Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If AZ ends up w/ a unanimous congressional map, it would be a monumental achievement after what happened a decade ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/3O7ZjRnFOM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fiercer performance by a redistricting commissioner than Shereen Lerner’s (D) in AZ. She used every negotiating tactic in the book to make the AZ map better for Dems, and it was weirdly captivating reality TV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ update: after intense negotiations, commissioners are on the verge of passing a map that would’ve split 5-4 Biden in 2020, a slight boost for Dems over yesterday’s iterations (though two of those Biden seats, #AZ01 and #AZ06, remain very tenuous for Dems). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just wrapped up our 4,300-word initial preview of California's 52 new districts and who's favored where. Available to @CookPolitical subscribers in the morning... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you want to see how a redistricting commission *should* work, watch AZ's livestream. Both parties' commissioners passionately hashing it out, w/ tie-breaking member Erika Neuberg doing a pretty fair job of adjudicating, in my view. https://t.co/YCMrzVf8zH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Rep. Jim Costa (D) announces for reelection in the Fresno/Tulare #CA21 (Biden +20), which frees up the new Modesto/Merced #CA13 (Biden +11) for Rep. Josh Harder (D). https://t.co/38LlglDwPg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@benrudin @CookPolitical CA22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new most competitive district in Orange County, CA is #CA45, which is 41% AAPI by voting age population and had a big pro-Trump swing in 2020: 2016: Clinton 54%-41% 2020: Biden 52%-46% It's where Rep. Michelle Steel (R) will probably run. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. https://t.co/9tH6379MTc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Bringing up current BBB for a vote next year may help progressives vent, it brings more hurt than help to D’s in the long-r… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

VA redistricting commission: devolves into 8-8 partisan stalemate, everyone goes home angry. CA redistricting commission: works collaboratively, approves new maps 14-0, pops multiple bottles of bub. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Shorter CA redistricting commission: time to hit the club. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical ratings for non-solid CA seats: #CA03 McClintock (R) Likely R #CA13 Harder (D) Lean D #CA22 Valadao (R) Toss Up #CA27 Garcia (R) Toss Up #CA40 Kim (R) Likely R #CA41 Calvert (R) Likely R #CA45 Steel (R) Toss Up #CA47 Porter (D) Lean D #CA49 Levin (D) Likely D — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: .@CookPolitical subscribers can read our latest #PASen GOP primary analysis from last week’s newsletter: GOPers in the s… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new California map is a good example of why getting a few big redistricting breaks isn't going to save the House for Dems. Yes, it's a great map for Dems and could be 47D-5R in a great Dem year. But in a good GOP year, we might be looking at 41D-11R (virtually no change). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new California map is a good example of why getting a few big breaks in redistricting isn't going to save the House fo Dems. Yes, it's a great map for Dems and could be 47D-5R in a great Dem year. But in a good GOP year, we might be looking at 41D-11R (virtually no change). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Better news for Rs in AZ: in the latest whiplash, tie-breaking chair Erika Neuberg has sided 3-2 with the GOP commissioners to use this map as new "near-final" map. It split 5-4 Trump in 2020 and would probably split 6R-3D in 2022 (current delegation is 5D-4R). https://t.co/zr5OVpc8Ub — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The CA map is both less competitive and better for Dems than initial drafts (and my priors heading into the process). The main feature of the new map: 18 seats w/ 50%+ Latino voting age populations, up from 13 now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The last big remaining redistricting puzzle pieces: are Dems able to pass a really aggressive gerrymander in NY? And do courts strike down GOP gerrymanders in NC and/or OH? If those break Dems’ way, we’re looking at a wash nationally. If not, result would be a small GOP gain. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s official: CA’s citizen commission votes 14-0 to approve new congressional lines. In a huge win for Dems, all 42 of their incumbents get double digit Biden seats (two are merged due to CA’s seat loss). Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Due to population, CA’s lost seat was always going to come out of LA County. But there are four LA Dem incumbents over the age of *80,* so the chances of a retirement preventing musical chairs were always high. Sure enough, 2/4 announced exits in the past week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: Already a total of 26 cases in seven states have been filed contending that recently passed congressional and/or legislative map… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The craziest Orange County scenario would be Reps. Michelle Steel (R) and Katie Porter (D) *and* ex-Rep. Harley Rouda (D) facing off for the new coastal #CA47. All three live in this Biden +11 seat (though I think Steel could move north to #CA45 and Rouda could follow). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t hold your breath for the VA map to change in any big way. For one, Dems’ last-ditch effort to get a better map (below) urges the court to draw a #VA07 that unites Charlottesville/Albemarle with “suburban Richmond County” which…doesn’t exist. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, 23 of 221 House Dems (10%) are not seeking reelection in 2022. The final number of Dem exits will be: — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The CA commission is on the verge of merging the seats of Reps. Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) and Alan Lowenthal (D). They're both 80. And now, they're both retiring. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Welcome to peak redistricting week (a ton on the line in AZ, CA, MI, NJ, et al. ICYMI, latest analysis of state-by-state developments is up for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/VtwTcmgumb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@benrudin Yeah, the incumbents are listed incorrectly there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Potential casualty: #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In true NJ fashion, the commission is saying it'll vote on maps on Wednesday, but there's no public draft. IMO raises the chance there's a bipartisan 9D-3R "deal map" that wouldn't need a tie-breaking vote. https://t.co/keBUF1M35H — PolitiTweet.org