Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A reminder: Youngkin likely only needs to hit 34% in Fairfax and 43% in Loudoun to win statewide. I think that's doable for him in this political environment. We'll see soon enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Illinois congressional remap likely punted to January after #IL06 Rep. Sean Casten's (D) allies in the legislature object to double-bunking him w/ #IL03 Rep. Marie Newman (D). In January, Springfield Dems won't need as high a threshold to pass their draft. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My guess is that Miller would start out as the primary favorite over Davis if this hyper-red #IL15 were to be signed into law. But this #IL15 has quite a bit of Davis's current territory, which looks like a Dem attempt to dissuade him from running statewide in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@FrankCalabrese My bad, uploaded the wrong file. The latest version: https://t.co/l1fIiCGCVO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IL Dems' latest map is pretty cleverly designed to target Rep. Mary Miller (R). It splits her current #IL15 (left) four ways, w/ her house added to Rep. Mike Bost's (R) #IL12 and the bulk of her GOP voters in #IL15 where Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is the only resident incumbent. https://t.co/b7rysjPuN2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprise here: Iowa Republicans poised to approve lines that would feature a 4-0 set of Trump '20 districts, up from 2-2 in the first (rejected) proposal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not too late to sign up for today's special @CookPolitical redistricting subscriber briefing at 11am. Ask me and @amyewalter anything! https://t.co/f1nxhnXFYw https://t.co/erwH8HyqHE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not too much substantive change from the second draft. Dems still leave #IL17 two points short of its max Dem potential, which they may come to regret if race there ends up being close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Realistically, I think LA still has enough Black population for two effective districts (down from three in past decades), but Compton/Carson would need to be moved out of #CA44 to bolster #CA37 and #CA43 (as shown below). We'll see what the commission decides. https://t.co/3vSLvQVuqv — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: McAuliffe closes w/ Charlottesville & Lafayette Square. If trying to make the election a referendum on Trump doesn’t work i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PhilArballo False: this map is not a proposal. It’s a starting point towards a draft and will change. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this scenario, if Waters were to move into Bass's open #CA37 to the north and Barragan were to run and win in #CA44 to the south, it would leave SoCal with only one Black member of Congress. I can't imagine that's going to go over well w/ the Black community in LA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this scenario, if Waters were to move into Bass's open #CA37 to the north and Barragan were to run and win in #CA44 to the south, it would leave CA with only one Black member of Congress. I can't imagine that's going to go over well w/ the Black community in LA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Which LA Dem seat would be eliminated in this visualization? To my eye it's Rep. Maxine Waters's (D) #CA43, which would be absorbed by Rep. Karen Bass's (D) open #CA37 to the north and Rep. Nanette Barragan's (D) #CA44 to the south. I'm thinking this is bound to change. https://t.co/iPGgI4eWeV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Disclaimer: this isn't even an official draft and it's going to change a lot in the months ahead, depending on public testimony. That said, my guess is that anything like this map would perform pretty well for Rs in 2022, but would have upside for Ds later in the decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South): #CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12 #CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8 #CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8 #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15 #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1 #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North): #CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6 #CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8 #CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4 #CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1 #CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9 #CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races). https://t.co/dK661YHE6J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A must-have for any House aficionado... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HacksOnTap: We’ve seen enough(!) it’s time for a new episode of Hacks on Tap with @davidaxelrod, @murphymike, and expert Hackaroo @Redi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early vote data is a totally useless indicator of what the ultimate VA electorate will look like next week. [checks early vote numbers anyway out of boredom] — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We'll get firmer numbers soon, but if this map were adopted (and it's not even an official draft yet)... #CA22 Devin Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3 (?) #CA10 Josh Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1 (?) #CA25 Mike Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to Biden +12 More to come... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, it's going to take me a few minutes to unpack this visualization (which is sure to change a lot en route to a formal draft). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChicoDelainky @daveweigel Lol what? Try finding a single thing I said about the CA recall prior to election night...I didn't even follow the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@daveweigel Lol I was mocking my repliers — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Premature tweet, Dave. The election hasn't happened yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're now up to six states that have completed new congressional maps, with 38 left to go. Keep tabs on @CookPolitical's new ratings: https://t.co/dUuIJ3Chn5? https://t.co/xCkdqRmsFQ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under the new TX lines, @CookPolitical rates 23 seats as Solid R and 13 seats as Solid D. The only other two: #TX15 OPEN (Gonzalez) (D) - Lean R #TX23 Tony Gonzales (R) - Likely R Full analysis: https://t.co/XmAzZgH4nU https://t.co/hwyxqPqbiJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New Texas maps, 2022 House ratings & analysis are live for @CookPolitical subscribers (GIF credit: @Alflinn). https://t.co/XmAzZgH4nU https://t.co/QNsL52BZzl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More likely scenario: Dems create a GOP vote sink for Garbarino and a whole bunch of Dems run for a neighboring, heavily Dem open #NY01 that goes out to the Hamptons. — PolitiTweet.org