Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this hypothetical remedial map, Stevens gets a safe Dem #MI11 in Oakland County and #MI12 Dingell keeps a safe Dem #MI12 in Ann Arbor/suburban Wayne Co. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The problem for Dems is: once you draw two AA-majority Detroit districts, there are four suburban Dem incumbents vying for the limited blue turf in the suburbs: #MI08 Slotkin, #MI09 Levin, #MI11 Stevens, #MI12 Dingell. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's a quick illustration of why striking down MI's GOP gerrymander might not necessarily boost House Dems. Take this pretty compact map for example 1/ https://t.co/VDocjQ3tIp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@rmenhen There would’ve been ways to combine Lansing/Flint without violating MI’s county “rule.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also worth noting that MI Republicans could have drawn an even more effective/aggressive gerrymander in 2011, like a 10-4 map that would have packed Lansing & Flint in the same district (instead of the 9-5 map that backslid to 7-7 in 2018). https://t.co/0i7bUIKITA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It would have been fairly straightforward for Republicans to draw one safe R seat in 2011 instead of two marginally R seats in the Detroit burbs. Instead they sliced the 8th & 11th pretty thin and lost both in 2018. Was it worth it? Maybe, maybe not. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It’s hard to imagine *both* of them getting worse for Dems, especially if Slotkin gets a more Lansing-centric district that drops northern Oakland/Livingston. But one of them could get tougher; there’s only so much D turf to go around. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn If, for example, Andy Levin were to get more of Oakland and Stevens were pushed north into more rural Oakland precincts, assuming Pontiac and Southfield stay in an AA majority district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: it's not clear redrawing/replacing MI's GOP gerrymander would boost Dems there in 2020. In 2018, the lines in suburban Detroit backfired on Rs & helped elect Slotkin (D) in #MI08 & Stevens (D) in #MI11. Their seats could get better, but they could also get worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kylegriffin1: LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- Federal judges say Michigan congressional, legislative districts unconstitutionally gerrymandered;… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Today's Democratic Party is pretty evenly divided, no matter how you measure it--lib/mod, old/young, white/nonwhite, col/no… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @DaviSusan: One of the biggest structural challenges for Biden is that the most experienced candidates regularly lose the presidential p… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @StolpWSOC9: NEW: @NCSBE tells @wsoctv that the first voter at early voting in Bladen County this morning was McCrae Dowless. #NC09 #ncp… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per new Census data, 12.9 million eligible women w/ degrees didn't vote in 2018. Meanwhile, *41.8 million* men without degrees stayed home. Upside: Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Overall, per Census, the college degree+ share of the electorate rose from 39.6% in '16 to 43.4% in '18 - a shift that meaningfully benefited Dems. The return of non-college voters to the electorate in '20 - specifically white men - is Trump's only path to a second term. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump approval rating in Oct. '18 NBC/WSJ poll among... Men without college degrees: 64% Women w/ college degrees: 27% 2018 turnout rate (per new Census data) among eligible... Men without college degrees: 44% Women w/ college degrees: 69% Story of the midterms. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t hold your breath. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

CNN town halls too easy for Buttigieg...let's see him take on Holzhauer on @Jeopardy — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@afvandine @mollyyeh @UChicago As a frequent presenter at sugarbeet grower meetings in the Red River Valley of MN/ND, I'd do anything for @MollyYeh's sugarbeet latke secrets — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks very much to AZ Independent Redistricting Commission Chair ⁦@ccmathis⁩ for visiting ⁦@UChiPolitics⁩ today!Our students were treated to a truly fascinating conversation on the promise & perils of redistricting reform. https://t.co/yywsZ6Vycb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t think America’s ready to elect a gay candidate? Here’s an ad that helped a Dem flip a *Trump-won* district in 2018: https://t.co/O53gBTyPSm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And that’s a testament to how rapidly public opinion in this country has changed recently. In past few years, multiple LGBT candidates have featured their families in ads just like any other candidate would & performed just as well in highly competitive races/districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my view, Buttigieg’s sexual orientation is a clear advantage in the Dem primary & probably would make little difference in a general. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For background on how she became the central figure in the biggest redistricting fracas of 2011, be sure to listen to this excellent piece of podcast journalism by @FiveThirtyEight's @GalenDruke: https://t.co/btdyS1IAqO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Excited to host Colleen Coyle Mathis, chair of the AZ Independent Redistricting Commission, at @UChiPolitics tomorrow for a discussion on the promise & perils of redistricting reform. Sign up here: https://t.co/1ikXIv8PmB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One of the best (legal) get-rich-quick schemes out there: bamboozle gullible donors into funding your hopeless “race” vs. a safe-but-controversial incumbent & enrich yourself w/ candidate stipends. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ever wonder why some candidates w/ zero chance of winning run? Here’s one answer: — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thought experiment: what if the D senators running were small/midsize city mayors instead of senators? My hunch is a few would be better off. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Potentially one of Trump's biggest reelection allies: DNC rulebook. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Not prompted by anything in particular, but I continue to think Democrats' extremely proportional delegate allocation ru… — PolitiTweet.org