Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2016 presidential results in Chicago, IL: Clinton 912,943 (84%) Trump 135,317 (12%) 2020 presidential results in Chicago, IL: Biden 932,556 (83%) Trump 179,278 (16%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: so far in the count, Trump's Philadelphia vote total has increased by 20% vs. '16, while Biden's vote total is up just 0.6% vs. Clinton's. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Dems cheated in Philly, they did a really poor job because it's the only place in PA where their winning margin declined '16-'20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ByChrisBrennan: In one of the most Democratic cities in the country, President-elect Joe Biden’s support was roughly flat, even as Pres… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I were to guess based on what I've seen/heard, I'd guess Biden in #CA48, #IL14, #MI11, #NV03, #NY18, #NY19, #TX15 and #TX28, and Trump in #IL17, #NJ03 and #OH01. That would add up to Biden 224, Trump 211 nationally - a 15 district net anti-Trump swing vs. 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner): #CA48 (Clinton) #IL14 (Trump) #IL17 (Trump) #MI11 (Trump) #NV03 (Trump) #NJ03 (Trump) #NY18 (Trump) #NY19 (Trump) #OH01 (Trump) #TX15 (Clinton) #TX28 (Clinton) I'd be open to anyone's math on these. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far: #AZ01 #GA06 #GA07 #MN02 #NE02 #NH01 #NJ05 #NJ11 #PA17 #TX24 #VA02 #VA07 And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far: #FL26 #TX23 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton. Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Philadelphia's newly counted provisionals today... Biden 3,318 (84%) Trump 596 (15%) Biden's statewide PA lead up to 68k and continuing to rise... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, by my math the overseas/military ballots in Morris, Union and Warren counties have broken 708 for Malinowski (D) to 150 for Kean (R), boosting Malinowski's #NJ07 lead to 4,961 votes. Now, instead of needing ~58% of the remaining ~25k ballots, Kean (R) needs ~60%. Tough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty incredible that #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), the former DC director of Human Rights Watch, might just get bailed out in his tight reelection race by overseas ballots (likely from NGO/globe-trotting types) breaking overwhelmingly his way. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcimaps: Can look at the shift in Florida via percent or raw vote So Biden lost Florida by 260,000 votes more than Clinton. 75% of th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To sum up: Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes in 2016, whereas Biden is on track to win it by 7 million+. But Biden won the Electoral College by a tighter raw vote margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, if you go by the closest raw margins that put Biden over the victory threshold - AZ, GA, WI and #NE02 - Biden's combined margin of victory is just 66,702 votes right now. In other words, Biden is winning the Electoral College by a closer raw vote margin than Trump '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and the presidency) by a combined 77,744 votes. Right now, Biden is ahead in those three states by three times that margin - 233,001 votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dem presidential vote margin surge '16-'20, by GA county: 1. Fulton +64,636 2. Gwinnett +56,250 3. DeKalb +49,869 4. Cobb +49,178 5. Henry +20,756 6. Clayton +14,088 7. Douglas +11,142 8. Rockdale +8,455 9. Chatham +8,415 GA's other 150 counties: -57,256 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another fun fact: Biden won more Florida counties in '20 than Clinton did in '16, even though he lost FL by more. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fun fact: Hillary Clinton actually won more Georgia counties in '16 than Joe Biden did in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Take Petersburg, VA, which is 79% Black and routinely votes over 85% Dem. Number of votes cast in... 2008: 15,540 2012: 15,908 2016: 13,786 2020: 14,118 ...even though its population has declined just ~3% the last decade & turnout skyrocketed nationwide in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be sure, metro Georgia stands out as a place where there was real Black turnout growth '16-'20, but the bigger numerical shift was suburban ATL whites defecting from Trump. And turnout was relatively flat '16-'20 in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Detroit, rural Black counties etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If anyone thought that Kamala Harris's addition to the ticket would boost the Black share of the electorate closer to '08/'12 levels after a major dip in '16...it's pretty clear now from the county-level data that didn't happen. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Philadelphia posts newly counted ballots (that I think are the first of the provisionals to be counted??)... Biden 3,728 (79%) Trump 927 (20%) Biden's statewide PA lead just surpassed 65k. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RyanDEnos @SantGRey Nowhere near final. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Newly counted overseas ballots in Morris Co. portion of #NJ07: Malinowski (D) 140 Kean (R) 17 Malinowski lead back up to 4,462 votes. These ballots could actually be pretty significant district-wide... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: One thing that's quite clear in the places where we're already up to A-minus level turnout data (most of FL, NV, a couple of… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You can also make the case that had the Trump campaign been as laser-focused on growing its voter registration in GA as it was in FL/NC/PA etc., we wouldn't be talking about Biden winning GA right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One bright spot for Dems in '22/'24: there is real potential upside vs. '20 if they're able to run full-scale door-to-door/campus voter registration campaigns. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, @NY22 is far from over. Although I might rather be Brindisi (D), it's going to be extremely close and is going to come down to remaining absentees from Oneida, Broome, Madison, Chenango and Herkimer plus provisionals. And we're not going to know for a while. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I do think this ended up mattering to the result. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This race has been a safe Dem hold since election night, but Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) just took the lead by 6,381 votes w/ more mail ballots counted in #NY03. https://t.co/giGiDO8S4p? — PolitiTweet.org