Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@karltwo2 @reidepstein I wanted to help, and offered to share our district-by-district numbers, which we've worked decently hard to compile. He flat out refused, which seemed poor, especially for the NYT. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I contacted the writer, @reidepstein, about the inaccuracies, and he admitted he didn't have independent access to the district-level data. But he refused to revisit/correct. 🤷 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This NYT story features inaccurate data that actually understates the competitive decline. There are only 17 seats that voted for Biden/Trump by less than 5 pts in the 29 states w/ new district lines, down from 39 right now (a 56% decline). https://t.co/SEtMu1qqhE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's little doubt that if the NY reform's anti-gerrymandering language were enforced as the OH reform's language has been, NY's Dem gerrymander would be struck down too. The only real difference in the outlook: the timeline & makeup of state courts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There aren't many breaks Dems *haven't* caught in redistricting so far. Sure, you can point to commission maps in AZ/IA/MT, or that MD Dems didn't pursue the 8D-0R gerrymander Steny Hoyer wanted. But the big questions (CA, NJ, MI, OH, AL, NY, NC) have gone their way. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What might a "partisan fairness" map look like in NC? Perhaps 7-7 Trump/Biden, w/ four competitive districts (3 narrow Biden, 1 narrow Trump). But it takes some splitting of cities and conscious pro-Dem choices to get there. This is going to get interesting. https://t.co/bMCL3sEHwN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ProfNickStephan: It’s certainly possible — but note that Republicans *didn’t* appeal the equally adverse Ohio Supreme Court ruling. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This wasn't unexpected, but what's striking is that the court is demanding a "partisan fairness" standard in the GOP's remedial plan. That could mean a slight Dem *gain* vs. the current 8R-5D map - and perhaps a four seat (!) swing vs. the GOP's map. https://t.co/rKyKddxJ5c — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there it is: the NC Supreme Court, in a 4-3 ruling along party lines, strikes down the GOP congressional map that might have led to an 11R-3D split, orders NC's General Assembly to submit new maps by Feb. 18th. https://t.co/aYO2e88Jny https://t.co/8fG3aAqgmx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RalstonReports: News: Almost three times as many Dems became Repubs as Repubs became Dems in January in NV. Again. All trends seem go… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, the Dem field in #NY01 is getting super crowded (old seat was Trump +4, now Biden +11). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: The redistricting wars are officially shifting into the courtroom Judges could direct the drawing of some 75 seats i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: a state-by-state accounting of how we've arrived at our projection of a 2-3 seat Dem redistricting gain. https://t.co/1Jp9647Uq1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New York becomes the 30th state to adopt a new congressional map, and Dems' gerrymander could lead to the single biggest seat shift in the country (19D-8R to 22D-4R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Idejder If the map hadn't changed, Republicans would've had an excellent chance to capture #OR04. But under the new lines, they don't. Hence -0.5 for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In full disclosure, a component of the shift in our scorecard's outlook is methodological. We're comparing the new maps to how districts *could* have broken down in '22 had lines not changed - hence GOP -0.5 each in NV/OR, even though Rs won't lose any seats there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in: - FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be - NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps - PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map - AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.* https://t.co/7DsP5LEDD0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: for the first time, Democrats have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA & elsewhere, they're are on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps alone.* https://t.co/ewWgCewmlU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @baseballot: Here's why the overturning of Alabama's congressional map was such a big deal: it could lead to additional Black-opportunit… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Marie Newman's (D) primary prospects against Rep. Sean Casten (D) in the new #IL06 have taken a turn for the worse, to put it mildly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NickRiccardi: A good look at how changing voting procedures doesn’t really help one party or another https://t.co/JgGSwGl7Zx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PranavC_ I've seen enough, you're admitted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here's my rough guess of what a PA map would look like if the state Supreme Court applies the same principles it did in 2018: a 9-8 Biden map, w/ five highly competitive seats (3 narrow Biden, 2 narrow Trump). https://t.co/NAa9gNp3Vh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there it is: PA's Dem-majority Supreme Court to take over congressional redistricting from pro-Trump lower court judge. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First step towards NY Dems passing their 22D-4R gerrymander. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: my full take on NY Dems' 22D-4R gerrymander. https://t.co/3QitpF8Evq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ReporterCioffi: The over 125 Republicans who voted against certifying Electoral College results on Jan. 6, 2021, combined to take in $5… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here's the campaign website of the lower court judge who was poised to pick PA's new congressional map until the Dem-majority PA Supreme Court issued a stay yesterday. https://t.co/8psht0Y6b3 — PolitiTweet.org