Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Suffolk is the only one that has given me kind of an attitude so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to the wonderful Louise (D) and Courtney (R) at the Orange Co., NY Board of Elections who just shared unofficial absentee/affidavit results w/ me over the phone: Biden 22,391 (71%) Trump 8,671 (27%) Biden's national popular vote lead just rose to 6.23 million (4.0%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to the wonderful lady at the Westchester Co., NY Board of Elections who just shared partial absentee returns w/ me over the phone: Biden 42,859 (83%) Trump 8,480 (16%) Biden's national popular vote lead just rose to 6.22 million (4.0%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My job is to forecast what could be ahead in each state in 2021 & beyond, whether people like it or not. If you're getting tired of these, feel free to unfollow now - b/c there are a lot more maps on the way. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NilesGApol Here's the full map: five Black majority CVAP districts (#GA02, #GA04, #GA05, #GA06 and #GA13) and every other district is overwhelmingly GOP. https://t.co/ouA3NmafKS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After the past decade's growth, it's possible - even easy - to draw a 4th compact Black majority district in metro Atlanta, as shown below. It could also help Republicans turn every surrounding district into a Trump +30 seat, eliminating a Dem from the GA delegation. https://t.co/VIiQCG2brW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two things that have become increasingly apparent for a while: 1) Voters w/ low levels of social/institutional trust are both likelier to support Trump & less likely to answer polls 2) Dems now much likelier to be part of the work-from-home economy and available to answer polls — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are unconfirmed reports that Hart is on track to pick up 26 votes in Scott Co.'s recount, 9 votes in Jasper Co. and has picked up 1 vote in Clinton Co. so far. That would put Hart (D) ahead by *a single vote.* We won't know until at least Monday. Hey, every vote counts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: last night, Rita Hart (D) netted two votes over Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in Jefferson Co.'s recount. Here's where things stand in #IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) 196,880 Hart (D) 196,845 Still 3 counties (Scott, Jasper, Clinton) out of 24 that have yet to finalize recount. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not sure whether this is good news for Rita Hart (D) or Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), but 131 votes is a huge deal in a race currently on track for a *single digit* vote margin. #IA02 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In fact, I'm not aware of anywhere near this severe an underperformance for any other House *candidate* in the county, let alone an incumbent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pennsylvania has certified its 2020 election results: Biden 3,458,229 (50.0%) Trump 3,377,674 (48.8%) That's a 1.9 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 13.1% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHpCwA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest top-of-ticket underperformance by any House incumbent in the country? Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). Results in #MN05: Biden 328,764 (80%) Trump 72,323 (18%) Omar (D) 255,920 (64%) Johnson (R) 102,878 (26%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Minnesota has certified its 2020 election results: Biden 1,717,049 (52.4%) Trump 1,484,048 (45.3%) That's a 5.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and an 11.3% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@HuffmanForNC These are only Maine's military & overseas ballots, and most are from civilians living abroad, not active duty military. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sorry to disappoint all the Dems w/ military anti-Trump hot takes, but these ballots skew strongly towards civilians living abroad for whatever reason, not active duty military. They've been heavily Dem for years. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #CA25, one of just three remaining uncertain House races, Rep. Mike Garcia (R) is still ahead by 405 votes after the latest LA & Ventura updates. It's looking increasingly grim for Christy Smith (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To repeat: that would be a one vote margin out of 394k cast in #IA02. Suffice it to say, I have not seen enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per @IAStartingLine, Miller-Meeks (R) is ahead of Hart (D) by 37 votes in #IA02 with 20/24 counties done recounting. But there are unconfirmed reports Hart has also netted 26 votes in Scott Co., 9 in Jasper Co., and 1 in Clinton Co. That would add up to a *one vote race.* Wow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Texas has certified its 2020 election results: Trump 5,890,347 (52.1%) Biden 5,259,126 (46.5%) That's a 3.4 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 26.2% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

North Carolina has certified its 2020 election results: Trump 2,758,775 (49.9%) Biden 2,684,292 (48.6%) That's a 2.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 16.5% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Saratoga Co., NY just reported its absentee/affidavit results: Biden 18,773 (74%) Trump 6,055 (24%) The county flips blue after defecting to Trump in '16, and Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.18 million. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Mexico has certified its 2020 election results: Biden 501,614 (54.3%) Trump 401,894 (43.5%) That's a 2.6 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 15.7% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Five votes doesn't sound like much, but it could mean the difference in #IA02. Still a few big counties left to report. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Top '16-'20 anti-Trump margin swings so far: 1. Vermont -9.0 points 2. Nebraska's 2nd CD -8.9 3. Colorado -8.6 4. Maine's 1st CD -8.3 5. Delaware -7.6 6. New Hampshire -7.0 7. Maryland -6.7 8. Connecticut -6.4 9. Massachusetts -6.3 10. Maine -6.1 https://t.co/muUDuQ2KmW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Top increases in raw votes cast vs. 2016 so far: 1. Hawaii +33.9% 2. Arizona +31.6% 3. Utah +31.5% 4. Texas +26.2% 5. Idaho +25.6% 6. Nevada +24.9% 7. California +22.5% 8. Georgia +22.1% 9. Tennessee +21.6% 10. Montana +21.4% 11. Washington +21.3% 12. South Carolina +19.5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The pro-Trump gap between the national popular vote (Biden +3.9) and the tipping point state (Wisconsin, Biden +0.6) is now half a point wider than it was in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maine's 2nd CD certified results: Trump 196,692 (52.3%) Biden 168,696 (44.8%) That's a 2.8 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 6.5% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maine's 1st CD certified results: Biden 266,376 (60.1%) Trump 164,045 (37.0%) That's a 8.3 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 12.4% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maine has certified its 2020 election results: Biden 435,072 (53.1%) Trump 360,737 (44.0%) That's a 6.1 point margin swing against Trump vs. 2016 and a 9.6% increase in votes cast. https://t.co/9dMmSHHdVa — PolitiTweet.org