Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: the #TX34 special election couldn't be coming at a worse time for Democrats and could shine a national spotlight on their woes on immigration & w/ Hispanic voters. It starts in Toss Up at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/VZ3SeWcw90 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: There are two big "known unknowns" going into the midterms. Will the Jan. 6 committee's findings or the Supreme Court's… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A fact I find mildly surprising: four of the five House members who have announced their retirements since Feb. 15 have been Republicans (I would’ve expected more Dem exits). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This could clear the way for Trump-endorsed former White House aide Max Miller (R) to win the newly drawn suburban Cleveland #OH07, which would've been 88% new to Gibbs anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jpelzer: BREAKING: U.S. Rep. Bob Gibbs to retire amid primary battle forced by redistricting https://t.co/e61Beu1mlS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A terrific overview of what’s going on in state legislative redistricting by @baseballot, @bycoffe and @ryanabest. https://t.co/kgCqwcTvbY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not unexpected, but Upton becomes the 4th pro-impeachment R of 10 to retire this November. Clears the way for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) in #MI04, which remains in Solid R at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Maryland becomes the 41st state to finalize a new congressional map (only FL, MO, NH to go). This compromise map is likely to preserve a 7D-1R split, though #MD06 Rep. David Trone (D) could still be vulnerable this fall. https://t.co/PYwNE9MXG7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trial begins today in Kansas, where there’s a real chance a GOP gerrymander gets overturned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jwpetersNYT: Sarah Palin announces she’s running for Congress, reentering national politics after more than a decade hiatus. https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: In the House, Dems facing CAT 4-5 political headwinds. However, unlike ‘94/‘10, D’s have more structural advantages (fewer… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Key point here: for the NY lines to change for this fall, less GOP-friendly higher courts would not only need to agree w/ plaintiffs on the merits, but potentially alter the election calendar. Just like OH Rs, NY Dems could be saved by the bell. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early read on NY lower court judge blocking Dems’ 22D-4R gerrymander: ruling likely to be stayed on appeal, so Dems believe map will remain in place, at least for 2022. Huge stakes here, as a “neutral” map could cost Dems 3-4 seats and erase their nationwide remap gains. https://t.co/qeAjHeWZ5z — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JeffWice: Judge McAllister said he will issue his decision in the NY senate and congressional redistricting case later today or tomorr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@billburton @Nate_Cohn @EricHolder @marceelias There was undoubtedly impressive work done by many including @kellycward with much foresight, but luck was clearly part of it too (e.g. two Rs filing in a NC SC race a few years ago and giving Dems a 4-3 court majority, Rs unable to coalesce behind maximal gerrymanders, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Despite the headline, this internal poll by Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R) top primary rival finds Cawthorn in pretty safe shape for reelection, leading state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) 52%-20%. Cawthorn only needs to clear 30% to avoid a runoff. https://t.co/0waA9MS62H — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Louisiana becomes the 40th state to complete congressional redistricting (if you count Ohio's GOP map), with GOP legislators overriding Gov. Edwards (D) veto to enact a 5R-1D map maintaining just one Black majority seat. Lawsuit filed, but after Alabama, it's a long shot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: owing to court decisions in Maryland & Ohio, Democrats are now on track to net 1-2 House seats nationally from redistricting alone, down from 4-5 seats in @CookPolitical's previous estimate. In other words, back to a very modest gain. https://t.co/2BVbzA69aS https://t.co/4GJcuYcyUq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: Maryland & Ohio rulings brighten GOP's redistricting outlook. https://t.co/2BVbzA69aS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm seeing a lot of news outlets depict Ohio's GOP-enacted map as giving Rs an advantage in at least 10 of 15 seats, but that understates the gerrymander. There are 10 solid R seats, two solid D seats and three competitive seats. There's a real chance of a 13R-2D rout in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We'll have to wait until April to see how much advantage FL's next congressional map gives to Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ProPoliticsPod: Latest episode live w/Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict). Talking Dave's path to be a Sr Editor w/@CookPolitical, his approac… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This schedule would seem to preclude a legal challenge to Ohio’s GOP map before the May primary, paving the way for a map as lopsided as 13R-2D to be used for the 2022 elections - unless a federal court intervenes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there you have it: MD Dems unveil a cleaner-looking 7D-1R map that seeks to save #MD06 Rep. David Trone (D). Will MD courts allow it? Stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maryland: Rs badly want two safe seats, an Eastern Shore #MD01 and a western #MD06 (left). But I'd expect Dems to try to save their current 7D-1R advantage - and Rep. David Trone (D) - w/ something more like the example on the right. We'll see what MD courts say. https://t.co/QayjW4yvIx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Democrat most at risk in any court-ordered redraw: Rep. David Trone (D), whose heavily gerrymandered #MD06 would revert to a GOP-leaning western MD seat under most maximally compact proposals (including the Hogan commission's). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: a Maryland court has struck down Democrats' 7D-1C-0R map as an illegal partisan gerrymander, the first such state-level victory in the GOP's direction. If replaced w/ a neutral map, this could end up costing Dems 1-2 seats. https://t.co/ceMsDlJfzB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because a #TX34 special election would be held under the old lines (Biden +4) instead of the new lines (Biden +15), there's a good chance Republican Mayra Flores would win a few months of Vela's unexpired term. But she could simultaneously lose the race for the next full term. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Spoiler alert: no. https://t.co/N7W0f6fQdJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Presumably a #TX34 special election would take place in conjunction w/ the November general, since the primary has already happened. #TX15 Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D), who is moving over to #TX34, is the favorite for the full term. — PolitiTweet.org