Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: pro-MAGA Don Bolduc (R) wins the #NHSEN GOP primary and will face Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: pro-MAGA Karoline Leavitt (R), 24, wins the GOP primary in #NH01, defeating 2020 nominee Matt Mowers (R) and others. That's probably good news for Rep. Chris Pappas (D), but for now #NH01 (PVI EVEN) is staying in Toss Up at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don Bolduc (R) has been crushing it in the Lakes Region but Chuck Morse (R) just got a good result out of the suburban southeast, winning Hampstead 51%-33%. It could be a close finish. #NHSEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's now looking up for Gov. Dan McKee (D) in the #RIGOV Dem primary, w/ a new ballot drop putting him ahead of Pelosi-endorsed CVS exec Helena Foulkes (D) 33%-30%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still looking good for pro-MAGA Don Bolduc (R) in #NHSEN GOP primary. Gov. Chris Sununu's endorsed candidate, Chuck Morse (R), is going to need a strong performance in his home base along I-93. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Seth Magaziner (D) wins the Dem primary for the open #RI02 and will face Allan Fung (R) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up, though the D+4 PVI of this seat gives Magaziner more upside. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's also a chance Dem meddling could produce a weak GOP candidate in #NH02, where Keene Mayor George Hansel (R) is locked in a tight race w/ more pro-Trump Robert Burns (R). A Burns win would be good news for Rep. Annie Kuster (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's early, but unvaxxed "America First" candidate Karoline Leavitt (R) is leading Kevin McCarthy-endorsed Matt Mowers (R) 32%-27% in the #NH01 GOP primary. A Leavitt win would probably be good news for Rep. Chris Pappas (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Initial results look promising for Don Bolduc (R) in #NHSEN. Chuck Morse (R) is close behind, but mostly thanks to more urban/high-college towns reporting first. Bolduc is ahead in Rochester, which is more reflective of NH's GOP electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jheil: New pod alert! With Election Day 8 weeks out, we have a double dose of @CookPolitical 🧠power on #HHW, as @amyewalter & @Redistri… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Those surprisingly strong polls for Dems you see in the same states where 2020 polls overestimated them? Probably another mirage (via @Nate_Cohn). https://t.co/dYs2FGcqlp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now that primary season is almost over, I’ve crunched the results for @CookPolitical. While the House GOP has veered towards Trump, Dems have tacked only marginally left. https://t.co/tu3W8XWQUI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In New York tonight. Anyone know any political data gurus who throw good parties? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Debate the merits of RCV all you want, but this much is clear: Sarah Palin has no one to blame but herself for losing a Trump +10 seat. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW @CookPolitical House ratings: if the 32 Toss Ups were to split evenly, Republicans would net 16 seats - roughly in the middle of our 10-20 seat range. https://t.co/mAdCOttOtp https://t.co/uNwvcyqYJs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: five House rating changes, all in Democrats' direction. Full analysis: https://t.co/bgzEWPHbhf https://t.co/ogfAkCNd3f — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@drewheineman Twitter's inability to get the joke never ceases to amaze. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind, the unexpired #AKAL term is only four months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The amount of land mass represented by House Democrats just went up by 104%. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: FYI, @Redistrict wrote about this very possibility of a Peltola beating Palin back in mid-August…https://t.co/CaIr1bhnUZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: in the wake of Mary Peltola's (D) defeat of Sarah Palin (R), @CookPolitical will be moving #AKAL's November rating from Likely R to Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I'm reading the blurry screen correctly, Peltola (D) was aided by a huge "exhaustion" rate among Begich voters. Begich's ballots broke down: Palin (R) 50.3% Peltola (D) 28.8% No second choice (exhaust): 20.9% In the end, Palin was so disliked #AKAL wasn't even that close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final margin: Peltola (D) defeats Palin (R) 51.5%-48.5% in the final round of ranked-choice. This is a huge victory and pickup for Dems, driven more by Palin's unpopularity than national trends. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Mary Peltola (D) defeats Sarah Palin (R) in the #AKAL special election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And in true Alaska style...the livestream has frozen. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And in a metaphor for the race, the #AKAL ranked-choice livestream begins w/ a sideways camera. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Any path to a Peltola upset likely depends on a high "exhaustion" rate of Nick Begich (R) ballots that didn't rank a second choice. Because this is the first time Alaska voters using ranked-choice, I don't think we have a great idea what the exhaustion rate will be. #AKAL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tune into @ak_elections livestream at 8pm ET to find out whether Sarah Palin (R) wins a seat in Congress or Mary Peltola (D) pulls off a ranked-choice upset. #AKAL https://t.co/y8UoK9s1MY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: 📣 Spread the word: political enthusiasts can now subscribe to the Cook Political Report with our new $99 election season… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the best "hard data" gauge of the current enviro is WA's 8/2 blanket primary, which featured higher turnout. As @SeanTrende et. al. have pointed out, Dems performed much better than 2010/2014, and almost as well as 2020 (but not quite). Graphic credit: @alflinn. https://t.co/IYmxl56jfb — PolitiTweet.org