Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But, per @CookPolitical's new PVI, 230/435 districts still lean at least slightly more Republican than the nation. The reason: Dem voters are still a bit more geographically clustered than GOP voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democrat since Barack Obama in 2008 to carry a majority of congressional districts (224/435). There were 17 districts that flipped Trump -> Biden, and only two that flipped Cinton -> Trump. https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts https://t.co/IXmJrNu1kP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although these district boundaries won't be in effect for 2022's midterms, this dataset will serve as a useful baseline to compare old and new districts' partisan leanings once new lines are finalized next year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Subscribers to @CookPolitical get exclusive access to a fully sortable, downloadable table of new PVI values, along w/ raw presidential vote totals by district calculated especially for this report by @uselectionatlas. https://t.co/KJTs8TUadl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Check out @CookPolitical's brand new PVI report by yours truly and @alflinn on the latest trends, featuring a hover map w/ post-2020 PVI values for all 435 congressional districts. https://t.co/jq47rLcN8j — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's here (please clap). https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jimmcbride13 Yes...and neither of those things really matter if you can't afford ads — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Coming tomorrow: the 2021 @CookPolitical Partisan Voter Index (PVI). Get excited. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@TMSoutherland85 Let's see the fundraising reports... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Chris_Bast @JosephSzymanski How about fundraising? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JosephSzymanski Did you watch the same debate I did last week? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, 42% isn't surprising or spectacular for a universally known, immediate past gov running against an unknown (or in Fairfax's case, unelectable) Dem field. There's still time for Carroll Foy to make it a race vs. McAuliffe...the others not so much. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you're not a fan of whataboutism, you might want to avoid gerrymandering Twitter for the next few years. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big challenge w/ addressing gerrymandering in a bill such as HR1 is that partisan metrics-based standards for what's "fair" are nearly all unworkable on a nationwide scale. Reforms that *have* fared well? Ones that prohibit map-drawers from considering partisanship altogether. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few problems w/ the kind of anti-gerrymandering proportionality standard @mattyglesias suggests: 1) Ohio Rs, for example, could still draw a 13R-2D map where the median CD ~= state's partisan mean 2) Not really possible to draw an R seat in, say, MA. https://t.co/f1j1foCZaf https://t.co/WqJR9glvqP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps we should stop calling these kinds of sums "eye-popping" when it's pretty obvious the easiest shortcut to raising $$ is to be/become a lightning rod. https://t.co/NyaS2H8vBp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I don’t get the sense VA Dems are psyched about nominating a retread white guy for governor for the 7th time in a row. But Terry McAuliffe is pretty lucky: his most formidable 6/8 opponent, Jennifer Carroll Foy, is poised to split a lot of votes atm w/ the weaker Jenn McClellan. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And FWIW, here's the current 7D-1R congressional map shaded by partisan lean: https://t.co/NkKymgYxbX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here are the same maps shaded by partisan lean. No voters moved, only the lines (drawn w/ @davesredist): https://t.co/UDmc7oTr73 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How much can gerrymandering swing elections? In the hypothetical Maryland map on the left, 4/8 districts would've voted for Trump by 5%+ in '20. In the one on the right, 8/8 would've voted for Biden by 15%+. Not kidding. https://t.co/rjEqMSwdt5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.S. I'm going to venture that any hesitation MD Dems have about ignoring Hogan's advisory commission and passing an 8-0 gerrymander is likely to be eased by Harris's Freedom Caucus membership & objections to electors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And who's the current D frontrunner vs. Harris (R) in the about-to-be-radically redrawn #MD01? Fmr. state Del. Heather Mizeur, who represented Takoma Park in the state house (nowhere near the Eastern Shore) but moved to Kent Co. several years ago to start an organic herb farm. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remarkably, as the above hypothetical shows, Dems could simultaneously make MD Rs extinct at the federal level *and* draw a much cleaner map than the current one. And, they only need 3/5 support in the legislature to override Gov. Larry Hogan (R)'s veto. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the example below, Harris's #MD01 would go from Trump +20 to Biden +15 (a 35 point swing!), by losing heavily R parts of Cecil/Harford/Carroll counties and picking up Annapolis, Columbia and Laurel. All seven other districts are still Biden +20 or more. https://t.co/pq4vwmDd8C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. But this time, they're poised go even further, by taking a sledgehammer to Rep. Andy Harris (R)'s #MD01 for an 8D-0R shutout. https://t.co/ikdoJsUtds — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. This time, they're poised go even further: eliminating #MD01 Rep. Andy Harris (R) for an 8D-0R shutout. https://t.co/xN5afCNM0L — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A clear summation of where we're at by @amyewalter. https://t.co/bm3SYFs4oj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There’s a very good chance Dems are already planning redrawing Zeldin’s seat, #NY01, to be much bluer, so this makes some sense. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot @kkondik I've got it back to '92 https://t.co/SBwYvTcrbc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MAINE: as much as Dems would love to shore up (coast up?) #ME02 Rep. Jared Golden (D), Maine's process requires a 2/3 vote in the legislature to pass a map. That makes a map w/ minimal changes (right), moving just ~15k people from #ME01 to #ME02, much more likely. https://t.co/67my6uWMzX — PolitiTweet.org