Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Warnock's victory is pretty clearly going to wind up outside of Georgia's 0.5% recount threshold. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The problems for Perdue are 1) Biden won by 0.24, so Perdue has to overperform Trump on balance to begin with 2) Ossoff's overperformances are more a bit larger and broader than Perdue's. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are the pro-Perdue margin swings vs. Trump '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only): 1. Oconee +4.5 2. Greene +3.5 3. Fayette +2.2 4. Glynn +1.8 5. Cherokee +1.8 6. Hall +1.8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of the coverage of GA's Senate races has focused on the wealthier northern ATL suburbs, but if both Dems win tonight, they'll have the much more African-American southern ATL suburbs to thank. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're getting down to bits and pieces, but I'd still rather be Ossoff than Perdue. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: with latest DeKalb & Bartow updates, Perdue's lead over Ossoff cut to ~20k. There's still quite a bit of DeKalb left to go, and it ought to be enough to inch Ossoff ahead. Stay tuned... #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only): 1. Clayton +6.1 2. Liberty +5.0 3. Rockdale +4.2 4. Douglas +3.9 5. Baldwin +2.7 6. Paulding +2.1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise). But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, there's no reason to believe DeKalb's heavily Black precincts will be behaving much differently from Clayton's once all votes are tallied. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: DeKalb County (and all Georgia counties) posted the exact number of in-person early votes long before election day. They eve… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tempting to put it this way: Perdue/Loeffler embrace of Trump in the runoff phase of #GASEN may have alienated suburban Biden/R (Nov.) ticket-splitters, and it's not clear it did as much to drive up turnout in deep red rural GA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Clayton Co. (suburban ATL, 69% Black) is at 89.7% of its November turnout: Warnock +77.0 Ossoff +76.8 Biden (Nov.) +70.9 Republicans just aren't getting a comparable overperformance vs. '20 prez anywhere. That's the story. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's even a pocket of pro-Dem votes left in Newton Co. (suburban ATL) that might not be factored into others' models b/c some sites are prematurely counting it as fully reported. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So right now, Perdue is leading by ~115k votes. But, he's got only a few small pockets of votes out: Bartow, Columbia, Dodge, Forsyth, etc. Meanwhile, Ossoff has a lot of great turf left: DeKalb, Cobb, Chatham, Henry...a little Fulton/Gwinnett...but mostly DeKalb. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fair enough! The label is accurate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although a lot of TV chatter right now is focused on the big prizes (DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, etc.), a lot of it is overlooking what tipped the Warnock/Loeffler race in favor of a call, in my view: Rockdale Co. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Stay tuned for more on the other #GASEN race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

About an hour ago, Republicans badly needed a Dem letdown in the outer suburban ATL ring. But, there's no sign of that happening; as more votes have come in the pattern of GOP underperformance has looked even more consistent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats are the favorites in the Ossoff/Perdue race as well, which means they're currently favored for Senate control. Still a ways to go there. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough. Raphael Warnock (D) defeats Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) in GA's special Senate runoff. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Loeffler may have just retaken the lead in the count, but she's behind in the race considering what's left. #GASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's the story right now: 1. Black turnout looks, frankly, phenomenal. 2. Perdue/Loeffler are approaching Trump %s of the vote in a lot of deep red rural counties, but turnout there isn't anything special. 3. It's getting harder to see a path for either R, but esp. Loeffler. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Baldwin Co. (Milledgeville, GA) is at 91.7% of its November turnout: Warnock +4.0 Ossoff +3.6 Biden (Nov.) +1.3 Another great performance for Dems in a mid-sized, racially polarized county. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rockdale Co. (SE Atlanta suburbs) is at 90.7% of November turnout: Warnock +45.2 Ossoff +44.8 Biden (Nov.) +40.0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tiny, rural Randolph Co., GA (59% Black) is at *97%* of its November turnout. It's going for Warnock by 13.2 pts and Ossoff by 12.8 after going for Biden by 9.2 pts in November. This is a clear pattern now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, Macon Co. is 61% Black. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The first heavily Dem rural county, Macon Co., is fully reporting: Ossoff: +25.0 Warnock: +25.6 Biden (Nov.): +21.3 And turnout is at 91.8% of November levels. Possibly the single best piece of data for the Dems yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rabun Co. (NE corner of GA) looks fully reported: Perdue 6,618-1,787 Loeffler 6,566-1,833 Trump (Nov.) 7,474-1,984 Familiar story: turnout at only 88.9% of Nov. levels, and Rs running a bit behind vote %s they need. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It turns out when your coalition depends so much on one person (Donald Trump) driving turnout, there are some big downside risks when that person isn't on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org