Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of all the surprises today, to me the biggest is that Arizona didn't gain a 10th seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: the redistricting process in each state still matters a lot more than reapportionment. For example, AL keeping 7 seats keeps Dem hopes alive of suing to create a second Black majority district. MN keeping 8 could prevent a Republican from getting axed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is the first time California has lost representation in the House since statehood. West Virginia, which had six seats as recently as 1963, will have just two in 2023. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Minnesota beat out New York for the 435th seat in the House by 89 (!) people. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The net effect: if the 2020 election had been held under these new counts, Biden would have won with 303 EVs (instead of 306). Under most projections, he would have won with just 302 votes, so Census result is a tiny bit better for Dems than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a slightly smaller seat shift than expected. The big winners: AL, MN and RI keep their current seats and breathe a huge sight of relief. NY avoids losing a second seat. AZ misses out on gaining a seat. TX and FL each gain one less seat than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: new Census apportionment counts... TX +2 FL +1 CO, MT, NC, OR +1 CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

West Virginia slowest growing state, losing 3.2% of its population. Pretty much guarantees a seat loss. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First results: 331,449,281 U.S. residents. Averages to ~760k people per congressional district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Dchinni: Before the great Census reapportionment uprising on Twitter, just don't forget the most important point: The number of distric… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

True reapportionment nerds are watching today's release on @cspan. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Find out in 10 minutes! https://t.co/DVSN3skpy9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Where's @ESPNLunardi for Census reapportionment right now? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: even states that aren't gaining or losing seats need to redraw their lines to account for population shifts. For example, even if CA keeps all 53 of its districts, LA County may lose a seat to another part of the state owing to slower growth. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After the Census numbers are announced, @CookPolitical subscribers will have access to our 44-state rundown of what the numbers mean for redistricting, plus our new interactive map of the incumbents at greatest risk. https://t.co/1U1HRIYd41 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's apportionment day. How are House seats/Electoral votes allocated? Via a formula called the Method of Equal Proportions. Read all about it here: https://t.co/WXXJlld9wE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Where will Census reapportionment release (today at 3pm) differ from the estimates below? Here's my "bubble" watch: - can AL, CA, MN or RI avoid losing a seat? - can NY avoid losing a second seat? - will MT pick up a seat? - will FL pick up one or two seats? TX two or three? https://t.co/YAgUdtDcZp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @hansilowang: BREAKING: The 1st 2020 census results will be released today during a 3 p.m. ET press conference, Census Bureau says, incl… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not sure what day the census will do the big reveal. But when it’s out, @CookPolitical will have full analysis & we’ll launch our new redistricting dashboard. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here’s what the most recent population estimates suggest: TX +3 FL +2 AZ, CO, MT, NC, OR +1 AL, CA, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI, WV -1 But tbh, given all the challenges/uncertainty surrounding this census, I’m kind of expecting a few surprises. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Welcome to census reapportionment week, the best week of the decade.* *except for states losing seats — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NickRiccardi: When, next week, the US Census reallocates political power from New York and California to Florida and Texas, young peopl… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

EMILY's List knows this and endorsed Carroll Foy today, and she's still the only one w/ the ad potential to make it a race. But she likely can't afford DC broadcast. The only potential path for a McAuliffe opponent, as I see it: a WaPo endorsement & late surge. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

White men are ~25% of VA Dems, but are poised to be 100% of their last seven nominees for governor - unless something clarifies McAuliffe's opposition in the next six weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: This has been the story of the VA Democratic gubernatorial primary so far. If it continues to be the story, it's hard t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One more point here: yes, it's tough to reconcile algorithmic redistricting methods w/ the VRA. But don't underestimate the number of current maps that short-change opportunities for minorities b/c they *over*-pack minority voters into maj-min VRA districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JHagner It's also how Dems could avoid a 1-8 map in Indiana or Republicans could avoid a 0-8 map in Maryland, and would save states a ton of hassle/fighting. If you're looking for proportionality, don't expect it through districting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @greggiroux: By the end of next week we'll have the reapportionment of the 435 U.S. House districts for the 2022-2030 elections: https:… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CharlieCookDC: Here is the direct link to my episode on Zac McCrary’s Pro Politics podcast. link: https://t.co/rUa2aUCNNJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To prevent trampling county/municipal boundaries, maps would be required to split only the number of counties/subdivisions necessary to achieve equally populous districts (so for a state w/ 13 districts, 12 splits max). You're welcome. — PolitiTweet.org