Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jstephencarter I (and plenty of others) were talking about it. https://t.co/1lMe06bEjA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A terrific look at #VA05 by @charlottewords. https://t.co/0tVkHalIR2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Omg, I was worried this would happen. #MO02 https://t.co/AW36Ez5ixn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, @mmckinnon and @SHO_TheCircus came over to my patio and we nerded out over polls and bluegrass (sadly, the fiddle didn't make the cut). https://t.co/P0E5vh0Kvt https://t.co/iJtnygj8no — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MCRT_DC: With 8 days until Election Day, @deanhingson asked Cook Political Report elections guru Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) for tips… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MaxMMarin: On a press tour of Philadelphia’s ballot processing equipment in a 125,000-square-foot, heavily guarded warehouse in the cit… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Looking under the hood, quite a big gender gap among Hispanics in our Texas poll https://t.co/R0FSdtXauR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The irony is that Trump may absolutely wreck down-ballot Rs in purple major metro suburbs (DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin), while there are virtually no competitive down-ballot races in the heavily Dem/Hispanic areas where Trump has made *gains* since '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The story in TX is pretty consistent: Trump has plummeted since '16 in white-collar suburbs, w/ potentially catastrophic implications for GOP control of congressional seats & the state house. But Trump's modest gains w/ low-income Hispanics (RGV, etc.) may save him statewide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Donald Trump still leads in Texas, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state, as strength among nonwhite voters d… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ktumulty Here are the top TX counties by '16-'20 voter registration growth (statewide growth was +12%): 1. Hays +26% 2. Williamson +26% 3. Comal +25% 4. Rockwall +24% 5. Parker +22% 6. Denton +22% 7. Kaufman +21% 8. Collin +21% 9. Fort Bend +19% 10. Guadalupe +19% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ktumulty Yup. Here are your top TX early voting counties as a share of the '16 vote, *adjusted for registration growth since '16:* 1. Denton 82% 2. Galveston 82% 3. Hays 82% 4. Collin 82% 5. Brazoria 81% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's also evidence that major problems w/ election administration that hamper voting access aren't necessarily correlated w/ red vs. blue control of local or state government. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Denton and Williamson counties in TX just became the second and third in the nation after Hays (to my knowledge) to surpass their *total* 2016 votes cast. And there's still a week of voting left. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is some cold truth from @AOC. If NYC were in a swing state, its election administration would be a national outrage. https://t.co/Hu7nNIR4G4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden by 0.3 in the new AJC poll of Georgia, 46.5-46.2 Ossoff by 1, 46-45 https://t.co/i21Cmot4wo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Some advice: partisan internal polls are sometimes the only data we’ll see in a race and can offer good insight! But they’re more trustworthy if a pollster is willing to put their name behind their numbers and has an established track record. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Data worth disregarding, in my book: purported “analytics department” internals from DCCC/NRCC, orgs which exist to hype their party’s candidates. If you’re a candidate up one in this type of “poll”...you’re probably losing. https://t.co/67tnzeAQku — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Amazing how many things Trump referenced in the debate that most voters have zero idea about, except for voracious consumers of online conservative media. "Big man," etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: if you're a Dem who's into doomscrolling this timeline, sorry but you're just going to have to go back four years. https://t.co/OtK8EJi6f0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And here's what the district-level polls were telling us five days out from Election Day 2016. https://t.co/SnIRcftlcC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In case you're wondering, here's what we were talking about a week out from Election Day 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, virtually none of this assessment has anything to do with early turnout data, which tells us next to nothing about the vote preferences of the final electorate. It's based on a body of polling data that's fundamentally different from 2016's polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're looking for a horse race narrative right now, you're not going to find it here. There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently. Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear: 1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '16 2) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '16 3) District-level polls (which showed big problems for Clinton in '16) back up national/state polls — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The article raises specter that "surveys can’t account for possibilities like voter suppression" while making next to no effort to examine those concerns. Also, comparing '20 polls to '16 exit polls? Sometimes NYT writers would be well-served by checking in w/ @UpshotNYT first. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you think Biden is about to win Philly by only 73%-24% after Clinton won it 82%-15% in 2016, I've got a Ben Franklin bridge to sell you. We've seen high-quality polls show Trump running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, NEPA, Lehigh Valley, Allegheny, Harrisburg, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, this is a poor take. Biden is not about to run 10 points behind Clinton in Philly proper. Almost all PA district-level polls (w/ much larger samples) show Trump badly underperforming his '16 margins all over the state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @pkcapitol: This @JonathanTamari is a tour-de-force for political players, reporters and activists that want to understand why PA is the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not big on product placement, but not gonna lie that TJ’s rotation of Hardywood’s bourbon barrel series has help me get thru this election. https://t.co/hjUrnz9zVm — PolitiTweet.org