Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Taniel The report says #CO08 2020 Sen result is Hickenlooper +8, up from +2 in the third staff plan...I think. Are you seeing something different? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The hypothetical below is one of the cleaner ways you could draw a map to approximate MI's partisan lean (7-6 Trump in '16, 7-6 Biden in '20) - but it's unlikely you'd achieve that balance if you were drawing a partisan-blind plan. https://t.co/ChogPikiFm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Michigan's rules say "districts shall not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party." But as long as you keep two 50%+ Black seats in Detroit, you'd have to slightly gerrymander the rest of the state in Dems' favor to prevent 8-9 of 13 districts from leaning R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not even going to post the Michigan map drafts circulating b/c they're bound to change a lot. But, they show why the commission would need to make choices that actively benefit Ds if they don't want a GOP-leaning map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Democrats have a lot riding on the legislation before Congress this week. But, their electoral fate is more closely tied to… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 To be clear, this wouldn't be a GOP legal argument in a VRA case - more of an optics argument. As a side note, I don't think it's possible to draw a 51% Black district in AL that's lean/likely R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: You might be overwhelmed with all the big redistricting news the last few days, but you're in luck! Next week @leahaskarinam… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Expect TX Rs to counter claims that their map is discriminatory by pointing to its potential to elect two non-white Rs: Monica De La Cruz Hernandez (#TX15) & Wesley Hunt (#TX38). Even so, treatment of minority communities (DFW especially) is likely to come under court scrutiny. https://t.co/yIDLYiXVcK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few months ago, typical midterm backlash and adverse gerrymanders looked like roughly co-equal threats to Dems' House majority in 2022. Today, the political environment/deterioration of Biden's approval has overtaken redistricting as the much bigger threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few reasons Rs won't gain as many seats from redistricting as initial "sky is falling" predictions on left: - Many states they control are existing GOP gerrymanders (TX, OH, etc.) - Blue-trending suburbs constrain their ability to add more seats - Dems can newly gerrymander NY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot Sure, if they’re not that well defined to those new voters. But it comes down to media markets. For Fletcher and Allred, who have recently spent tens of millions on ads in huge markets, I’m willing to bet new lines barely dent their incumbency advantage. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A narrative I’m skeptical of: that being drawn into a much bluer district suddenly makes Dem moderates like Lizzie Fletcher or Colin Allred vulnerable in a primary. Just because a district gets much safer doesn’t mean its Dem primary electorate has moved left. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the same time, there are features of this map some powerful Hispanic Dems might like: it could allow #TX15 Rep. Vicente González (D) to move into a safer seat, and it would strengthen #TX28 Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) vs. a primary on the left. So, not everyone might be on board. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes and litigation over TX redistricting. The fact TX Republicans’ proposed 25R-13D gerrymander doesn’t create a new majority Hispanic seat (even though Hispanics were 53% of TX’s net 2010-2020 growth) guarantees a VRA suit. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mcpli Absolutely a gerrymander - and as we pointed out in our story today, it's vulnerable to a VRA lawsuit over its failure to create an additional opportunity seat (and potential weakening of existing opportunities). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Last month's @CookPolitical TX redistricting preview accurately forecast the 25R-13D approach Republicans unveiled today. For in-depth analysis & scenario maps of every state, be sure to subscribe. https://t.co/f1nxhofhn6 https://t.co/D1TicXWGNN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Oregon makes it official, becoming the first state to pass a new congressional map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @lxeagle17: Congressional maps and proposals aren’t made by robots optimizing for partisan efficiency. They’re made by people who might… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the first few states are any indication, Republicans are erring on the side of defensive gerrymanders (rather than offensive ones). FL could be a major exception. Dems, on the other hand, are poised to play major offense in NY, IL and MD - and already have in OR. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Oregon is on track to finalize the nation's first new congressional map - a likely 5D-1R plan (deadline is tonight). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Overall, though, I'm really skeptical this is the map Georgia Rs will end up pursuing. It's a super-weak gerrymander. In fact, one GOP source describes this map as "as real as the Easter bunny." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under this plan, McBath's #GA06 would shift from Biden +11 to Trump +6 - a big shift! And probably enough to oust her in 2022. But at the rate the northern ATL suburbs are moving left, it could easily fall back into Dem hands in a few years. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A surprise in GA: state senate Rs propose making Rep. Lucy McBath (D)'s #GA06 more vulnerable but don't gerrymander it into nearly as red a seat as expected. Also, this plan would protect #GA02 Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @bluestein: Just in: The Georgia Senate is out with its draft of congressional districts, and this version makes Democratic Rep. @lucymc… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reason I was mildly surprised: Republicans could have drawn #TX03, #TX22 & #TX24 to be even redder. All three GOP seats moved 25+ pts left between 2012 and 2020, and as proposed they could easily be vulnerable again by the middle of the 2020s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Continued... #TX21 Roy: Trump +3 to Trump +20 #TX22 Nehls: Trump +1 to Trump +15 #TX23 Gonzales: Trump +2 to Trump +7 #TX24 Van Duyne: Biden +5 to Trump +12 #TX31 Carter: Trump +3 to Trump +20 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A rundown of how much TX GOP's proposed map would shore up nine of their own incumbents who badly need it: #TX02 Crenshaw: Trump +1 to Trump +23 #TX03 Taylor: Trump +1 to Trump +15 #TX06 Ellzey: Trump +3 to Trump +20 #TX10 McCaul: Trump +2 to Trump +20 https://t.co/PxgT5EtqLY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis of proposed TX congressional map is live for @CookPolitical subscribers: https://t.co/86Y91wjy4S https://t.co/hcAIACcfRm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under the proposed GOP map, #TX35 Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) would face a choice: keep running in Hispanic-majority #TX35 and create an opening for Wendy Davis (D) in the new #TX37 - or jump to #TX37 and create an opening for a Hispanic Dem in #TX35? https://t.co/MLjEazkp3i — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And the plot twists again! Oregon Dems now back on track to pass a map where the likeliest outcome is 5D-1R. — PolitiTweet.org