Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: don't get me wrong, a commission map is certainly preferable for Dems vs. the GOP drawing the map all over again. But, w/ the delegation tied 7D-7R, there could still be more downside risk for Dems. Michigan is *very* high-stakes, w/ a ton of uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big decision for the commission: where to put Ann Arbor. If it's in a district similar to Rep. Debbie Dingell (D)'s current #MI12, she'd be safe. But if it's moved to, say, Rep. Tim Walberg (R)'s #MI07, both of them could be forced to run in highly competitive districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another major concern for Dems: #MI05 Rep. Dan Kildee (D), whose Flint seat has been trending R and voted for Biden by just 4%. #MI05 needs to pick up about 100k residents and he's surrounded on most sides by heavily pro-Trump territory. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, it's possible #MI09 Rep. Andy Levin (D) & #MI11 Rep. Haley Stevens (D) get thrown together (below), and #MI08 Rep. Elissa Slotkin is forced to run in a swingy, much more Lansing-centric seat. In the words of one House Dem, "I'm worried we've outkicked our coverage." https://t.co/rrNlZCR4bA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, the GOP gerrymander crumbled and Ds picked up two suburban Detroit seats, #MI08 and #MI11. But now, every seat needs to expand. And w/ two Black majority seats to preserve (#MI13 and #MI14 below), there may not be enough blue turf left to protect all four suburban Ds. https://t.co/Tqr9LjkRr7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here's why... https://t.co/KA4DNHogOC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MASSACHUSETTS: there isn't likely to be much drama this time in gerrymandering's birthplace. Ds hold veto-proof majorities & Rs haven't won a House race there since 1994. Rep. Richard Neal (D)'s #MA01 needs to pick up about 40,000 people, but not hard to solve. https://t.co/i5dbXI2fHd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: As everyone chews over prospects for redistricting, one of the more under-appreciated storylines from 2020 was Dems inabili… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The overarching theme is more interesting than the anti-woke part: the idea that Dems can't define themselves or their oppos… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I had to rank states by most uncertainty & highest redistricting stakes for House control, here are my top dozen atm: 1. New York 2. Ohio 3. Michigan 4. California 5. Arizona 6. New Jersey 7. North Carolina 8. Oregon 9. Texas 10. Florida 11. Illinois 12. Pennsylvania — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SamWangPhD Would respectfully disagree...just wait for the 14D-3R map in IL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you can’t tell by now, the most predictable effect of redistricting is that red states’ delegations are likely to get redder and blue states bluer - meaning the nation’s political conditions are likely to continue to deteriorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here is the current 19D-8R NY map (left) and the hypothetical 23D-3R gerrymander (right) shaded by partisan lean, via @davesredist. No voters moved, just the lines. https://t.co/7yLwlqbVmT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@EJDionne Here's our state-by-state redistricting scorecard (at bottom): https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Funny you should ask. The 2021 @CookPolitical Redistricting Scorecard currently projects a 3-4 seat net GOP gain from redistricting alone, w/ a lot of uncertainty in many states. https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF https://t.co/FuPVzWThuh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RRHElections @RussOnPolitics It's actually 2, 21 and 23 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot Actually not so sure about that. If NY hadn't lost a seat, it could be difficult to merge Upstate Republicans as efficiently as in the plan above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Likewise, Minnesota keeping its 8th seat isn't necessarily "good for Dems." Had it lost a seat, there was a strong chance courts would've merged GOP Reps. Tom Emmer and Michelle Fischbach into one seat (#MN06 on left). Instead, the status quo (right) is more likely. https://t.co/UyxaQxpmzx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections https://t.co/HbrZBXsLZC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: NY losing a seat isn't necessarily "bad for Dems." If the Dem legislature overrules the commission, it could replace the current 19D-8R map w/ the hypothetical 23D-3R map below. How maps are drawn will matter more than each state's number of seats. https://t.co/AAQXO18C5P — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: NY losing a seat isn't necessary "bad for Dems." If the Dem legislature overrules the commission, it could replace the current 19D-8R map w/ the hypothetical 23D-3R map below. Redistricting will matter a lot more than reapportionment. https://t.co/FOxfUB5Fvh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My 4,600-word, state-by-state analysis of what the new Census numbers mean for redistricting & the fight for House control, featuring must-see interactives by @alflinn, is now live for @CookPolitical subscribers: https://t.co/nr5qOFrBnl https://t.co/HUfigC6oPz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The weaker-than-expected seat counts for AZ, FL and TX (along w/ CA's seat loss) make you wonder whether there's a larger-than-expected, systemic undercount in heavily Hispanic areas. If so (and we'll find out in the fall), that could be bad news for those areas - and Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Everyone (including me) assumed Arizona would gain a 10th seat, but Idaho came nearly as close to gaining a 3rd seat. Wild. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In a few hours, @CookPolitical subscribers will get our 4,000 word state-by-state analysis of what the new Census numbers mean for redistricting. Link to subscribe: https://t.co/ot7MOpadWG https://t.co/HiFNTYZpmv — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: our updated 2021 @CookPolitical redistricting scorecard estimates Republicans will pick up 3.5 seats from reapportionment/redistricting alone. But, there's quite a bit of uncertainty in some states. https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF https://t.co/Jn4BdUnN5X — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

LA County will almost certainly bear the brunt of CA's decline from 53 to 52 seats, given its sluggish growth. But the musical chairs could be made easier by the fact that four of its Dem incumbents will be age 80+ next year and could retire. https://t.co/MSIalGwjfc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

House seats broken down by final redistricting authority (vs. 2011): - Republican: 187 (219) - Democratic: 75 (44) - Independent/bipartisan commission: 121 (88) - Split control: 46 (77) - At Large states: 6 (7) https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF https://t.co/voM1hHEDrK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: my takeaways on new Census data for @CookPolitical. https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, NY state reported 1,941 COVID-19 deaths as of April 1, 2020 - more than 21 times the margin it lost out on the House's final seat. — PolitiTweet.org