Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Regardless, Dems would need a court to endorse/order a second Black majority district, b/c the best Gov. Edwards (D) can do is to force a stalemate w/ the heavily R legislature. Bottom line: this isn't going to be decided soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alternatively, Dems could argue for a second Black majority district that connects Baton Rouge to Shreveport (#LA04, left). This was the case in a much uglier form in the 1990s: believe it or not, the map on the right (the "Z") was actually in effect for several years. https://t.co/ju0ONUEhCT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, drawing a second Black majority district would likely also mean a dramatic reconfiguration of #LA05, where Julia Letlow (R) was just elected and enjoys plenty of bipartisan goodwill. This is where the politics could get complicated for Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) & others. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Louisiana's population is 33% Black, and it's now possible to draw *two* fairly compact Black majority seats: #LA02 based in NOLA & another connecting Baton Rouge w/ Lafayette, Alexandria or even Monroe (#LA05 below). Expect Dems to fight/sue for this additional seat. https://t.co/W3WK1bPuBz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

LOUISIANA: in 2012, Rs packed Black voters in NOLA & Baton Rouge into one snakelike seat (#LA02 below), and dominate the other five. Dems view it as a blatant gerrymander, and now that they have the governorship, they'll have a seat at the redistricting table. https://t.co/TiTqmIWd32 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although FL, GA, NC and TX are commonly cited as Republicans' biggest opportunities to win back the House through gerrymandering, a lot also depends on how aggressive a map they draw (or can get past courts) in smaller states like IN, KS, KY, MO and TN. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the hypothetical GOP gerrymander below, Trump would have carried all six districts by 20%+ in 2016 and 15%+ in 2020, rendering them plainly unwinnable for Ds in 2022. https://t.co/LmB9qbQbvh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

KENTUCKY: Republicans have held a comfortable 5-1 edge in the delegation since '12. But now armed w/ legislative supermajorities, the question is whether they'll try for a shutout by cracking Louisville and eliminating #KY03 Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in redistricting. https://t.co/BjZDgeEJYn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @mattyglesias Perhaps in some states you might not expect. For example, it’s tough to draw two Black majority districts in Detroit and then protect all four suburban Ds in one MI map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A caveat: the nonwhite threshold at which a minority candidate of choice is viable still varies a lot from state to state. So, whereas a 45% Black district would certainly be sufficient in VA or NC, it might not be in AL or MS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Important point from @mattyglesias: as the urban/suburban South has trended D, you no longer need hyper-packed minority districts to elect minority candidates of choice. Today, the prevailing view among Ds of all races is to unpack. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: Democratic losses in the Senate aren't a fait accompli. A lot depends on how things go over the course of the next 18 month… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The new Georgia law increases the risk of partisan interference in election administration, even if it doesn't make it easy.… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Southern GOP Govs boasted about ‘stealing’ corporate jobs from high-tax/high regulation states. But, they are coming to rea… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Colorado off to a rocky start... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A terrific resource: while we all wait for complete 2020 census data, @davesredist's inclusion of 2019 population estimates allows users to game out redistricting scenarios using much more recent data than 2010. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NM01, it's state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) facing off against state Sen. Mark Moores (R) in the 6/1 special election. But keep in mind: when @CookPolitical releases its new PVI this week, #NM01 will have a PVI of D+9. No House R represents a seat w/ a PVI greater than D+5. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just your daily reminder that if any state is an election administration nightmare (failure to process thousands of valid registrations, inadequate early voting options, thousands of votes reported four months late), it's *New York.* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New York just amended its certified 2020 results (h/t @greggiroux): Biden +13,901 Trump +7,199 Biden's national popular vote margin grows to 7.059 million. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Changes to state laws that would make it easier for partisan actors to invalidate election results are a greater existen… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jonathanvswan: When @SpeakerBoehner was recording his audiobook I was told by sources that during these wine-soaked sessions he would d… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In light of Sen. Joe Manchin's decision to switch parties, I've decided to quit covering election nights to devote more time to bluegrass fiddling. Country roads, take me home. https://t.co/XIR1h8c5wi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @databyler: California's population growth has ground to a screeching halt. Here's why -- housing prices drive people out -- birth rate… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The idea that House Ds were going to vote to reverse the certified result in #IA02 was always overhyped. Time to focus on things that actually affect control in '22, like redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Rita Hart (D) withdraws contest before the House Administration Committee. #IA02 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ktbenner: NEW: DOJ is investigating Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-FL) for trafficking, related to his conduct with a 17-yr-old girl. The in… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NickBaumann: Democrats face an agonizing choice between sticking to their declared principles and having a better chance of maintaining… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: Gov. Laura Kelly (D)'s reelection prospects are highly uncertain, but her being there now may help save Rep. Sharice Davids (D), whose #KS03 could end up getting a few points *more* Dem (below). https://t.co/K9AyYZDLoi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

3) A 4-0 scheme like the one below might also be opposed by #KS02 Rep. Jake LaTurner (R), who grew up in the state's southeast corner and would want to keep those counties in his district, not #KS03 https://t.co/4YOvCOXo47 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2) To make #KS03 bright red, Rs would have to split up Wyandotte & Johnson counties. That could mean putting urban Wyandotte (Kansas City) in the rural "Big First" #KS01, an idea that's met huge resistance from KS civic leaders in the past — PolitiTweet.org