Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @davidaxelrod: Who runs Congress? That depends, in part, on who draws the maps! Tomorrow @UChiPolitics, the greatest minds on congressio… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: latest version of TX GOP's congressional map would move #TX15 Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)'s McAllen home into bluer #TX34 to clear the path for a GOP takeover of the redrawn #TX15, an 81% Hispanic seat slated to shift from Biden +2 to Trump +3. https://t.co/i4ziyhq32C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Possible redistricting implications here, as NC Republicans could attempt to fold #NC04 in w/ Rep. Kathy Manning (D)’s #NC06 for a 10R-4D map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans would love to stuff Dems from Conor Lamb’s open #PA17 into this newly open Pittsburgh seat. But the likelihood in PA is still a court-drawn map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This would likely pave the way for a new Hispanic Dem in #TX35. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Seriously, there's no better place to talk gerrymandering right now than the place where it's the state pastime (and I'll be meeting w/ key sources there this week. Stay tuned). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In Chicago? Wanna nerd out over redistricting? I'll be LIVE this Wednesday at @UChiPolitics w/ the talented @AllyMutnick interviewing the parties' top strategists. Be there or be [insert gerrymandered shape here]. https://t.co/M2gbI8Tyby https://t.co/xPppOh9FmP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject It's not possible to draw two districts w/ >50% citizen VAP, but extremely possible to draw two districts w/ >50% Hispanic VAP. I'd be curious how a court would decide that question, considering the three Black plurality districts in the first draft aren't all >50% VAP. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: a Chicago-based Dem legislator I've spoken w/ is floating the idea of a safer 14D-3R map w/ 14 seats that are Biden +11 or more *and* a new 2nd Hispanic seat on the north side (#IL03 in sketch below). We'll see. https://t.co/YglKosaq9q https://t.co/PrwLoeBDX2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Believe it or not, some Dems are pushing a truly wild draft that would leave them w/ even flimsier margins than in the first official proposal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty obvious why #IL03 Newman was the only Dem whose district was legit made *worse* in this map: retribution for ousting Lipinski in the 2020 primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even in Downstate IL, where Dems face no incumbent constraints, they stranded a few hyper-blue precincts in ultra-red districts, costing #IL13 and #IL17 a few points of Biden margin. TX Republicans weren't that sloppy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One GOP strategist called this afternoon and joked to me that there "must have been a Republican mole" in IL Dems' map-drawing room. A DC Dem consultant fuming over the map: "if you're going to make it that ugly, at least make it more effective." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IL Dems appear to have gone out of their way to make their gerrymander *less* efficient. As proposed (left), #IL03, #IL14 and #IL17 would be close to toss ups in 2022. With a few slightly different choices (example, right), 14/17 districts would've been Biden +10 or more. https://t.co/gOw2buyqO8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More like “Democrats gerrymander poorly.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One possible explanation for why the IL Dem map leaves three of their own seats at risk: hyper-safe Chicago Dems don't want to give up their own blue turf/take more GOP turf for the team. Quigley, Casten, Krishnamoorthi, Schakowsky, Schneider seats all pretty much unchanged. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Horrible map for Democrats - the median seat is 14 points to the right of the state, per 2020 presidential results. On current… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis up for @CookPolitical subscribers. It's the weirdest map I've seen yet. https://t.co/zPSxjqXjiI https://t.co/UjD9PvshBO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Similar situation w/ Rep. Marie Newman (D)'s #IL03. Had Dems given her all of Joliet instead of stretching it out into rural IL, she'd be in a double digit Biden seat instead of Biden +6. As drawn, it'd be a toss up in 2022. https://t.co/1QalIvj8xV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How much of a potential dummymander is the IL Dem proposal? It draws a crazy-looking #IL17 from Rockford to Bloomington, but inexplicably bypasses Freeport & Sterling along the way - leaving three extra points of Dem performance unrealized. https://t.co/Reptqb3uwa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

All things considered: this is just a really weird map. Besides the hideous lines, it carries a big risk of turning into a "dummymander" if Republicans have a good 2022. It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DrewSav No, it's still IL-14 (the one that goes from her house south of Naperville to the WI border). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is far from doomed in this proposed Biden +11 seat. Dems had the opportunity to make his seat Biden +18 and every current Dem seat Biden +10 or more - and passed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Illinois update: this Dem 14D-3R gerrymander is both uglier *and* less effective than I'd have expected. #IL03 Newman: Biden +6 #IL14 Underwood: Biden +8 #IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6 All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs. https://t.co/toEaok7day — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Paul4better Link? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early read: this is a very aggressive 14D-3R plan, with #IL17 going all the way from Rockford past Peoria to Bloomington. It's likely ~Biden +10 (now Trump +2). #IL03 Newman, #IL11 Foster and #IL14 Underwood not shored up as much as I'd expect (tho Underwood gets more Ds). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is even a bit more adventurous a gerrymander than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, if voters hadn't passed a commission, VA Dems could have pretty easily gerrymandered themselves at least an 8D-3R map that would've shored up all seven of their incumbents and flipped #VA01 (example below). https://t.co/U562llCqGo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this is a "unified" draft, the Dem consultant didn't do a very good job. This is a dream GOP map that would give Republicans a chance to win 6/11 seats in a Biden +10 state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Surge voters - those who didn’t show up in ‘16 - helped Ds win in ‘18 & ‘20. But, @t_woodbury1 finds many of them, esp. you… — PolitiTweet.org