Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Would still rather be Beshear right now, with so much Louisville out. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks really close right now between Beshear and Adkins (slightly revising earlier tilt Beshear assessment). From a November standpoint, Dems have to like what they’re seeing from Adkins in rural KY. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks pretty good for Beshear to me so far. #KYGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: There's a long time for this to change. but for now... Fav/Unfav (among WWC, fav unfav) Biden 49/39 (37/51) Sanders 41/48 (3… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @emilymbadger: The urban-rural divide isn’t uniquely American. But we have ratcheted it up, gerrymandered it, piled all our political d… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Three best things going for Biden, atm: 1) Bernie/Warren both in, splitting the left 2) Neither Harris/Booker catching fire w/ African-Americans, esp. in the South 3) Dems' *perception* a mod/mainstream nominee = best bet vs. Trump If any of these change, Dem race will change. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@IRussell729 Correct — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A McCready loss in #NC09 on 9/10 would no doubt be a disappointment for Dems, after all the attention the district will have received. But of the 43 R seats Dems flipped last November, only three (#NY22, #OK05, #SC01) gave Trump larger margins than #NC09. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems eager to run vs. "Bathroom bill Bishop." But worth noting state Sen. Bishop (R) ran well ahead of #NC09 nominee Mark Harris (R) in 2018. Won't be easy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New #NC09 election remains in Toss Up at @CookPolitical following GOP primary. Still a tough seat for Ds to flip (Trump +12% in ‘16). Don’t forget, a big reason McCready came so close in November: Harris was a badly damaged candidate *before* the Dowless scandal broke. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Projection: new #NC09 election on 9/10 will be "Battle of the Dans." McCready (D) vs. Bishop (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hard to overstate how big a challenge this is for Buttigieg. Under primary rules, Dem candidates need >15% to win delegates in each state/district. In crowded field, this benefits Ds w/ even patterns of support. Very early, but at this rate Buttigieg risks a lot of shutouts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big thanks 🙏 to Nina Perales of @MALDEF, @AllisonJRiggs of @scsj & @Bethnotflo of @CensusCounts for 🧳✈️ to @UChiPolitics to share your top notch 🏅 wisdom on race, redistricting & the Voting Rights Act. https://t.co/Tb64NSZHpJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SteveKornacki: Buttigieg support by race in recent polling: NATIONAL Morning Consult (5/6) White: 8% Black: 1% Qpac (4/30) White 14%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Excited to welcome two outstanding attorneys, Nina Perales of @MALDEF & @AllisonJRiggs of @scsj to @UChiPolitics for a discussion about race, redistricting & the Voting Rights Act today at 3:30pm. Students can sign up here: https://t.co/ro0RRSAsld — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beaten by Rs in primaries & Dems in generals. No path for survival. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: I'm not convinced the country wants to come together. What evidence is there that progressives/liberals want anything… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@IanSams Hey Ian- I cringed too when reading this quote as it didn't come across at all as intended re: Harris/Warren. Earlier today, I expressed my concerns to John that it lacked important context from our phone call. Will try to do better moving forward. Dave — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: What's interesting with Harris is that black Democrats tend to be more moderate than white ones. (Corrolary: the left is… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Had so much fun presenting today at @HarvardCGA’s “The Geography of Redistricting.” Thanks to my fellow gerrymandering nerds for full day of engaging & informative sessions! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

SCOTUS will be final arbiter for MI, OH & others. Holds huge implications for '20 races, though worth noting major reforms already poised in MI/OH for '21 remap. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@amyewalter @mcpli Subtracting FL/NC/PA/VA would get you to 366, but there were some FL/VA districts that didn’t change (12? I think), so 378. But if MI gets replaced, could be 364? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind that Bernie is the only other candidate besides Biden currently in position to hit critical 15% thresholds in most places - but w/ a crowded field, I could see him struggling to get “on the board” in a few heavily AA districts with lots of delegates. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Good reminder re: early CW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This rationale didn't work so well for Dems in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who do I think *is* Dems' most electable 2020 candidate? Hint: she may or may not be running. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short: yes, I think Biden has a very good chance to become the Dem nominee, perhaps even after a floor fight in Milwaukee. But no, at the moment I don't consider him Dems' most electable candidate vs. Trump in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After all, Dems' underperformance in MI/PA/WI/FL/NC in '16 wasn't just about working-class whites. It was also about Clinton's failure to mobilize the Obama coalition at '08/'12 turnout rates, particularly young & African-American voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, Biden will win just about all the suburban Rs Trump has alienated & converted to Indies/Ds in the last few years. Just about any 2020 Dem would. But ask yourself: will young voters, particularly those of color, be jazzed enough about Biden to bring 3 friends along to polls? — PolitiTweet.org