Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great irony is that some of today's biggest political "machines" aren't urban or run by Dems. In the case of Lakewood, an 11-member Orthodox Jewish governing council - the Vaad - pretty much dictates the votes of a 100k+ town in the pines of Ocean Co., NJ. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lakewood Township, NJ (pop. 106,300): 2016 Pres.: Trump 74%, Clinton 24% 2017 Gov.: Murphy (D) 50%, Guadagno (R) 49% 2020 Pres.: Trump 82%, Biden 16% What's even more insane: Biden earned more raw votes at 16% than Murphy earned at 50%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Presidential results in Bedminster Township, NJ: 2016: Trump 48.2%, Clinton 48.0% 2020: Biden 52.6%, Trump 45.9% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Presidential election results in my hometown of Montgomery, NJ... 2004: Kerry 49%, Bush 50% 2020: Biden 68%, Trump 30% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few snapshots of Trump growth w/ AAPI voters... Daly City, CA (56% Asian) 2016: Clinton 78%-15% 2020: Biden 76%-21% Palisades Park, NJ (58% Asian) 2016: Clinton 65%-33% 2020: Biden 60%-39% Westminster, CA (48% Asian) 2016: Clinton 53%, Trump 38% 2020: Biden 44%, Trump 53% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Colorado has a higher % of college-educated whites than any state except Massachusetts and Vermont, is what happened. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

[Not an endorsement of this op-ed but] there's pretty strong evidence in places like Orange Co., SF, Hawaii et. al. that Trump won a higher share of the AAPI vote than he did in '16. https://t.co/1l11BViRmt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Los Angeles: in 2012, the entire county had enough people for 14 House seats. In 2022, it's projected to have enough for only 13.2. But this may not be *that* hard to solve: there are currently four incumbents from LA County age 79+. Who will retire? https://t.co/xjK1UF2HeF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections IL-13: Clinton +11 IL-14: Clinton +5 IL-17: Clinton +1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This scheme could accomplish multiple possible IL Dem machine goals at once: 1) Revenge against Newman for ousting Lipinski in #IL03 2) Preserve 3 Black seats & add a 2nd Latino seat 3) Flip the delegation from 13D-5R to 14D-3R (and, shore up Lauren Underwood & Cheri Bustos) https://t.co/I67E6AUV4r — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big question in Chicago: will IL Dem legislators create a new Latino plurality district on the Northwest Side? In this example, they'd essentially eliminate new Rep. Marie Newman (D) by relocating #IL03 north. Rep. Chuy Garcia (D)'s #IL04 would still be 60%+ Latino. https://t.co/GsBdg04Zxm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I'm surprised by any aspect of Biden's early picks, it's that he's tapped three House Ds (reducing Pelosi's margin for error to basically zero) but hasn't yet drawn from the pool of talented Ds who lost their House seats and will soon be out of work. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SeanTrende What's your Trump '16 margin for that TX-15? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SeanTrende Doesn't TX-34 fit that description in this map? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden/R districts (9): #CA21 Valadao #CA25 Garcia #CA39 Kim #CA48 Steel #FL27 Salazar #NE02 Bacon #NY24 Katko #PA01 Fitzpatrick #TX24 Van Duyne Trump/D districts (7/8?): #IL17 Bustos #IA03 Axne #ME02 Golden #MI08 Slotkin #NJ03 Kim #NY22 Brindisi (?) #PA08 Cartwright #WI03 Kind — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden/R districts (8): #CA21 Valadao #CA25 Garcia #CA39 Kim #CA48 Steel #FL27 Salazar #NE02 Bacon #NY24 Katko #PA01 Fitzpatrick Trump/D districts (7/8?): #IL17 Bustos #IA03 Axne #ME02 Golden #MI08 Slotkin #NJ03 Kim #NY22 Brindisi (?) #PA08 Cartwright #WI03 Kind — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low. For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An important point that kinda got lost in the post-election craziness: the likelihood the Census won't have apportionment counts ready until at least Jan. 26 negates any opportunity for the Trump admin to alter data (remove undocumented residents, etc.) https://t.co/RmxB8Hixfg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty amazing Republicans won all four of these CA districts w/ 51% of the vote or less, despite Biden winning three of the four by double digit margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @KyleTrygstad: Republicans won 4 House races in California in congressional districts carried at the presidential level by Joe Biden, ac… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under these hypothetical lines, Trump would've carried 26/39 seats by ~15%+ in '20 despite winning TX by just 5.6%. Dems' only recourse might be a VRA claim in federal court, but Rs would point to the addition of a new Hispanic majority seat to counter those claims. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally, on the border: Rs would target Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) by converting #TX15 (narrow Biden win) into a double-digit Trump seat. Rs would also shore up new Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) by making #TX23 a double-digit Trump seat - all while keeping both seats 60%+ Hispanic. https://t.co/sCD38PLrpM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade. https://t.co/xj0ymXL7zw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39. https://t.co/bi3cmWV10l — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how... https://t.co/4I2nhANKd1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In hindsight, Trump probably could have lost by ~6 million votes nationally and still prevailed in the Electoral College. https://t.co/IR6Ovxhwdu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.9 million and came within 77,744 votes of winning the presidency. In 2020, Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 7.1 million and came within 65,009 votes of winning reelection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: Post-election there was this talk that Trump only really gained with Hispanics in S. FL and S. TX. Now, we know he mad… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: One of the strangest parts about the Texas suit is that it originates in Texas. If there's any state GOP that ought to intui… — PolitiTweet.org