Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the @NBCNews side, there are big thanks in order to a super-talented team who turned this feature into a reality, led by @thebrandedgirl, @seenigel, @oldman_muccari and @jiachuanwu. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, here's a "Biden Makes a Sun Belt Breakthrough" scenario where he ends up doing great w/ both white college graduates & Latinos and defeats Trump w/ 388 EVs, including TX/GA. https://t.co/NxtZ0RNgCJ via @NBCNewsGraphics — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now a disclaimer: groups aren't monolithic and swings are never perfectly uniform! For example, since '16, Trump has likely improved more among Hispanic voters in FL than in AZ. But, these tools are designed to give users a general idea of how states move together (or not). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now a disclaimer: groups aren't monolithic and swings are never perfectly uniform! For example, since '16, Trump has likely improved more among Hispanic voters in FL than in AZ. But, these tools are designed to give users an idea of how states move (or don't move) together. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The key takeaway: if 2016's rates of turnout/support by education/race were applied to 2020's demographic realities, population change *alone* would be enough to hand FL/MI/PA/WI - and the presidency - to Joe Biden. https://t.co/Ov3KKRB8Vk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The featured race/education groups that you can adjust [thanks sliders!] are: 1) White, non-college 2) White, college graduate 3) Black/African-American 4) Hispanic/Latino 5) Asian/other Featured age groups: 1) 18-29 2) 30-44 3) 45-64 4) 65+ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, introducing @NBCNews's "Swing the Election!" It allows you to adjust turnout/vote choice shares by either race/education OR [toggle] age groups to estimate Electoral outcomes (the default is set to 2016's levels). https://t.co/Kv7mouJ2Wt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, introducing @NBCNews's "Swing the Election!" It allows you to adjust turnout/vote choice shares by either race/education OR age groups to estimate Electoral outcomes (the default is set to 2016's levels). agehttps://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To that end, we've created not one, but two! exciting features that allow you to "Swing the Vote:" 1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience 2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more in-depth data. Warning: *election super-nerds only* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To that end, we've created not one, but two! exciting features that allow you to "Swing the Vote:" 1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience 2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more detailed data. Warning: *election super-nerds only* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The result: a tool that allows YOU to "choose your own 2020 adventure" and visualize how changes in demographic turnout rates & vote preference interact with the Electoral College. In other words, America could use a good swingometer. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alright, a *reveal thread:* At a time when people want definitive models/answers about what's going to happen - and truth is it could range from a 400+ EV "blue GA/TX" landslide to a nightmare PA "naked ballot" catastrophe - I've wrestled w/ where we can add the most value. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@richdicriscio no but that would be pretty cool — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who's ready for the big reveal in the next hour? Drumroll please... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, Biden is in a good position in polls right now. But even if Dem/other voter education succeeds in cutting the "naked ballot" rate from ~5% to 2%, and 2.5 million PA voters cast mail ballots, that's 50,000 invalidated ballots. Trump's 2016 PA margin was 44,292. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, Biden is in a good position in polls right now. But even if Dem/other voter education succeeds in cutting the "naked ballot" rate from ~5% to 2%, and 2.5 PA voters cast mail ballots, that's 50,000 invalidated ballots. Trump's 2016 PA margin was 44,292. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the core of the PA "naked ballot" controversy is this: are Republicans prepared to deal with the societal consequences of the presidency being decided by the invalidation of 80k-120k mail ballots on a technicality? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What about false victory claims by people not buying ads? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One of the only silver linings for Trump in this poll: just 13% of respondents say the Coronavirus is the most important issue to their vote, down from 20% in July. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking new national @QuinnipiacPoll (LVs): Biden 52% Trump 42% (same as 9/2 poll) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

👀Share of African-Americans who are "definitely motivated to vote"👀.... Ages 60+: 78% Ages 18-29: 29% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Younger Black voters are not as reliably Democratic as older ones. https://t.co/2f2ewPVBTJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: One thing that seems pretty real: Arizona to the left of Florida. It was true in 2018. With the exception of a fleeting peri… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: 🚨Rating Change this morning at @CookPolitical🚨 #COSen moved to Lean Democrat https://t.co/IEdwWTa7AQ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: ABC/Post has Trump ahead by 4 point in Florida and 1 point in Arizona. Considering the quality of the pollster, they're argu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New for @NBCNews: Since 2016, Trump's demographic base - non-college whites - has declined 3% as a share of eligible voters. That *alone* could cost him reelection. https://t.co/doyuX0Ohbq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: In 2018, Ted Cruz beat Beto O'Rourke by 215,000 votes in a 53% voter turnout election. Since then, 824,179 new voters… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By flouting public health guidelines, Trump is betting he can generate enough imagery to make it look like “everything’s fine” that more and more voters start to believe it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s win in 2016 required the gradual normalization of Donald Trump. Trump’s reelection will require gradual normalization/acceptance of living in a pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is the story I was referencing earlier, and exactly the kind of info PA's first-time mail voters need. In June, 5% of Washington Co. (SW PA)'s mail ballots came back naked. — PolitiTweet.org