Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Kansas Rs face some obstacles to doing so: 1) They'd have to override Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s veto. That might not be easy given they can't afford many defections and in 2011, when Rs controlled it all, they couldn't even agree on a map and it went to federal court — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

KANSAS: Republicans hold a 3-1 lead in the delegation, but there's serious talk they could draw a 4-0 gerrymander by converting Rep. Sharice Davids (D)'s #KS03 from a double-digit Biden district (left) to a double-district Trump district (right). https://t.co/MyCXUQ8HFY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Metro ATL's share of GA's total vote, '92-'20: 52%-59% Northern VA's share of VA's total vote '92-'20: 30%-36% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Except it is... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Georgia is roughly where Virginia was a decade ago: Republicans still control state government and may be able to redistrict the state to their liking one last time...but long-term/demographically, the writing is kinda on the wall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If past is prologue, Georgia Republicans just handed Democrats their best turnout tool for 2022 & beyond. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition, Republicans might not be so keen on creating one Biden +6 seat in the middle of the state, so they could conceivably reject such a proposal and draw a map that preserves four Trump districts instead. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One possibility: the state panel could propose one compact central Iowa district (Des Moines/Ames) that would have voted for Biden, surrounded by three Trump districts. But until we have exact census numbers, IA's remap prospects are difficult to game out. https://t.co/olrUoHuHei — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Cindy Axne (D)'s #IA03 is the only D seat left in the state, and it's also IA's fastest-growing. It'll need to shed ~60k people. In 2020, she won by 1.4% while losing every county except Polk (Des Moines). So, a more Des Moines-centric district would be good news for her. https://t.co/roMSfjJgns — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IOWA: is often held up as the "gold standard" for apolitical redistricting. Every 10 years, it tasks nonpartisan state bureaucrats w/ drafting maps, and counties are kept whole. But, maps are still subject to legislature/governor approval, and this round Rs control both. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Regardless of how Republicans draw NW Indiana, it's a safe bet they'll safeguard freshman Rep. Victoria Spartz (R) by purging northern Marion Co. (Indianapolis) from #IN05, making the district prohibitively red. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Mrvan might be one of the most anonymous D freshmen in the House. But while Ds are gaining strength in suburban Indianapolis, they're losing ground in NW Indiana - a danger for Ds. It's now possible to draw a Lake Co. (Gary/Hammond) based district that voted for Trump overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

INDIANA: Republicans have held a 7-2 lead in the delegation since '12. But, it could get even worse for Dems if Rs gerrymander freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan (D)'s #IN01 from a Biden +9 seat (left) into a Trump +4 seat (right). https://t.co/8osRS5FPsO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: Gov. Brian Kemp has signed SB 202, a massive voting and election-administration related omnibus bill that expands early… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are too many podcasts but if you're an election junkie, Zac's is worth subscribing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, after redistricting, #FL27 could shed Miami Beach and become a Trump seat, making her prospects even worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In fact, the likeliest path to Republicans picking up all three of TX's new seats? Draw new seats in DFW burbs (R), Houston burbs (R) and downtown Austin (D), but redraw an existing Rio Grande Valley seat (#TX15 or #TX34) to flip it from D to R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is the obvious play for Rs: without drawing a new 80% Dem Austin "vote sink," the districts of Reps. Mike McCaul #TX10, Chip Roy #TX21, Roger Williams #TX25 and John Carter #TX31 would all be at serious risk of falling to Dems in the next decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imo, far more likely TX Republicans will draw a new, overwhelmingly blue Austin district (to make surrounding R seats much safer) than try to eliminate Doggett. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Increasingly difficult to argue #IA02 is a productive use of House Dems' time/energy/focus — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If he makes you an omelet next, I’ll have seen un oeuf #FrenchFryRomance — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Alabama loses a seat in redistricting, Rep. Mo Brooks (R)'s Senate run *might* help resolve Rs' musical chairs dilemma by allowing them to chop up his current #AL05 (left), protecting all six other incumbents. But, that would likely require splitting Huntsville (right). https://t.co/48GbprmmN1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans were already likely to try to redraw at least one South TX Hispanic majority seat to be much more winnable for an R. #TX34 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are plenty more House Ds who agree. Despite the hype, overturning #IA02 - which would pretty much require a party line vote of the whole House - ain't gonna happen. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If NY Dems override the commission and redraw the map for 2022, pretty good bet #NY23 gets eliminated or combined w/ #NY27 Rep. Chris Jacobs (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JonCampbellGAN: NEW: Rep. Tom Reed, R-Corning, confirms he will not run for reelection next year. Reed has released an extended statem… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And tbh, of the two Dems who fell short by infinitesimal margins in certified House race results (Rita Hart in #IA02 and Anthony Brindisi in #NY22), only Brindisi is behaving like someone who wants to win an election in the future. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW I haven't talked to a House D who thinks there's the slightest chance the House will vote to overturn the certified results in #IA02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If there was a surprise, it was how close Karen Carter Peterson (D) came to missing a #LA02 runoff slot to activist Gary Chambers (D). But, she lives to fight on to 4/24. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprises in Louisiana: in safe R #LA05, Julia Letlow (R) wins special election to fill vacancy created by death of her husband, Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R). In safe D #LA02, Troy Carter (D) and Karen Carter Peterson (D) advance to 4/24 runoff. — PolitiTweet.org