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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Proud to have played a part in @FiveThirtyEight's '16 coverage, and it's hard to take issue with its model today. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One thing about 2016 is it wasn't just that our model gave Trump a better chance than other models/conventional wis… https://t.co/A8dhHgWs3U
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Also: to the extent there are still undecided voters - and there aren't very many of them compared to 2016! - they skew young and Hispanic/Latino. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One fascinating takeaway is that Biden's 12% lead over Trump is the same size as in June/July, but: 1) far fewer undecideds today (54%-42% vs. 52%-40%) 2) Biden's average lead has expanded by 4% since June/July among seniors & Hispanics — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To be clear, "final 2016 polls" are via @Nate_Cohn/@UpshotNYT's estimates and this chart is my running average of 2020 national live-interview poll crosstabs, including NYT/Siena, CNN, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ, Fox, Marist/PBS, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Suffolk and Grinnell/Selzer. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New Marist/PBS & NBC/WSJ polls bring us to a critical mass of October live-interview national polls, and to me Biden's gains appear to be pretty even across the board (except for Black voters, where there wasn't much room to grow). https://t.co/d8JFN75JEy — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Four days in, and reported wait times at 7/9 Gwinnett early voting locations are now down to less than an hour. https://t.co/kSIU5E0PLq — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Facts: 1) Gwinnett Co., GA has *nine* advance voting centers open 9-12 hours a day, including weekends, between 10… https://t.co/D0c6nRANJU
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @stphnfwlr: It's been about 24 hours and it *seems* like lines are shorter - though we won't know until the day's data comes in if it's… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @stphnfwlr: The Georgia Secretary of State's office says* it has fixed a bandwidth/capacity issue with the state's voter registration sy… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Lindsey Graham holds modest lead in the race for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, according a new Times/Siena poll. Graham lea… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Now that would've been a good headline. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Kitt @MikePKitt
@Redistrict It’s the Sumter of 69
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It wasn't my word choice, but the median age in Sumter is 68.9... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — PolitiTweet.org
Rod Rose @RodRose2
@Redistrict @NBCPolitics @NBCNews “Old folks county”? Could you be more condescending?
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New for @NBCNews: Looking for a canary in a coal mine? This one FL county could instantly tell us if Trump's in deep trouble on election night. https://t.co/uiMK0KPUCR — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ryanmatsumoto1: An interesting set of questions from the new @NBCNews / @WSJ national poll: Compared to 4 years ago, my family and I a… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Imagine how much higher the already-historic GA early vote totals would be if not for bandwidth issues that require 4+ minutes to check in a single voter, in many instances. https://t.co/nKh8UIUyby — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New NBC/WSJ (10/9-12, RVs): Biden 53% Trump 42%https://t.co/2aGC60JDSF — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Portrait title: “When your last stand is the Grand Strand” — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
A nice family portrait of NC/SC heading into the last night of interviews in SC https://t.co/B4qN19HXOB
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@smithrowsey @QuinnipiacPoll yes, this is a poll where they ask 1) how and 2) for whom people will vote — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Beyond just the topline, @QuinnipiacPoll's Georgia numbers by voting method are pretty vertigo-inducing: Early in-person (39%): Biden 57%, Trump 39% Mail ballot (30%): Biden 71%, Trump 22% Election Day (31%): Trump 71%, Biden 26% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
First time I've seen this all week for any Gwinnett location... https://t.co/I4Tc8NVvhp — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Joe Biden and Cal Cunningham maintain a lead in North Carolina, according to a new Times/Siena poll Biden leads Trump, 46 to… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@tbonier @TheDemocrats Except right now https://t.co/12gJXgkgdk takes me to a “bad gateway” and when I do get through it doesn’t even tell me my Election Day polling location — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @jbouie: "the good ole days of segregation" — PolitiTweet.org
Aaron Rupar @atrupar
Lindsey Graham to ACB: "You're not aware of any effort to go back to the good old days of segregation by a legislat… https://t.co/H5KLQo95xz
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Final 2016 polls among seniors, per @NYTupshot average: Trump 49%, Clinton 44% September 2020 polls among seniors, per my average: Biden 51%, Trump 46% October 2020 polls among seniors, average so far: Biden 54%, Trump 43% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @NateSilver538: Gallup has a net +53 on whether voters are more enthusiastic or less enthusiastic than usual to vote, which I believe is… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In 2016, about 137 million Americans cast votes. I'd estimate we're on pace for a record-shattering 150-160 million in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This is how you do it. — PolitiTweet.org
stephen fowler @stphnfwlr
Henry County (my home county!) is adding more early voting sites ahead of original plans in response to longer line… https://t.co/dIRXRPulgI
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @UpshotNYT: A question lots of people are asking right now. https://t.co/8oELXXjSMe — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @MadelineRConway: POTUS under the bus alert https://t.co/NxDaEDJdEh — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
You can dismiss a WV poll all you want - until you realize that large swaths of PA & OH are culturally an extension of WV. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's true that in 2016, this same pollster found Trump leading Clinton 49%-31% in WV, and Trump went on to win by 42%. But that poll was taken in mid-August, a period when Clinton was routinely posting wide national leads. And Clinton was at 31%; today they have Biden at 39%. — PolitiTweet.org
