Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Mark your calendars: the incomparable @SteveScully will be moderating a lively discussion about 2020's U.S. House races with yours truly, Sunday, Oct. 25th on @cspanwj. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Ehh. More likely he's panicking, is suffering from some lingering effects of COVID, is surrounded by people giving him b… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big news in #MN02. @CookPolitical rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@j_m_fanning @RadioFreeTom I'll be working for @NBCNews's decision desk team on 11/3, but I hold Fox's in high esteem. Led by @arnonmishkin, Fox's team is one of the most statistically rigorous, empirically-minded teams in the business. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Smart visit for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: I'm 100% in favor of this rule for 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

These mistakes do happen - and they're human error, not fraud. The important thing is that they're caught in time & voters are notified. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @KlugeCtr: Beyond the Presidential Election: The Battle for the House and Senate with @julia_azari and @Redistrict is now available! htt… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tune into @MSNBC's @mitchellreports in a few minutes, where we'll be discussing 2020's top bellwether counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JoshSchwerin We'll see who's right, but it doesn't really hold water that Trump has a better shot in #NE02 than he has in FL/PA/MI/WI given that whites are considerably less college-educated in all four of those than they are in Omaha. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JoshSchwerin Care to explain why? Biden's leading comfortably in virtually all the #NE02 polls we're seeing, public and private. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I think you erroneously misplaced #NE02 in this graphic, might want to correct. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bottom line: the single best bang for either candidate's buck in TX right now isn't expensive Houston/DFW markets - it's probably Spanish language ads in South Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

File away for future book, the "The 2020 Gray Revolt." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words: if Biden were gaining anywhere near as much ground among TX Hispanics as he is among TX's suburban whites - or even winning Obama '12 type margins among them - he might be on track to win, narrowly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden lead among TX Hispanics in recent polls: UT/Texas Tribune (10/4): 54%-37% UMass-Lowell (9/25): 49%-45% NYT/Siena (9/22): 57%-32% Quinnipiac (9/21): 51%-43% CBS/YouGov (9/18): 61%-30% Wide variation, but on balance probably wouldn't be large enough for Biden to win TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @evanasmith: Context for UT/@texastribune poll that shows @realDonaldTrump +5 over @joebiden in Texas 25 days out 2016: @realDonaldTrum… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, per @pewresearch, 7% of their 10,543 RV online panel either didn't answer or weren't yet sure of their voting mode. In some states, mail/early ballot tallies are expected to be reported at poll closure (i.e. FL, NC); in other battlegrounds, EDay votes likely reported first. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is precisely why most of the data you'll see thrown around about Dems' massive mail request/return rate advantage is utterly meaningless. We just don't have a prior for 2020's voting mode polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI: if you're working the polls on EDay and it feels like a lot more Trump supporters are showing up, that's because...they will be. Mail (39%): 69%-27% Biden Election Day (33%): 63%-31% Trump Early in-person (21%): 55%-40% Biden Per @PewResarch: https://t.co/5wwtpa62uK https://t.co/aSz5UI6mKb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ClareMalone: I wrote about the challenges that we, in the "reality-based community" will face in the days following the election. It's… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NY11 update: not to be outdone by Rep. Max Rose (D), GOP super PAC drops its own f*** bomb on Staten Island. https://t.co/cceKkZTJhL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Key @pewresearch chart: Biden leads Trump 52%-42% overall, but unprecedented partisan polarization between absentee/mail voters (39% of all), early in-person voters (21%) and Election Day voters (33%). Per survey, 7% still unsure which method they’ll use. https://t.co/yvjOYjQFSG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another big finding: Biden leads Trump 49%-26% among 2016 Johnson/Stein voters, per @pewresearch, as well as 54%-38% among those who didn’t cast ballots in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sorry, should have noted Biden also leading 55%-40% among early in person, per @pewresearch. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also interesting: @pewresearch finds that of the 5% of RVs who support Jorgensen/Hawkins, they would lean Trump over Biden 54%-42% if forced to choose - suggesting their presence might actually aid Biden? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @pewresearch poll: Biden leads 69%-27% among those who plan to vote by mail, Trump leads 63%-31% among those who plan to vote on Election Day. https://t.co/5wwtpa62uK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tempting to read a lot into these stats, but keep in mind: 1) It's possible ~22% of *all* 2020 voters won't have voted in 2016 2) These figures don't always include voters who have moved across state lines — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BresPolitico: McConnell avoids visiting White House over its handling of coronavirus. ⁦@marianne_levine⁩ https://t.co/vsKhYFQoNa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are definitely more effective & artful ways I've heard Dems dodge the question, such as: "You want to talk about court-packing? Let's talk about Trump/McConnell packing the court with judges who want to overturn Roe/pre-existing conditions," etc. — PolitiTweet.org