Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Democrats gain in Georgia Senate races as the presidential contest remains deadlocked, per new NYT/Siena poll: Biden 45, Tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Total Trump votes cast in TX in 2016: 4,685,047 Total 2020 votes cast in TX as of last night: 4,706,398 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(Disclaimer: this suggests voter interest/intensity is way higher than in the past and we're headed for massive turnout - as we are everywhere - but not much beyond that.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: I love many things about RCP, but if you have an average and 1/3 of it consists of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage and 0%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Trump basically at his 2016 vote share w/ all groups but seniors. But, that’s not good enough when Biden is getting more th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More people have now early voted in TX than the number of people who voted for Donald Trump in TX in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: I will not over-interpret early voting. I will not over-interpret early voting. I will not over-interpret early voting. I w… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's my latest running average of demographic splits in national live-interview polls w/ new NYT/Siena added in. Biden's surged w/ 65+ between Sept. and Oct., but just a big a deal is the steady decline in undecided/third party since June/July (and vs. '16, of course). https://t.co/TZDBta582B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Most unique House race dynamic might be #IN05, where Christina Hale (D) has run as a "lifelong Hoosier" while the DCCC and state Sen. Victoria Spartz (R) have aired multiple ads featuring Spartz, a Ukrainian immigrant, speaking w/ a thick accent. https://t.co/Gs53rDHcsB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final weeks of 2016: massive Dem denial about district-level polling that showed Trump breaking through (see replies to this tweet). Final weeks of 2020: massive Dem paranoia, even though district-level polling consistently shows Trump running well behind his '16 margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Asked one GOP consultant what he would advise the president to do in the final two weeks to turn things around & help down-ticket Rs. Answer: "Distribute Trump-brand tequila." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actually, check the record. District-level polling at this point in '16 showed flashing red warning signs for Clinton in areas w/ large white working-class populations - but much of it went ignored. https://t.co/Da2hFcEhIJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PRandallcares @bluevirginia @notlarrysabato i just don't think we'll know much until we have full counties reporting in many states (i.e., well past their 2016 votes counted)...regardless of whether they're in swing states or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PeterHamby Sure, but it's not just the RGV. What does Biden's share/turnout look like among millions of low-income Hispanic voters in Houston, DFW, San Antonio, El Paso, etc.? Polls I've seen show Trump performing as well as '16 or perhaps a bit better. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Again, @Twitter's willingness to let blatant falsehoods like this spread for 15+ hours tells you everything you need to know about social media giants' impotence when it comes to combating election disinformation. Report, remove. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn a few — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There is a suburban GOP-held House seat that Romney won by 15%+ and Trump won by 10%+. Today, at least two private surveys I've seen have Trump *down* 10%+ there. In the past few weeks, I've heard the word "bloodbath" uttered in multiple convos w/ GOP pollsters/ad makers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Taniel There are plenty of rural/R counties that were even higher, but I picked Collin b/c it's a comparable size (and high-turnout). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Olaray202 @CrassPolitical Not saying Collin is a Dem problem, in fact, I've made the point it's a bellwether and Biden could actually win it this time. The problem for Dems is the comparably low turnout in low-income Hispanic areas, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @seungminkim: Oh my // Cornyn initially described his relationship with Trump as “maybe like a lot of women who get married and think th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, the Rio Grande Valley (86% Hispanic) had 659k eligible voters and cast just 279k votes (42% turnout). Meanwhile, Collin County (white-collar DFW burbs) had 566k eligible voters and cast 356k votes (64% turnout). That's the problem for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The major determinant of the presidential race in TX, in my opinion, will be Dem turnout/performance in low-income Hispanic areas *without* Whole Foods Markets. That's why I'll be watching targeting of Dem ads/high-profile visits in places like RGV, Laredo etc. in next 16 days. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Over the long term, this is totally unsustainable for TX Republicans unless they can reverse their backslide w/ suburban professionals in major metros. The only question is whether 2020 is the tipping point, and right now it's a close call. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2018, Beto O'Rourke won TX's 11 counties w/ a Whole Foods Market by 802k votes & lost everywhere else by 1,016k votes, for a loss of 214k overall. Since 2018, TX's 11 Whole Foods counties have added a net 765k voters, while TX's other 243 counties have added just 396k. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden is outperforming Clinton's margins by 8-10 points pretty steadily, consistent w/ a 10-12 point national lead. The exceptions: low-income Hispanic districts (where Trump is doing better than '16) & high-college suburban districts (catastrophic 10+ point Trump losses). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Terrific point by @ForecasterEnten. Might add that the only thing disrupting an eight point uniform swing (but not by much) is Trump's overperformance vs. '16 w/ Cuban voters in FL, but overall this is remarkable consistency. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kabir_here: AZ: Biden +3 WI: Biden +5 Mail ballots pouring in, with remaining voters saying they've decided Biden voters say big reas… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Honestly might have to give this Biden barn sign a B- for poor street-level visibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Stay tuned to see how the Trump campaign responds in next few days... — PolitiTweet.org