Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Modeled party ID of the early vote drives clicks, but it's also driving an epidemic of deeply flawed takes. My advice: instead of getting worked up about it, select your beverage of choice and just wait for Election Night. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) update: we're up to 81,262 early votes cast out of 105,612 registered voters - a 77% turnout rate, the highest in the state. https://t.co/7hJkcln5TP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's quite possible Texas will cast more than 12 million votes in this election. That would be a massive increase after 8.96 million votes cast in 2016 and 8.37 million cast in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The final day of TX early voting was a relatively strong one in the most heavily Hispanic counties. Total votes cast in the six most populous border counties (El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, Starr, Maverick) jumped 9.3%, vs. 6.2% everywhere else in TX. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Largest increases in 2020 early votes cast vs. 2016 total votes cast (TX counties w/ 100k+ registrants only): 1. Hays +35% 2. Williamson +28% 3. Denton +28% 4. Comal +26% 5. Fort Bend +25% 6. Collin +24% 7. Travis +17% 8. Guadalupe +16% 9. Ellis +16% 10. Montgomery +16% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Morning update: Texas reporting 9,669,246 votes cast at the close of early voting. That's 57% of registered voters and 700,020 more votes than were cast in Texas in *all of 2016.* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Muhlenberg College with a final PA poll: Biden+5, 49-44. They were at +7 about a week ago https://t.co/e6u4b7PcK1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Retiring FL Rep. Francis Rooney (R) says here he’s an undecided voter. Based on my private conversations, I’d say 20 is a *conservative* estimate of the number of current House Rs who won’t be voting for Trump. https://t.co/NuKNkfcTxq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final 2016 @FoxNews poll: Clinton 48% Trump 44% Final 2020 @FoxNews poll: Biden 52% Trump 44% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just in: Travis Co., TX (Austin) reports 553,290 votes cast for the entire early voting period - 118% of the total votes it cast for president in 2016. And we’ve still got Election Day to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RalstonReports: That translates into a big day for Dems, who lose almost nothing off firewall in the South, which is over 80K with mail… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Turnout surge in the Valley today. Campaigns still matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden currently has a better chance to win (I'll reveal my own answer later): — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, we've known all along that Biden's most promising path to 270 isn't running up a huge turnout advantage among non-whites so much as winning a higher *share* of whites. The biggest obstacle to 270 for Trump remains defections of white women & seniors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few points: 1) Black & Latino turnout wasn't particularly great in '16, and even a modest increase vs. '16 would boost Biden 2) Polling has told us all along that Black/Latino Dems are more skeptical of VBM than white Dems https://t.co/v2pgwwZXbv — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. 56% of their sample was age 50+ and 74% had already voted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Missed this, but @StPetePolls this week found Biden leading 54%-43% in #FL13, a senior-heavy St. Pete/Clearwater seat that voted for Clinton 49.6% to 46.4% in 2016. https://t.co/aVabcyyaut — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breathtaking: we're likely on track for 100 million+ votes cast *before* Election Day, nearly double the @EACgov estimate of 57.2 million advance ballots cast in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mmurraypolitics: NBC/Marist poll of NC (among likely voters): Biden 52% Trump 46% Oct 25-28, +/- 4.7% Among registered voters, it's… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fayette County (SWPA) in 2016... Registered voters: 58% Dem, 33% GOP Presidential results: Trump 64%, Clinton 33% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not that I put any stock in phone-banking data, but Trump at only 30% of registered Ds would be modestly good news for Biden in quite a few PA counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The U.S. just surpassed 85 million early votes cast, per @WinWithJMC. That's already 62% of the 137.1 million total votes cast in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a fabulous resource by @baseballot and @elena___mejia. Worth bookmarking. https://t.co/amGo0BjJgH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Sumter Co., FL just hit 78,778 votes cast, becoming the first in the state to surpass its total 2016 votes cast. It's already at 75% turnout of registered voters - the highest I know of outside of auto-VBM states. https://t.co/uiMK0KPUCR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, slated for Monday. And there will be rating changes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Four days out, and we're on the cusp of another major evolution in how we view America's electoral map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You might think I'm joking, but New York state's final revised 2016 election results were released on August 17, 2017: https://t.co/smlM9jCZTM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

June, probably. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is how you run a 21st century election. NYC might call itself the city that never sleeps, but Houston is putting it to shame. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm comparing to *entire* 2016 votes cast, so we might be on track for a 3 million+ vote (30%+) increase. And actually, it's more like 76k w/ Travis Co.'s new data thrown in. — PolitiTweet.org