Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For those wondering why there were about 400 fewer ballots counted than the earlier 5,164 estimate of Chenango ballots... 1) a few hundred votes went to the Libertarian 2) a few left #NY22 race blank 3) a few affidavit ballots were rejected — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) needed to win the Chenango absentees by ~38% to overtake Tenney's lead and he won them by 36.2%. Looks like #NY22 could turn into another heartbreaker for House Dems, but given NY's stone age vote tabulation, who knows. Lawyers descending now... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals... Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%) Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%) Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Correction: I transcribed that wrong from my spreadsheet. My current modeling spits out 3,570 to 1,471, which would give Brindisi a net 2,099 votes and put him in the *lead* by 154 votes in #NY22 overall. But we'll see in a few hours... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on my current modeling of the Chenango Co. absentees (going off of precincts w/ similar party reg/abs returns), Brindisi would win them 3,568 to 1,607, which would give him a net 1,961 votes over Tenney. Tenney's current lead is 1,945, per my count. Wow. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Joe Biden will still be the president, despite attempts to subvert the will of the electorate. But it's not so hard to imagi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No joke: the size of Dems/Pelosi's House majority now depends on absentee ballots from tiny Norwich, NY (pop. 7,190) being counted right now. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The difference between 1,920 and 2,097 may seem trivial, but it's huge. If it's 1,920, Brindisi (D) only needs to win the 5,165 remaining Chenango ballots by 37%. But if it's 2,097, he needs a 41% margin. Based on neighboring counties, I think 37% is doable, 41% less so. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In true 2020 form, confusion reigns. NY's lack of uniform, real-time reporting system have led to differing accounts of the size of Claudia Tenney (R)'s current #NY22 lead. Here are three different estimates based on reporting from @JRosenblattTV, @jillianforstadt and me. https://t.co/kjbqmpg1N0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's a huge day in #NY22, as 5,164 Chenango ballots being counted *right now* hold the key to whether Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) hangs on and delivers Dems a crucial House seat. It's likely to come down to less than 300 votes either way, and I'm on the edge of my seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: Trump has no viable path to victory. Every single other candidate in modern history in his position has long since con… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ErikJMaassen @HacksOnTap That was me — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Mama_Sayyyyyyy @CookPolitical Biden won the county w/ all absentees counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. If you voted absentee in Rensselaer Co., NY, congrats: your ballot helped push the @CookPolitical national popular vote tracker past the 156 million threshold. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden has now doubled Hillary Clinton's 2016 popular vote margin of 2.86 million, and I'd estimate we've still got 2-3 million ballots left outstanding (mostly in NY & CA). https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa? https://t.co/VwzHEMZPgK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: the U.S. just surpassed a record-shattering *156 million* votes counted... Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%) Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%) Biden's popular vote lead is up to 5.9 million (3.8%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: More generally, this just isn't 2008's GA electorate. Democrats have a lot more strength at the top of the turnout spectrum,… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: CA just surpassed TX for the distinction of Trump's highest 2020 vote total, with 5.88 million (in 2016, it was third behind TX & FL). https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's some confusion among #NY22 sources about the size of Tenney (R)'s lead. My earlier count had it at 1,968, while @jillianforstadt says 1,847. That could make a meaningful difference: does Brindisi (D) need to win remaining Chenango by 38% or 36%? https://t.co/0UYAM381gn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One hope for Dems & Brindisi w/ the 5,164 ballots left to count: Chenango Co. is closer to Binghamton, where he's overperforming his '18 numbers, than it is to Utica/Rome, where he's underperforming. It's anyone's guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) *gained* ground in today's Somerset/Morris county updates, and his lead is back above 5,000 votes. Tom Kean (R) lacks a realistic path back, and House Dems breathe a huge sigh of relief. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I were to model Chenango Co.'s outstanding vote based on the results in other counties, Brindisi (D) would gain 3,387 votes to Tenney (R)'s 1,674, giving Tenney a ~255 vote win. But we'll find out tomorrow. It's just razor-close. #NY22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, #NY22 sources tell me there are 5,165 ballots left to count in Chenango Co. (incl. 280 provisionals) and 32 provisionals left in Oneida, and that's it. Bottom line: Brindisi (D) would need to win what's left by a margin of ~38% to win. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: I've been made aware of a newly counted batch of Madison Co. challenged ballots that broke 91-14 Brindisi, as well as a slight update to Broome Co.'s election day totals. My latest #NY22 tally: Tenney (R) 153,922 (+1,968) Brindisi (D) 151,954 It's a jump ball. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) w/ a solid 70%-30% split out of Oneida Co. today, now trails Claudia Tenney (R) by just 2,089 votes by my count. #NY22 will be decided by ~4800 Chenango Co. absentees tomorrow, and likely to be decided by <500 votes either way. Wow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Michigan's largest pro-Trump margin swings by county, '16-'20: 1. Montcalm 3.9% 2. Ogemaw 3.5% 3. Lake 3.3% 4. Schoolcraft 3.0% 5. Clare 3.0% 6. Gratiot 2.7% 7. Osceola 2.7% 8. Arenac 2.4% 9. Gladwin 2.0% 10. Mecosta 1.9% 11. Tuscola 1.8% 12. Hillsdale 1.3% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: as more Michigan counties have certified and reported to the Secretary of State, Biden's margin of victory (154,187) is now more than 14 times Trump's 2016 margin there (10,704 votes). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Michigan's largest anti-Trump margin swings by county, '16-'20: 1. Grand Traverse 9.5% 2. Kent 9.3% 3. Ottawa 9.1% 4. Leelanau 8.4% 5. Emmet 8.3% 6. Keweenaw 7.8% 7. Charlevoix 7.1% 8. Livingston 7.0% 9. Marquette 6.9% 10. Clinton 6.2% 11. Kalamazoo 6.0% 12. Oakland 6.0% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) has picked up 3 votes in the #IA02 recount, expanding her lead over Rita Hart (D) from 47 votes to 50. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thread from a South FL Dem who lost reelection amid huge Latino defections to Trump 👇 — PolitiTweet.org