Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: Texas's 38 electoral votes move from Lean R to Toss Up. Full analysis from @amyewalter: https://t.co/LL0dl3FW6l — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'll admit, today's poll has caused me to rethink my ordering of WI. Part of the challenge is we've seen a lot of strong congressional district-level data for Biden in MI/PA, but no competitive House races (or polls) in WI's burbs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley. Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A pretty clear sign Biden is well ahead in Bucks Co.'s #PA01 (a district Clinton won by 1% in '16): the D's closing message is that she's endorsed by Biden, while the R's closing message is that he's been endorsed by unions & environmental groups. https://t.co/MlyUogNvdd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@TravisCoClerk My preferred metric is the total votes you reported cast in the 2016 presidential race, since we're expecting a significantly lower undervote this year. Thanks for the great work you do. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, 468,720 is the total number of votes that were counted for the presidential race in 2016, which is the metric I’ve been using. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Travis Co., TX (Austin) just hit 470,535 votes cast, surpassing its 2016 total of 468,720 a full week before Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Travis Co., TX (Austin) just hit 470,535 votes cast, surpassing its total 2016 total of 468,720 a full week before Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is far from the worst part of it, but the district-level polls we're seeing suggest Trump is no longer competitive in Omaha's #NE02 anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another important thing for media to communicate: for a variety of reasons, provisional ballots are going to be off the charts vs. past years in many states - and they require extra time to process/adjudicate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Possible fourth option: people whose only followers are hyper-politically engaged relentlessly imploring people to vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's the worst part of pre-election week Twitter? 1. Data-free hot takes about what the race "feels like on the ground" 2. People trying to divine election outcomes based on early turnout data 3. Friends who don't really follow politics suddenly chiming in with sure opinions — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @loujacobson: Now in front of the paywall: My latest state legislature handicapping for the Cook Political Report: Eight chambers shift… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn Not that controversial to me! It's plausible, and I do wonder if my PA/WI thinking is a bit skewed by the presence of heavily polled competitive districts in PA and lack thereof in WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, when TV talking heads tell you "71 million votes are already locked in!" as evidence their candidate is going to win...yeah, the people who have already voted were probably never the persuadable ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, when TV talking heads tell you "71 millions of votes are already locked in!" as evidence that their candidate is going to win...yeah, the people who have already voted were probably never the persuadable ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, when TV talking heads tell you "71 millions of votes are already locked in!" as evidence that they're candidate is going to win...yeah, the people who have already voted were probably never the persuadable ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One thing the data can tell us now: just how partisan early voters are. Just 21% of the 6.4 million FL voters who have voted so far are unaffiliated/other, vs. 33% of the 8.0 million who haven't yet cast ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bamadavis14 Not if Biden also wins AZ by 10 points! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hey, what do you know, it's some Shy Biden voters. https://t.co/ZVNIVb0y9o — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why does it feel "so different on the ground" in PA? Maybe because this op-ed is reported from in front of a literal Trump Store. https://t.co/wETsOROLB1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@samstein In both '16 and '18, systemic underestimation of Dems in Southwest, underestimation of GOP in Midwest & FL. https://t.co/lgm01ZlNnc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're wondering why I'm more bullish on AZ than WI for Biden, I've tried to explain here: https://t.co/gvMGqTFGGL https://t.co/iETwGNtsYH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Updated rough personal rankings of the Trump '16 turf likeliest to flip to Biden: 1. Nebraska's 2nd CD 2. Michigan 3. Pennsylvania 4. Arizona 5. Wisconsin 6. Florida 7. North Carolina 8. Maine's 2nd CD 9. Georgia 10. Iowa 11. Texas 12. Ohio — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: Subscribe now and get 20% off by using the discount code REDISTRICT: https://t.co/OlrTxbHPVg https://t.co/ZM4MJjce5a — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More than 71 million early votes cast so far (over half of the total votes cast in 2016), per @WinWithJMC. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We'll be watching Miami-Dade closely in the remaining early vote *and* on 11/3 to see if Dems can bring their turnout into closer alignment w/ elsewhere in FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcimaps: Miami-Dade holds the futures of both parties in its hands, and right now the GOP leads in turnout. While Democrats need black… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. If you want the inside scoop on the specifics of what district-level polls are telling us, do yourself a favor and pick up a subscription to @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org