Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Something everyone needs to be prepared for: viral, propagandistic and false insinuations of election misconduct. This is an especially complicated, fraught election for election officials to administer. Mistakes will be made - and overwhelmingly *not* out of nefarious intent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also extremely unusual: DOJ releasing *for whom* military ballots were cast, especially before the matter has been fully investigated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are, however, two easy opportunities to neutralize Trump attacks I’m surprised the Biden campaign *hasn’t* taken so far: 1) go to Miami and give an anti-Putin/communism speech 2) tout support from a multi-racial coalition of sheriffs/police chiefs in swing state ads — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On Election Night, no one: “Joe Biden would have this in the bag right now, except back in September he called a press lid to do debate prep.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The main argument for FL vs. AZ: African-American share (14.5% vs 4.4%). But the white vote is also far more polarized in FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: New: I dug into ballots rejected for lack of secrecy envelopes, or "naked" ballots in Pennsylvania — there have been pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two other big reasons I’m more bullish on Biden’s chances in AZ than FL: 1) AZ’s vote is a lot more metropolitan (no real north FL/Panhandle, though Mohave Co. and the Villages are similar I guess) 2) AZ’s Latinos tend to be of Mexican rather than Cuban ancestry — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ and FL are demographically similar in a lot of ways (Hispanic share, seniors, etc.). But one thing going for Dems in AZ as opposed to FL: a much higher share of Asian/Native American/other eligible voters (7.1% vs. 3.3%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There’s gotta be a more flattering photo of this R candidate his campaign could’ve used. #ME02 https://t.co/CiznkfocHR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Real_BenShapiro Just one scenario...also think it's possible Biden gets 17 million more votes than Clinton. Mainly I think turnout's just going to be way up from '16 in general. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By the way, the only Trump '16 turf Biden flips blue in this Dem nightmare scenario: Omaha's #NE02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's why it's possible - though unlikely - Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million! and still win reelection by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/uKyLNVNUQT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PatrickRuffini Except, their movement from 2016 to 2020, in an overwhelming number of polls, has been anti-Trump (or perhaps anti-Clinton to pro-Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is this doable for Trump? I'd argue it's *likely.* But the problems for Trump are...1) today, Biden's winning a much higher share of non-college whites than Clinton did and 2) both college whites and non-whites are likely to spike in turnout as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting finding: to offset non-college whites' decline as a share of adult citizens since '16, Trump would need to boost their turnout from 55% to ~60% *just to get back to* 306 Electoral votes. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/VNe2WrDx4w — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting finding: just to offset non-college whites' decline as a share of adult citizens since '16, Trump would need to boost their turnout from 55% to ~60% just to get back to 306 Electoral votes. https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu https://t.co/oLddhAJ9JC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FAQ: a few have asked but no, the term “swingometer” is not a reference to Jerry Falwell, Jr. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Among the least persuasive arguments I ever hear from candidates/campaigns: "our early vote numbers look really good." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @steveschale pointed out, Duval, FL should be on this list. Btw, there are a few on here I consider *very* likely flips, including Seminole, Johnson, Morris and Chesterfield. There are others I consider real reaches for Biden, including Ada, Collin and Spokane. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: New from me in HARRISBURG: https://t.co/tz3DOrQQb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: “The media are right to brace the public for a week or more of counting. But preaching patience is different from predicti… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ashleymoirDC: 🚨 FOX NEWS POLLS 🚨 NV: Biden 52%, Trump 41% OH: Biden 50%, Trump 45% PA: Biden 51%, Trump 44% All among likely voters — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

deleting this b/c people don't understand sarcasm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also amazing this ballot allows you to vote in #MS01, #MS02 and #MS03. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few notable, historically red counties I think Biden has decent-to-excellent chances to flip blue: Maricopa, AZ Butte, CA Seminole, FL Ada, ID Dallas, IA Johnson, KS Kent, MI Morris, NJ New Hanover, NC Collin, TX Tarrant, TX Williamson, TX Chesterfield, VA Spokane, WA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This should be filed in one of those "bizarre state laws" books. #MN02 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Gassman3268 They're counted in both columns — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If that turns out to be true, Biden would likely be the first Dem to *narrow* the Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap in three decades. https://t.co/5WSqdiXgoz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CharlotteAlter: Ads like this are why @DanCrenshawTX is at the vanguard of the next generation of leadership in the GOP https://t.co/eR… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Whoa. How much did it cost to make this ad? https://t.co/56fiYcxpKI — PolitiTweet.org