Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just finished listening, and this is as high-level a discussion about the promise & challenges of applying stats to… https://t.co/2fZnggrD18 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@galendruke Ouch (ok fine, this might be nerdier than any of ours) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Politics Podcast: Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering? @NateSilver538 & @GalenDruke sit down w/ Prof. Moon Duchin of Tufts. https://t.co/gj6r8SIdLd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

See: Buttigieg. Agree w/ @NateSilver538 that the press coverage (almost all glowing) is finally catching up to th… https://t.co/PcKeCN2G60 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This much is clear in the early going: the same type of anti-DC/established politician yearning that dominated the… https://t.co/RgxHm2ZWT6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Dem primary is wide open, but nowhere is that more true than the black South. Here’s why: 1) There’s no Dem from there (so far) 2) It’s got an ton of delegates 3) Of all top contenders, Biden’s support is softest/most based on name ID, and he’s dominating early polls there — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah, Dems won more House votes than Rs in Iowa in 2018, but a big part of that is named Steve King. Could a Dem win IA in 2020? Sure, but they'd have already won MI/PA/WI, which is why IA's not really close to being "decisive." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And sorry, CO/VA (exit stage left) and IA/OH (exit stage right) are no longer swing states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The five states that will decide Trump's fate in 2020: MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ. White working-class voters dominate media portrayals of the first three, but the key variable common to the first four? African-American enthusiasm/turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting juxtaposition. I agree w/ the "18-29/black turnout" majority in the second poll...which is why I'm not… https://t.co/0qRMVfhVLD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remember, when it comes down to it, the two groups who will decide Dems' 2020 nominee: 1) African-Americans 2) suburban women. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Being 1) young 2) African-American 3) female 4) not "of DC" 5) from the South would give Abrams *big* upside in a D… https://t.co/tR2JT5Wsjj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That today's NC Rs are able to draw more effective AND better-looking partisan gerrymanders than '90s NC Ds isn't a testament to tech. Rather, increased voter self-sorting since '90s has made it *much* easier to draw lopsided districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That today's NC Republicans are able to draw a more effective AND better-looking partisan gerrymanders than '90s NC Democrats isn't a testament to tech. Voters' self-sorting since '90s has made it *much* easier to draw lopsided districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This isn't to say NC's current GOP-drawn map isn't a case of extreme gerrymandering. But as a fellow redistricting geek, I think you owe it to your (understandably outraged) followers to be up front about the imagery you're using. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, the photo anchoring your tweet/article is literally of the *Dem*-drawn NC gerrymander that was in effect from 1993-1998. https://t.co/hJdkYnhMXS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Short of outright PR, that is. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A weakness in the “let’s aim for partisan proportionality in districting” argument is the idea that partisans in co… https://t.co/ReZvtNlKla — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What about NC/OH, where Rs’ gerrymanders helped them keep an enormous % of seats vs. votes? Then suppose we should… https://t.co/69X3AHWVii — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2014, Republicans won ~53% of votes and 57% of seats, but that was before new PA/VA/FL maps, and gerrymandering… https://t.co/5pmnX3Tpfy — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lesson: be *very* wary of broad pronouncements that Rs will brazenly enshrine themselves in power for a decade abse… https://t.co/MJQoRnX2Fa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The House map was so rigged against Dems in 2018 that they won ~54% of all votes cast and...54% of seats. Why? 1)… https://t.co/yXNVbJU3y7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Good thread -> https://t.co/LLJPr4QEHt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A real danger for reformers, however, is the prospect of Kavanaugh joining Roberts to strike down independent commi… https://t.co/uczsEkNF8P — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my view, anti-gerrymandering activists hoping SCOTUS will set standards to rein in hyper-partisan maps are looki… https://t.co/HO9bWVN3vg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My hunch: extreme partisan gerrymanders will be less prevalent in 2021 than 2011, whether or not SCOTUS sets limits (which I’d bet against, btw). Why? 1) new commissions in MI, CO, OH, UT, etc. 2) heightened public scrutiny 3) more divided state control = more court-drawn maps — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Trump could run on a message of good economy, "no collusion", no wars, Democrats-too-far-left. Not a guaranteed win, but… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And by putting so many of their eggs in the collusion basket, Dems have given Trump a broad avenue to claim “witch hunt!” in any number of very *real* & potential scandals: campaign finance, business dealings, personal email use, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remember: 2016 was a race between two candidates who tried their hardest to lose the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Mueller’s key finding supports what many of us who interacted with the 2016 Trump campaign suspected: it was likely too inept to successfully collude with anyone or anything. — PolitiTweet.org