Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t https://t.co/kEyjWd1Fn0). https://t.co/zi3KPRsNf4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For our detailed MO analysis & full rundowns of every state's redistricting process be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical. https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O https://t.co/4x0UQR7WS8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Missouri Rs could also face pressure to get much more aggressive and target #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D), whose Kansas City seat isn't clearly protected by the VRA. In the hypothetical 7R-1D map below, all 7 GOP seats would've voted for Trump by 15+ in 2020. https://t.co/s1OTWtAznA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MISSOURI: per sources, the most likely GOP approach will be a 6R-2D status quo map that shores up #MO02 Rep. Ann Wagner, whose suburban seat (left) went for Trump by just 115 votes last fall. In the hypothetical map on the right, #MO02 would zoom right, to Trump +15. https://t.co/8qGttPzoZR — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @repdonyoung: 🚨🚨🚨I’M MAKING A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT AT NOON TODAY AK TIME.🚨🚨🚨 FOLLOW HERE FOR DETAILS. YOU WON’T WANT TO MISS THIS. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot OTOH McAuliffe has universal name ID while no one knows who Youngkin is yet — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Things not to say in a concession speech: "And I want to be unequivocally clear, I am going nowhere." (I think this losing #VAGOV candidate actually meant to say they are "not going anywhere") — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BTW, reports of ~510k total votes cast today are wrong. There was a reporting error in Fairfax Co. that added an extra ~15k votes on the NYT/other sites. Now that it's been corrected, we're down to ~480k turnout (8.0%) - a little closer to 2009 than 2017. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2009, turnout in the Dem #VAGOV primary was about 6.4% of all registered voters. With Trump in office in 2017, it spiked to 9.9%. With nearly all votes counted tonight, we're at 8.3% - right in between. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: with more Fairfax and absentee precincts reporting, overall turnout looks a bit higher. Still below 2017, but much closer to 2017 (543k) than 2009 (319k). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Unless there's some type of reporting error, Michelle Lopes-Maldonado (D) appears to have defeated Del. Lee Carter (D) in #HD50. This is Carter's second defeat today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Over 75% of precincts reporting and 302k votes counted so far. In 2017, turnout was 543k total. We'll see, but I'd say we're on pace for pretty low turnout. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mayor Justin Wilson (D) defeats former Mayor Allison Silberberg (D) in the Dem primary for Alexandria, VA Mayor. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Elizabeth Bennett-Parker (D) defeats Del. Mark Levine (D) in #HD45. Levine loses both the race for LG and his own delegate seat in one day (sorry, this is my home district). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mark Herring (D) wins the VA Dem primary for Attorney General, defeating Jay Jones (D). #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Hala Ayala (D) wins the VA Dem primary for Lieutenant Governor. Sam Rasoul (D) finishes second. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe clearly doesn't have a popularity problem w/ VA Dems - he's winning in a romp. The question is whether he has an enthusiasm problem. Despite spending $10M and universal statewide name ID, not a lot of Dems cared enough to turn out. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) is on pace to finish a distant second. The presence of Jenn McClellan (D) made it tough for her to gain any kind of media buy-in and make it a competitive two-way race. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Terry McAuliffe (D) wins the Dem primary for #VAGOV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, neither side's turnout was especially impressive in the #NM01 special last week (although GOP's was clearly worse). Early signs that voters aren't quite as super-charged w/ Trump out of office. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There were 542,858 votes cast in the 2017 Dem #VAGOV primary. From what I'm hearing, turnout in today's primary is quite a bit lower - even after $20M+ spent. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, that the #VAGOV Dem primary never turned into a competitive or high-turnout affair suggests some post-2020 voter fatigue. I'd put the over/under for McAuliffe at ~50%, not that it really matters. But he'd rather have a strong showing heading into the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Maybe you could convince me the chances of the GOP subverting the election in 2024 are overrated—but it's not just a 202… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The GOP success at gerrymandering state legislatures, with large numbers of districts, should be a reminder that expanding t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mattmxhn @MapsMetta congrats you figured it out — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Restoring a DOJ preclearance regime (Section 5) would have potentially big redistricting implications, allowing the civil rights division to block discriminatory maps & changes to voting laws (of course, subversion protections arguably even more urgent). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lost in the fury is that Manchin reiterated support for something that's always been much more workable/attainable than HR1: a bipartisan John Lewis voting rights bill that would revive and re-operationalize Section 5 of the VRA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: "The Gray Migration — hardly a new feature of the Sunshine State — provided the GOP with new voters. Between 1988 and 2020… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Worth noting that #NM01 Rep.-elect Melanie Stansbury (D) aggressively pushed back against GOP "defund the police" attacks by featuring law enforcement in her ads & touting securing public safety funding. She won by 25 points, surpassing Biden's margin. https://t.co/qPmdxsa0Yq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems' only hope for the midterms (but also one I'm not ready to dismiss): that the current GOP coalition is overly reliant on peripherally engaged voters who only bother to show up when Trump is on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org