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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We still don't have a full county reporting in major metro Alabama. Big unknowns: Shelby, Baldwin, Mobile, Montgomery. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The county-by-county margins point towards a really tight race. The turnout, however, points ever-so-slightly to Jones. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Turnout is down relative to what I expected just about everywhere counting's done, but that's especially true in heavy Moore areas. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Yep. https://t.co/vyBof5qVXO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem. The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far… https://t.co/umdN1DbdUc
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wow. Look at turnout in Perry Co. (Black Belt). It's at 76% of 2016 turnout and Jones is winning by 59%. Meanwhile,… https://t.co/LcaHn1Gjn3 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Moore doing better than we expected in his base, and Jones doing better than we expected in his base. What else is… https://t.co/BkjuAblR3L — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A bit of good news for Jones: Russell is now all reporting. He needed to win by about 26% there, and he won it by 30%. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This race is very, very close. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Limestone now 25/26 precincts, and Moore lead shrinks back down to 19%. The reason it's so difficult to tell what's… https://t.co/yl780VdJ2P — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Tonight feels like a rollercoaster. Now, you might rather be Moore than Jones. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Jones losing Houston Co. by 28% w/ 18/28 precincts reporting. Our estimate says he needs to be within 17% of Moore there. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The last few minutes' results have been pretty good for Moore. Now back to a dead heat. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @McCormackJohn: Now with 77% of Limestone reporting, Moore ahead by 25 points there https://t.co/dKiOEeBCeM — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Just like that, Limestone Co. ticks up to a 22% Moore lead, right on pace for what he needs there. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
So far, you'd rather be Doug Jones than Roy Moore. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Half of Limestone reporting, Moore up 18% there (likely needs +22%). So far, Jones hitting slightly more benchmarks than Moore. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
So far, Doug Jones is holding his own in rural Alabama. Still extremely early. #ALSEN — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Very early, positive news for Jones: he received 31% of the vote in one Cullman County precinct. This is important… https://t.co/HqWgL8FJSU — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One thing you're not going to lose $$ betting on tonight: a much, much wider urban vs. rural divide than past close Alabama races. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The Math: What Jones Needs To Do To Win https://t.co/tkI0asDNUD — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
ICYMI: Here's my model of what Jones/Moore need in each county to win #ALSEN. https://t.co/mk2f3mkv8l — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The last week, #ALSEN has felt a little more like '15 #LAGOV (when an above-average Dem beat a damaged Vitter) than… https://t.co/WCouCU64J9 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical That's a fair criticism. I've revised model slightly to account for your wisdom: https://t.co/mk2f3mkv8l — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical Pt well taken but my model doesn't have black share anywhere near 39% b/c some Jones vote… https://t.co/xgOWVSrhG7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical Keep in mind, '16 turnout in rural black AL counties was pretty weak relative to '12. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Nate_Cohn @CookPolitical Obama got 9,045 votes in Macon in '12. So, with a huge Dem push to turn out Tuskegee, I d… https://t.co/4tfTwqzdyl — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ZacMcCrary: At long last Election Day in AL is here. I've just posted an Election Day primer. Cliff Notes version: I have no idea who… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@CookPolitical Hillary Clinton got 729,547 votes in Alabama. Doug Jones may actually need more votes to win tonight. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To win #ALSEN (@CookPolitical PVI R+14), Jones needs: 1) Ridiculous Dem margins in Birmingham/Montgomery 2) Strong… https://t.co/iCfJFdsYG3 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here's my model of what Jones/Moore need in each county to win #ALSEN: https://t.co/pMK8vY3LWc — PolitiTweet.org
