Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's more, many Dems banking on Biden's electability are underestimating Trump's ability to weaponize social media/other platforms to exploit Biden's baggage & open rifts in Dem coalition over touching/busing/Anita Hill/ideology/you name it, depressing base turnout a la '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, I'd argue Biden's liabilities in a *general election* vs. Trump are more serious than a lot of Dem voters seem to think. For starters, as @NateSilver538 pointed out, check out voters' appetite for a candidate who's 75+: https://t.co/aUYm6img8Z — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden also benefits from Dem voters' *perception* that he is the most electable candidate in the field. Like, by far. For a deep dive on this, make sure to read @BaseBallot's piece from last week & check out 2nd chart down: https://t.co/XVKGwmm7nV https://t.co/tPsSu5hbHD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden also benefits from a Dem primary electorate that's older, less white & more moderate than the left-leaners dominating the convo on this & other sites. I keep coming back to this Jan. @pewresearch finding that 53% of Dems/leaners want party to move in more mod direction: https://t.co/5j3eaMuODE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

He's also got a considerable regional head start in the South, thanks to his huge early advantage with African-American voters (name ID + Obama nostalgia) & because there are no candidates from the region (unless you count TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, Biden is the best-positioned candidate in a field of record-breaking size to hit 15% thresholds virtually *everywhere,* which is a really underrated advantage when it comes to building a delegate lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beginning to think the CW that "Joe Biden would be such a great general election candidate for Dems if only he could make it past the primaries" might actually have it a bit backwards. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: This is sort of a "fun" chart if we're talking about electability. A LOT of voters have reservations about voting for so… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(continued) 11. Macomb Co.: R+1 12. Ann Arbor/Southgate: D+11 13. Detroit/Dearborn (51% AA): D+30 14. Detroit/Southfield (54% AA): D+30 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rundown of hypothetical @CookPolitical PVIs: 1. UP/Traverse City: R+10 2. Holland/Muskegon: R+8 3. Grand Rapids: R+8 4. Lansing: EVEN 5. Flint/Saginaw: D+4 6. Kalamazoo: R+4 7. Jackson/Monroe: R+7 8. Detroit exurbs: R+12 9. Oakland Co.: D+5 10. Bay City/Thumb: R+12... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alright, this is my best shot at a compact Michigan map that splits as few counties/municipalities as possible while still preserving two AA-majority districts. Mapping geeks: what's yours? https://t.co/VFn0QZd9Cx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not sure these recruitment "fails" will be as consequential as some are making them out to be, but the fact 18% of the country elects a majority of the Senate is the bigger issue here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, using raw vote margins, not %s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, using margins at the county level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, there were Dem statewide candidates who banked bigger margins in: - Madison than Milwaukee - Nashville than Memphis - Ithaca than Syracuse - Dakota Co. (Twin Cities burbs) than Duluth Wasn't typical in the past & tells you a lot about where the party is headed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to the one and only Ragin’ Cajun ⁦@JamesCarville⁩ for visiting our seminar at ⁦@UChiPolitics⁩ this week. A class our students won’t ever forget! https://t.co/8xRzfPmKWb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Had Abrams run for Senate, little reason to think outcome would be much different than '18 Gov (GA's pro-D demog change probably offset by return of casual Trump voters in '20). Plus, congrats, prize would be Senate membership that's been such an awesome nat'l launchpad lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why Stacey Abrams has more POTUS upside (imo): 1) Two dominant D groups, AAs & suburban women, still totally up for grabs 2) Still no Dem contenders from the South (30% of delegates) 3) Personal connection to major motivating issue for Ds: voting rights https://t.co/gvE26U6EYo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Trend Watch: House Rs now have Asian-American women running in 3 Orange County seats #CA48: OC Supervisor Michelle Steel… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Excited to welcome a true legend to @UChiPolitics this afternoon. Students can sign up here: https://t.co/E63fkdHvwY https://t.co/7tWlb5RSdt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to @uchicagogop for hosting me at your meeting the other night. (also looking forward to visiting @uchidemocrats in a few weeks!) https://t.co/QaCwX80pAq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@danpolovina Kind of my job — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bayofarizona Totally wrong on both counts — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Disclaimer: this isn’t an appraisal on the fairness/virtuosity of any map or a rebuttal to anything. It’s purely a political analysis of the MI situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The legislative maps, on the other hand, are another story. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sorry, new safely R #MI08 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even if everything went right for Dems in 2020 under this kind of map, they'd probably just retain the 7-7 split they earned under the R gerrymander in 2018. That in itself would qualify as a win, but not a total game-changer. /end — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short, this kind of "un-gerrymandered" remedial map could ease reelection paths for some Dems, but make life more difficult for others. And it wouldn't necessarily create new pickup opportunities for Dems. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BUT, Levin would face a choice between running vs. Stevens in a safely Dem #MI11 or running in a very competitive Macomb-centric #MI09. He'd likely run in #MI09, but given Macomb's trendline Rs could be competitive there. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this scenario, Slotkin's home in Holly (northern Oakland) would get drawn into a new safely R #MI11. She'd likely move west to run in a more Lansing-centric district that's slightly more Democratic than her current one. Arguably positive for her. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org