Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Loudoun Co.: up to 128k votes counted, and McAuliffe winning there by just 53%-47%. McAuliffe better hope for a huge showing in the remaining VBM, but Youngkin performed *much* better than I expected w/ the early vote. Advantage: Youngkin. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Northumberland Co. (Northern Neck, rural): Youngkin needed to win it by 26%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 29%, w/ higher than expected turnout. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, I'd rather be Youngkin (R). But we've still got a long way to go. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Brunswick Co. (Black majority, rural): McAuliffe needed to win it by 4%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 5%. Long way to go, but this race looks tight right now. #VAGOV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Manassas: McAuliffe needed to win it by 12% by my benchmarks. It had higher than expected turnout, and he only won it by 10%. McAuliffe needs to compensate for it in other types of suburbs to win. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, based on a limited number of rural counties fully reporting (Bland, Buchanan), Youngkin is mostly hitting the rural numbers he needs. Long way to go. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fairfax: 133k early votes reported and McAuliffe winning the batch 74%-26%. That seems to exclude the vote-by-mail that could be even better for McAuliffe. To my eye, we're on pace for a close statewide finish. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just got up to 108k votes reported in Loudoun, and McAuliffe lead there down to 53%-46%. According to Loudoun Co., 40k of these *are* early votes...in which case, that would be good for Youngkin. Need a few minutes to sort this out. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in Loudoun Co.: 71k votes reported and McAuliffe wins the batch 55%-45%. @vpapupdates is reporting those are *Election Day* votes, not EV/VBM. If that's true, it would be a good result for McAuliffe. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe's 15% of the EDay vote so far in Buchanan Co. (far SWVA) strikes me as pretty respectable, considering Biden got 16% there and we don't even have EV/VBM reporting yet. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe wins the Arlington early/absentee vote 82%-18%. That 64 pt. margin will come down as Election Day votes come in, but McAuliffe needs a ~52 pt. margin there to win statewide. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Youngkin running up enormous margins among EDay batches of votes in rural, red VA counties. Doesn't tell us much yet. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, here are the targets I think Youngkin/McAuliffe need to exceed in each VA locality to win tonight (though we already know overall turnout will be a bit higher). #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're expecting to get Fairfax absentee/early vote numbers quickly after 7pm tonight (unlike in the past). If Youngkin gets over 30% of that vote, that'd be a great sign for him (but I'd still expect it to be sub-30%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition, here are six races I'd consider on the "outskirts" of deciding control but still competitive/worth watching: #HD27: Robinson (R) #HD40: Helmer (D) #HD51: OPEN (D) #HD66: OPEN (R) #HD68: Adams (D) #HD91: Mugler (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the VA House of Delegates (currently 55D-45R), here are the nine races likeliest to decide control: #HD10: Gooditis (D) #HD12: Hurst (D) #HD21: Convirs-Fowler (D) #HD28: Cole (D) #HD72: VanValkenburg (D) #HD73: Willett (D) #HD75: Tyler (D) #HD83: Guy (D) #HD85: Askew (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You (and others) are assuming that it's just one red rural county where turnout is surging. In 2020, about 51% of Virginia's vote was cast in localities that were more pro-Trump than the state as a whole. Virginia's vote isn't dominated by super-blue counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: While we are waiting for results, make sure to read @amyewalter's latest on what we can expect to learn from #VAGOV http… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another few big blue localities w/ 4pm turnout reports. Fairfax County now up to 96% of its '17 totals, Alexandria City up to 95%. That's robust turnout in suburban Dem strongholds, but not as big a surge vs. '17 as we're seeing in rural red localities. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its '17 total at 4pm. But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. '17. Whether it's enough for Youngkin, we'll see. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its '17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its '17 turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on local turnout reports, VA is on track to break 3 million votes, which would surpass gubernatorial record of 2.6M set in 2017. Not clear which side that benefits, but this isn't a scenario in which turnout in blue areas is falling through the floor. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, EDay turnout prognostication is inherently messy (and apologies for screwing up the AB/EV numbers in the tweets I deleted earlier). In full disclosure, I was once a college student/Charlottesville voter who woke up late, so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by the upswing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: the pace of in-person voting in Charlottesville increased *a lot* between 9am and 1pm, now putting it on track to perhaps slightly exceed 2017's 16.5k turnout - a relief for Dems. https://t.co/VbokbIcMMs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good turnout inside the Beltway so far today, perhaps on pace to slightly exceed my model/expectations. The real concern for Dems today is turnout in younger/non-white and less upscale/professional areas. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn I was careless to confuse the 4,543 EV in the registrar's tweet w/ the 6,461 AV/EV, but was also calculating the 9am '21 vs. 9am '17 to measure the pace. Obviously there are pitfalls in doing it that way, but 1pm update should be somewhat more instructive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great resource for tracking the fight for the VA House of Delegates tonight - which will tell us just as much about the overall political environment as the statewides. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org