Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: And proposed congressional maps for Massachusetts are out https://t.co/T4vtJtOgK5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bee_toes Yes, I can guarantee Youngkin will lose Fairfax County — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Youngkin has an excellent chance to win #VAGOV w/ a coalition very different from the last time a Republican won statewide (2009). That year, Bob McDonnell *won* Fairfax County. Youngkin doesn’t even need to hit 35% there to win tomorrow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Colorado becomes the 7th state in the country to complete a new congressional map. We're scoring the new #CO08 as +0.5 for each party, for a 4D-3R-1C map overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @notlarrysabato: The thing I’m noticing from all the stats is that the early vote is strongly D, but also very white. The outcome will… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinzinger had zero path in a GOP primary, which is why Dems had no reservations about axing his seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under this GOP proposal (left), #NC02 would be 39.8% Black. Plaintiffs could pretty easily show you can draw a much more compact district that's 45%+ Black (right). https://t.co/S6cJMsYN20 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @drewsav et. al. note, a preemptive VRA suit has already been filed in NC. As racial gerrymandering goes, this map is pretty blatant. It dilutes Black voters' strength in #NC01 by axing Greenville from Butterfield's seat. I'd be surprised if it passes court scrutiny. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This GOP proposal would be 10R-3D-1C (#NC02). But, it could risk a VRA suit for weakening Black voting strength in Rep. G.K. Butterfield's (D) northeastern #NC01 (#NC02 here), reducing it from Biden +9 to Biden +2. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprise here. Now we're on track for the first Dem incumbent vs. incumbent showdown of 2022: Marie Newman (D) vs. Sean Casten (D) in #IL06. And, Newman reps much more of the new CD than Casten, per IL data sleuth @FrankCalabrese. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An underrated factor in #VAGOV’s closeness: the declining salience of COVID as an issue for voters. It’s telling McAuliffe’s closing message is basically just Trump, not hammering Youngkin for holding an unpopular position: opposing vax mandates, even for healthcare workers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This reality always made it fairly easy for IL Dems to target his seat, #IL16, in redistricting (as they did last night by merging him w/ GOP Rep. Darin LaHood). Preserving it likely would've led to Kinzinger's defeat by a pro-Trump R anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinzinger becomes the 2nd pro-impeachment R to retire, basically acknowledging he can't get past a primary. I'd be somewhat surprised if more than 3/10 pro-impeachment Rs are back in Congress in 2023. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: McAuliffe by 1 in the final Post/Scher poll, which now counts as decent news for Democrats in a state Biden won by 10 https… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: I think Republicans actually have a good chance to win the VA governor’s race this year. We’ll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NapervillePol @Uncrewed It is possible, but that's besides the point. An easy way for Dems to make #IL06 better for them would've been to give all of Mount Greenwood to Bobby Rush. 🤣 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Uncrewed I guess the point is, there were easy ways for Dems to make #IL06 Biden +12 or even +15, w/ a stronger pro-Dem trend. Right now, we're seeing Dems struggle in a Biden +10 state w/ an even bluer trend (VA). Unlikely to decide House control, but still a possible headache. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I also wonder if this new #IL06, which is Biden +10 but includes SW Chicago burbs that are trending right, could be vulnerable to an R in 2022 if Casten/Newman out-progressive each other in a primary. Not hard to see this 14D-3R becoming 12D-5R in a poor Dem cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Map now awaits Gov. J.B. Pritzker's signature. #IL03 Newman (D) double-bunked w/ #IL04 Garcia (D), but I'd guess she runs in #IL06 vs. Casten (D). If #IL17 is close next fall, Dems may regret stranding blue Bloomington/Normal precincts in #IL16, leaving it 2-3 pts less blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: IL Dems' 14D-3R gerrymander passes the full legislature. Vote is 71-43 in the state house, w/ zero votes to spare for needed three-fifths majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jbarro The map revisions made tonight gave Casten his own seat to appease him and his allies — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's midnight (and showtime) in Springfield...can Dems pass their 14D-3R plan? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI: an excellent final @CookPolitical analysis of #VAGOV by @JessicaTaylor. https://t.co/gomJsDmaC5 https://t.co/tJd3W32wCL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot @allymutnick Not happening...Garcia running on south side no matter what — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Do I think it's possible Youngkin wins by eight? Sure. The last time the political climate was bad for Dems, McDonnell won by 17 pts (!) a year after Obama carried VA by 6 pts. Biden +10 to Youngkin +8 would actually be a smaller swing. Do I think it's likely? No. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This draft would be lights out for #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) and would make Rep. Dave Schweikert's (R) #AZ06 and retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D) #AZ02 pure tossups, resulting in a 4R-3D-2C split (currently delegation is 5D-4R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The latest versions also stretch #IL17 up to Rock Cut State Park to barely grab the house of Rockford state Sen. Steve Stadelman (D), a sign Dems could be prepping him to run for Rep. Cheri Bustos's open seat (tho curiously, they've made #IL17 only a weak Dem seat). https://t.co/edC4ltlIHI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: IL Dems' *fourth* draft map merges Reps. Marie Newman (D) & Chuy Garcia (D) in an #IL04 where Garcia would have a big advantage, leaving Rep. Sean Casten (D) in an #IL06 by himself. Still unclear whether this version has the votes to pass. https://t.co/bH4Bm1QNdk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Garrett_Archer: Arizona redistricting commission has adopted a draft map for the state's nine congressional districts that will be pres… — PolitiTweet.org