Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Oconee Co. (outside Athens) looks fully reported: Perdue +37.0 Loeffler +35.6 Trump (Nov.) +33.5 Perdue (Nov.) +38.3 Plenty of Biden/Perdue voters here in Nov., and Perdue couldn't match his Nov. margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What we saw in 2018: plenty of Trump voters just won't turn out without Trump on the ballot. Are we seeing history repeat itself tonight? So far, yes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Turns out it's a lot faster to count/report votes when you can count the number of races on the ballot on one hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest unknown and possible source of GOP comeback: what does final Dem turnout look like in the more transient, outer suburban ATL ring (Gwinnett, Cobb, Henry, etc.)? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line so far: I think Republicans have a turnout problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Washington Co. (rural central GA, racially polarized) looks fully reported: Warnock +3.0 Ossoff +2.4 Biden (November) +0.7 And turnout is at 90.6% of November levels. These are great numbers for both Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are now 19 really red, rural GA counties that look fully reported, and turnout is only at 82-90% of November levels in all of them. That's *probably* not enough to cut it for Rs, but still a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, a Dem sweep is the single likeliest outcome, but a Warnock/Perdue split (while still unlikely) is a bit likelier than I would've guessed before polls closed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, we've got a decent cohort of rural, extremely Republican counties that are below 90% of November turnout levels. That's got to worry Rs, b/c we know at least DeKalb - the biggest Dem vote trove in the state - is going to be *above* 90% of its November turnout level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another possible GOP turnout problem: in Wayne Co. (rural SE GA), Perdue/Loeffler are running slightly behind Trump % margins (Perdue +55.6, Loeffler +56.0, Trump +57.2), and turnout is only at 88% of November levels. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Franklin Co. looks to be first deep red North GA county to fully report: Perdue +70.8 Loeffler +70.8 Trump (Nov.) +69.4 But the bad news for Rs: runoff turnout is only at 86.1% of November levels. That might not cut it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point, I'd rather be the Dems, esp. Warnock. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pulaski Co. (rural south GA) looks done: Perdue 2,546-1,105 (+39.4) Loeffler 2,524-1,126 (+38.4) Trump (Nov.) 2,815-1,230 (+38.9) Perdue/Loeffler running about even with Trump here, but turnout is just 90.3% of November levels. Dems could plausibly beat that in ATL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lanier Co. (rural south GA) looks done: Perdue 2,122-902 (+40.4) Loeffler 2,121-907 (+40.0) Trump (Nov.) 2,509-1,019 (+41.7) And that's only 86% of November turnout, so if that's fully counted, that's great news for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not currently accepting new followers (j/k). https://t.co/1soQkG0EAo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, NYT is reporting 98% of estimated vote counted in Madison Co. (76% Trump) w/ only about 6k votes counted, but there were 15k votes counted there in November so I think there's a lot more to come there. Not sure if that's affecting the needle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far - and not a huge surprise - Perdue is running slightly ahead of Loeffler in Atlanta & burbs (Fulton, Gwinnett). It's not likely to be more than a point overall, but in a race this close, it could ultimately be meaningful. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, our first maybe-complete county (Webster, rural narrow Trump) is at 90.3% of November turnout. That sounds impressive, but could easily be surpassed elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We have what might be our first near-complete county, and it's Webster in rural SW GA: Perdue 700-553 Loeffler 704-551 November: Trump 748-639 If Webster's near done, it's not great for the Dems...still early... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First precinct is from Burke Co. (rural outside of Augusta): Warnock 534-189 Ossoff 536-187 Doesn't tell us much b/c it's tiny share of county's vote, but tells us...don't expect much divergence between these two races. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And the final polls of the 2020 election cycle have closed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For GOPers, the early "oh sh**" equivalent would be turnout levels less than 85% of November in red/rural counties, akin to the Alabama '17 special situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For Dems, my guess is it would be a big Nov-Jan surge for Perdue/Loeffler in Cobb/Gwinnett/Henry, where the longest-term residents (most reliable voters) skew whiter/more GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That would put DeKalb Co. (83% Biden) at 90.01% of November levels with an hour until the polls close. Republicans have to hope turnout is comparably high in their best areas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, anyone got a >6pm DeKalb scrape? @Nate_Cohn @KevinQ https://t.co/N40pA2IH7J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my math, that would put easily put turnout in DeKalb at >90% of November levels by poll closing. Might be a good yardstick to measure heavily R counties against once we start getting some completed counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Takeaways: for Ossoff to win, he has to get much closer to Biden's numbers in the outer ATL suburbs, where he ran behind Biden. For Warnock to win, he's got to count on some Collins voters in North GA not voting for Loeffler this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The top 10 GA counties w/ 10k+ voters where Dems underperformed Biden by the most in November's Loeffler special: 1. Hart -2.1% 2. Oconee -2.1% 3. Stephens -1.9% 4. Forsyth -1.7% 5. Greene -1.7% 6. Glynn -1.6% 7. Thomas -1.6% 8. Columbia -1.6% 9. Fulton -1.5% 10. Catoosa -1.5% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The top 10 GA counties w/ 10k+ voters where Ossoff underperformed Biden's % by the most in November: 1. Oconee -2.6% 2. Greene -2.5% 3. Fulton -2.3% 4. Cobb -1.9% 5. Clarke -1.8% 6. Forsyth -1.7% 7. Thomas -1.7% 8. Tift -1.6% 9. Fayette -1.5% 10. Cherokee 1.4% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, this is why the data on heavy EDay turnout in DeKalb doesn't really indicate anything either way. Sure, heavy EDay turnout in a blue county, but especially high in R-friendly precincts. — PolitiTweet.org