Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The lesson here: purely partisan commissions (no unaffiliateds/tie-breakers) have little incentive to work together. So far, MT/CO have passed maps, and AZ/CA/MI/NJ still on track to. VA was set pretty much set up to fail, and WA always looked tenuous this cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

WA becomes the second state (along w/ VA) where a state supreme court will take over redistricting after a commission’s deadlock/failure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, this GOP proposal says Ohio Rs are afraid of an adverse ruling from the OH Supreme Court (and still should be). It wouldn't be hard for Rs to draw a maximal 13R-2D gerrymander. But this gives Kaptur (D) a shot in #OH09, and Dems longer-term shots in #OH01, #OH13 & #OH15. https://t.co/Tm8TcmaZ4C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bigger impact of redistricting: the winnowing of competitive seats. In 2020, 51/435 House seats voted within 5% either way in the presidential race. 91/435 voted within 10% either way. We think these numbers could decline by as much as one third under new lines. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting update: our latest @CookPolitical estimate is a GOP net gain of ~2.5 seats from redistricting alone, w/ still a lot of uncertainty in many states (esp. those w/ commissions, split control & lawsuits). https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/qB2xCvaJni — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A safe Dem seat, but think we can expect a lot more of these on the D side in the next few months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still looks like a GOP attempt at 13R-2D, though a few of those 13 would be winnable for Ds under the right circumstances (esp. #OH01, #OH09, #OH13 and #OH15). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @daveweigel: Republicans have gained two TX seats in the last month - both Hispanic districts, one via special election one via party sw… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only state that has never elected a woman to Congress? Vermont. If #VTAL Rep. Peter Welch (D) runs for Leahy's seat, that's going to be a huge consideration in the open House seat race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Thorongil16 What’s a thorongil? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Thorongil16 I’ll follow you but the standout of tonight’s palooza was @PranavC_ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Great piece by @PoliticsReid on how redistricting has exploded in the public consciousness since a decade ago. https://t.co/aTnFY2ajzp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MappingFL: The final votes are in for the #FL20 Democratic primary. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick has edged Dale Holness by FIVE RAW VOTE… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Utah becomes the 12th state to complete congressional redistricting (following Montana earlier today), enshrining a 4R-0D shutout by splitting Salt Lake Co. four ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Supreme Court of Virginia throws out all three GOP nominees to serve as "special master" to draw new redistricting maps. Orders Rs to nominate three or more new names (the court will then select one D/R each to draft maps). Not a good start for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: the latest on key map developments in AR, FL, MD, MT and OK. https://t.co/gQh7gvUnCE https://t.co/8XryFZftUS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: https://t.co/KrlzQ0xGxX https://t.co/wRT808liju — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Critical Taste Theory is killing the Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of Dems prematurely dancing on Rep. Devin Nunes (R)'s political grave in light of #CA22 being flipped from Trump +5 to Biden +9 seat in this draft. Reality check: Nunes could easily take his $$ north to run for the Trump +10 seat anchored by Modesto. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: there are roughly even numbers of Ds/Rs in these categories. It's easy to see how the current 42D-11R breakdown could give way to 39D-13R in a good GOP year ('22?), but maybe 47D-5R in a great Dem year. And don't forget: this draft will change, perhaps a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally, the three biggest "winners" in this draft: #CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +20 #CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +7 #CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk: #CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5 #CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13 #CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied #CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4 #CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9 #CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27): #CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10 #CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9 #CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated #CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9 #CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... https://t.co/ZOllyJzpnv https://t.co/kP02BMXCq2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow…weird choice by Cawthorn. #NC11 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only possible explanation, if this map doesn't undergo drastic changes: Republicans are afraid of an adverse "Fair Districts" ruling from the FL Supreme Court and want to ensure their own incumbents' safety first. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems would have a real shot at 16R-12D under this FL GOP draft, an *improvement* vs. 16R-11D right now. But again, the key word here is draft. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake? https://t.co/R7zIhnXOSn — PolitiTweet.org