Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The political version of hell is scheduled for next Wednesday, when Dems are freaking out (and GOPers rejoicing) over vote totals that show Trump with large leads in Upper Midwestern states - but it's a mirage b/c millions of mail ballots have yet to be counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @pamelafessler: Worth noting all the other states that allow ballots to arrive 3 or more days after Election Day, including Kansas, Miss… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TL;DR: we're at a point where a lot of (to use a political science term) trash polling has taken over the public Pennsylvania averages. Expect that to change in by the weekend; then we can reassess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Would I rather trust those five polls? Or the 20+ October district-level polls I've seen, conducted by both Dem/GOP groups making major $$ decisions, showing Trump running 7-12 points behind his '16 margins in nearly all corners of PA? Think I'll go with the latter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's see...what are the last five polling outfits in the RCP Pennsylvania average the past week? InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar, Reuters/Ipsos, Fox, Rasmussen. With the exception of Fox (Biden +5), not exactly the A team. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actually, let me amend: it requires the polls in PA, AZ *and* #NE02 to be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It kind of does require the polls in PA to be wrong... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The major TX counties with the *lowest* turnout of registered voters so far are mostly heavily Hispanic (as is typical): 1. Webb 31% 2. Cameron 38% 3. Bell 39% 4. El Paso 39% 5. Hidalgo 42% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The major TX counties (100k+ registrants) with the highest turnout of registered voters so far are all heavily suburban: 1. Montgomery 65% 2. Collin 62% 3. Williamson 62% 4. Comal 61% 5. Fort Bend 61% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Top TX counties in current '20 votes cast vs. '16 total votes cast (pop. growth a factor here): 1. Hays +20% 2. Montgomery +18% 3. Williamson +15% 4. Denton +14% 5. Comal +14% 6. Collin +12% 7. Fort Bend +11% 8. Rockwall +6% 9. Travis +6% 10. Guadalupe +5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive, unprecedented turnout there (and a lot of other places). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Be sure to read our final Senate overview out today... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's a good bet Texas will cast more votes *before* Election Day than it cast in the entire 2016 election. Right now, it's at over 93% of its 2016 total - the highest in the nation - with two days of early voting left. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's a good bet Texas will cast more votes *before* Election Day than it cast in the entire 2016 election. Right now, it's at over 93% of its 2016 total - the highest in the nation - with two days left of early voting left. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One other Austin observation: even if Rs were to hang on to the TX state House (and right now I think they're in deep trouble), they'd have little choice but to draw a new Dem district in Travis for 2022 to shore up surrounding GOP districts for another decade (h/t @nanisimo). https://t.co/0EP8mcFXJF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This might be the most garbage data take I've seen this month, and that's saying a lot. Do better, @thehill - get some standards. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: Travis Co. hit 494,704 votes cast today, surpassing both the 2016 total and the 2018 record for most votes ever cast in the county (and still two days of early voting and EDay to go). At least 10 other TX counties already above their '16 totals too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Expect a serious northern "red mirage" on 11/3 in counties like these... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is much more in line w/ other limited WI lower-level polling I've seen than the ABC/Post poll with Biden +17. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here come the final polls... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@grace_panetta Lol wasn't talking about you — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: Laws in every single US state give officials time after Election Day to fully canvass all the ballots (including late-ar… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Democrats takes the lead in Georgia, according to Monmouth Biden+4, 50-46 (previously Trump+2) Ossoff+2, 49-47 (previously P… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Personally, I think it's more likely we see Trump win the first batch of 80k+ votes by more like 66%-33%, which might put him on track for something like 68%-70% overall in Sumter and a very close race statewide in FL. But, we'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is my lone exception to the rule against hazardously over-interpreting batches of early results alone, and it's only because such an extreme % of Sumter's total vote is cast in advance of Election Day and counted quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, I'm adjusting my Sumter line. We're now likely to see 80k+ Sumter ballots reported shortly after 7pm on 11/3. If Trump is winning them by 63%-36% or less, that would be a terrible sign for his chances of winning FL/reelection (likely needs 67%+ in the final Sumter count). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Among the 72,695 Sumter voters who have cast ballots, they break down: 58% R 25% D 17% NPA/Other Here's the breakdown of the 32,917 Sumter registrants who *haven't* yet cast ballots: 53% R 21% D 26% NPA/Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although we know that Trump is likely to better in the EDay vote than the early vote virtually everywhere, there's not *that* huge a difference between the Sumter voters who have voted so far and those who haven't... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn lol...but would you publish them? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the fact that Trafalgar is publishing ridiculous ~60-person *crosstabs* of PA's 18 districts is the biggest tell they don't really know what they're doing. https://t.co/Pr1rYdg3RS — PolitiTweet.org