Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject I'll 100% hide replies of people jumping on others' threads just to promote their own subpar products — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject It's a nice app, but it's actually way behind. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Really exciting news on the redistricting front coming tomorrow - a breakthrough that will democratize mapping technology. Stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RRHElections You mean like this? https://t.co/jVsaREepqm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I view this latter option as less likely, though. At the warp speed metro ATL is moving towards Dems, a 10R-4D map could erode quickly & possibly even backfire on Rs. What's more, it could be vulnerable to a racial gerrymandering lawsuit for overly packing Black voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map. In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden. https://t.co/8Nkf2gsb8e — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020. Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide. The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right). https://t.co/ulpawqevqf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Obama’s 2008 win is bigger outlier than Biden’s. He was only non-incumbent candidate since Reagan 1980 to have House coatta… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: This seems important. "Defund the police" may really have hurt Democrats' standing with nonwhite voters. https://t.co/k… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@don_polaski RELJ 121 Old Testament. You were terrific!! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@don_polaski Most of Bilirakis's current district is Pasco Co. and he could easily run there. Also, weren't you my religious studies professor at UVA back in fall '02? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition to aiding #FL27 Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R), Rs could also shore up #FL26 Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R) by giving him parts of Collier Co. on the Gulf Coast. But that would require #FL25 Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) to agree to give away R voters from his Trump +23 seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another caveat: Rs are somewhat constrained in the Miami area by the need to shore up their two '20 pickups in Hispanic districts, #FL26 and #FL27. It's likely Rs will axe Miami Beach/Brickell from #FL27 (left) to convert it from a Biden +3 seat into a Trump seat (right). https://t.co/f5pkJPLBfO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans are less likely to target Lawson than the other two, because breaking up Tallahassee/Jacksonville could trigger a racial gerrymandering lawsuit. Full analysis at @CookPolitical: https://t.co/t2DMA99Evu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the example above, Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D) #FL07, Charlie Crist (D) #FL13 and Al Lawson (D) #FL05 would all end up in double-digit Trump districts - which might help explain why Murphy & Crist are threatening statewide bids. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because the FL Sup Ct has turned sharply right since 2015, Rs could be even more aggressive - in defiance of FL's Fair Districts amendments. At the extreme end, Rs could attempt a 21R-8D gerrymander (below), which could cost Dems almost their entire House majority. https://t.co/uxl8hiliJo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FLORIDA: if you thought things couldn't get worse for Dems...it can. FL could be the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2021. FL is poised to gain two seats. At a minimum, Rs could easily add two new safe R seats (right) to the current 16R-11D map (left). But... https://t.co/wzA1AM4nwx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AlexIp718 B/c it’s wild and wonderful — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also notable: pro-Dem shift in suburbs that are rapidly diversifying, such as Brazoria Co. outside Houston and Ellis Co. south of Dallas (where, incidentally, a special election will soon be held in #TX06). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MZanona: Awkward moment at the House GOP presser just now, when leaders were asked whether Trump should speak at CPAC. McCarthy immed… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Apparently what you name your PAC when you’re certified the winner 196,964 to 196,958... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

CONNECTICUT: I'm gonna be honest...not all that much exciting going on here. Dems haven't lost a House race there since 2006, and unless courts order more compact lines for #CT05 (which they didn't do in '11), that isn't likely to change. https://t.co/XDPPmfpKjd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, in this scenario, the Weld Co. home of current #CO04 Freedom Caucus Rep. Ken Buck (R) would be in a Biden district (#CO08) and he would probably need to run in a district where he doesn't live to stay in Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another big question: how will new Rep. Lauren Boebert (R)'s #CO03 change? If the commission wanted to make it less R and more competitive, it could add the hardscrabble small towns (j/k) of Vail & Breckenridge. But, it's also possible #CO03 could lose swingy Pueblo in that case. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The other option might be to anchor a swingy new #CO08 in the southern Denver exurbs, anchored by Douglas Co. This version (below) also would have voted for Trump '16 and Biden '20 - something of a "fair fight." https://t.co/1FpudOrt6o — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The real question: where will the commission draw the new district? Well, I see two options to create a competitive #CO08. The first would unite Fort Collins and Greeley in a swingy, compact new Northern Colorado seat, which would've voted Trump '16 and Biden '20 (below). https://t.co/VNH5It8TMr — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

COLORADO: is not only gaining an 8th seat, but has a new 12-member citizens' redistricting commission required to consider competitiveness. But unlike some other states, there's not some huge gerrymander to unravel. The current map below (4D, 3R) approximates the state's lean. https://t.co/D5yC0WDjfq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Next up in 30 mins: "Methodology & building a better data-informed public." What should I ask? #IOPCookPolling — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: The key to make sure you are getting accurate polling from Latino voters says @AmandiOnAir , you still must do live phone c… — PolitiTweet.org