Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The undertold administrative nightmare for election officials everywhere: hyper-concerned voters submitting multiple applications *and* voters who applied for mail ballots changing their mind and wanting to vote in-person instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Think I'll go back to sleep (j/k). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

About where we'd think the race is. @CookPolitical rating: Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Republicans lead in Alaska, according to a new Times/Siena poll, as voters sour on the president but hesitate to embrace Dem… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: Rs can rightfully take pride in their recent net registration gains (March-Nov. '20), which far outpace the breakdown over the comparable period in '16. But the *overall* '16-'20 pro-R shift isn't indicative of a sea change in vote intention. https://t.co/DQ2M2oQIWT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In FL's other 34 counties (where 94% of FL's voters live), Democrats' narrow reg. edge has remained pretty stable, ticking down from 38%-35% to 37%-35%. And Dems have seen modest encouraging growth in FL's suburbs, including counties like Seminole, Osceola, Duval, Orange, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fast forward to 2020: the final data shows the GOP voter registration advantage in these 33 counties has grown to 48%-32%. These aren't new Trump voters. These are existing Trump voters formalizing their party change from D to R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In November 2016, these 33 counties collectively had a narrow 42%-40% GOP voter registration advantage. But here's how they *voted:* Trump: 369,045 (67%) Clinton: 170,871 (31%) Btw, Trump's statewide margin was 112,911 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Brief thread: here's why I don't put a ton of stock into the *overall* pro-R registration trend in FL from '16 to '20. Take the 33 least populous of FL's 67 counties, which are mostly rural and located in the north/panhandle (aka the Deep South)... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A ratings disaster is what voters appear to want right now. https://t.co/zyW1CCzYLn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On election night, every pundit: “You know, [anchor name], this presidential race was remarkably stable until we got to those dueling NBC/ABC town halls, which totally upended things.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Strange tip of the day: in response to my op-ed listing Marshall, IA as one of the top 10 bellwether counties in 2020, I got an email from a volunteer alerting me to a *30 acre* sign for one of the candidates going up there this Saturday. This sign war is getting out of hand... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: per @ElectProject crunching of @GaSecofState data, 163k more GA voters voted early in person on Thursday, smashing Wednesday's record. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Most Dem-trending counties in FL, by '16-'20 registration margin shift: 1. Seminole +4% 2. Alachua +3% 3. Duval +3% 4. Orange +2% 5. Leon +2% Most GOP-trending FL counties (w/ 100k+ registrants): 1. Citrus +9% 2. Hernando +6% 3. Sumter +5% 4. Volusia +5% 5. Bay +5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Need proof Dixiecrats are still switching over to R? In north central FL's tiny Lafayette Co., Dems held a 59%-34% registration advantage in 2016 and the county voted for Trump 82%-15%. Today, Rs hold a 66%-27% registration advantage there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LuisMij13134485 This is *net* change, not solely new registrants. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: this involves a lot of older, Trump-voting white conservative Ds either dying or formally switching to R, *and* a lot of new white Republicans registering. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Net new FL voter registrations by party/race, Nov. '16-Nov. '20: White (+610,951): 68% GOP, 7% Dem, 25% NPA/Other Hispanic (+475,972): 31% Dem, 26% GOP, 42% NPA/Other Black (+214,789): 62% Dem, 4% GOP, 34% NPA/Other Other (+276,384): 37% Dem, 24% GOP, 39% NPA/Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still, would I rather be a Dem w/ a four point FL polling lead heading into the final 20 days, or a GOP president w/ a favorable recent FL voter registration trend? I'd rather be the Dem. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another thing I've always thought: the Clinton FL ground effort was actually really impressive in '16 - and without it, she would've lost by much more. Meanwhile, Trump ran virtually no Spanish language effort in '16, and this time his FL Hispanic outreach is much more robust. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcimaps: The time between August and October is normally a period when Democrats net tends of thousands of registrations. However, demo… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So a few takeaways: 1) Yes, FL Rs made inroads b/c Trump-voting registered Ds have formally switched to R *and* Rs have out-hustled Ds this year on new registrations 2) But FL's electorate has also gotten 2.7% less white since '16, and many young/non-whites registering as NPA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's the final Nov. 2020 FL voter breakdown by party and race (14,441,869 registrants): 37% Dem 36% GOP 27% NPA/Other 61.5% White 17.3% Hispanic 13.4% Black 7.8% Other Compare to Nov. 2016: 38% Dem 35% GOP 27% NPA/Other 64.2% White 15.7% Hispanic 13.4% Black 6.7% Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For reference, here's the story I wrote for @NBCNews a few weeks ago putting the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: https://t.co/XbwgXs5MUt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For reference, here's the @NBCNews story I wrote a few weeks back attempting to put the GOP's recent registration success in FL/NC/PA in context: https://t.co/XbwgXs5MUt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains: GOP: +344,465 Dem: +197,821 NPA/Other: +197,818 Compare to the same period in '16: GOP: +274,207 Dem: +307,961 NPA/Other: +220,857 Trump's '16 FL margin: 112,911 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ABCPolitics: The former top aide to Lauren Boebert, a Republican candidate for Congress on a rise within Trump's political sphere, host… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If anything, I think analysts tend to underrate the chances *Republicans* will be the ones disproportionately facing long lines/polling place chaos come 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JeffreyCook: News coming on #CO03 from @ABCPolitics — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DashingOne4 @FiveThirtyEight Read the bottom left headline in Nate's tweet. — PolitiTweet.org