Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A jarring aspect of ‘20 for me: dozens of seriously impressive women (many w/ natsec backgrounds & inspiring bios) ran for House as political outsiders & crushed it in ‘18. The profile has proven appeal. But the female outsider on the prez debate stage is...Marianne Williamson. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticoScott: The battle over gerrymandering isn't over after today's SCOTUS ruling. It's just moving to a different venue https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My position is pretty simple: maps should probably be drawn without any regard at all to partisanship/incumbency. CA's citizen commission often gets a bad rap but is a decent model for other states to adopt, imho. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The three example gerrymanders in this video are/were VRA districts, and Dems have had recent success suing to overturn GOP maps on racial gerrymandering grounds (which isn't what this SCOTUS decision was about). But hey, doomsday. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One effect of this, though, is that Republicans can often draw gerrymanders that *look* cleaner because all they have to do is draw fences around blue cities (whereas Dems generally need to pinwheel cities to achieve a similar result). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is right -> — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @greggiroux: The U.S. Supreme Court issues a mixed decision on the Trump administration’s bid to add a citizenship question to the 2020… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, Republicans may look at what happened in '18 and decide they need to draw a few new additional "vote sinks" in places that have experienced heavy Dem vote growth, such as Austin, TX or northern Atlanta. i.e., "packing" rather than "cracking." We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My read: we're likely to see a decline in "extreme" partisan gerrymandering at the cong level in 2021 w/o much court intervention. Why? 1) New commission regimes in states like CO, MI, OH, UT, possibly VA 2) Dems winning more govs in '18, stalemates pushing more maps to courts — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As I kind of expected, the 5-4 majority takes easy way out by saying states/Congress can still combat partisan gerrymandering if they want to. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @marceelias: BREAKING: Supreme holds that partisan gerrymandering claims present political questions beyond the reach of the federal cou… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: SCOTUS rules maps can’t be challenged for being partisan gerrymanders in federal courts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not likely. But most of the big demographic shifts boosting Dems in TX - surge of voting eligible Latinx/Asians, influx of professional whites - just aren’t that present in MI/WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To reinforce something I just said on @smerconish: the key to Trump losing popular vote by ~5 million and still winning EC would be Texas. Dems could cut into Trump’s 2016 margin there by 800k votes and still not gain a single EC vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Valid -> https://t.co/4p0H9YCrQO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I spent an awful lot of time w/ students who were born in a year starting in “2.” For the most part, there was just no pulse when it came to Biden. But many on left actively dislike: “Might vote for him if I really had to but I wouldn’t work for him.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let’s just put it this way: after spending the last few months on a college campus, I don’t think “campus outreach director” on the Biden campaign would be an easy or enviable job. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*were — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If @AOC we’re eligible to run in 2020, who would have a better chance of defeating Trump? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When it comes to getting elected in America these days, there’s only one thing worse than being a walking personal scandal: having a lengthy DC/political track record for your opponent to pick apart. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump’s general election playbook vs. Biden isn’t that hard to guess: weaponize social media to suppress the anti-Trump vote (esp. young/non-white) using Anita Hill, touching, busing, segregationists, etc. It was a pretty effective strategy in ‘16. Biden just as vulnerable. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Elizabeth Warren is on the move. How will we know if she's able to sustain the momentum? 1) has a big 2nd Q report (to make… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, if this were the actual vote breakdown in the FL primary, Biden would win nearly all of the state’s delegates w/ 41% of the vote. https://t.co/tOQQhW0Fvb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If every Dem primary/caucus were held today, Biden would win nowhere near 50% of the vote nationally but he’d easily win a majority of DNC delegates b/c few others would consistently hit 15% thresholds. This is likely to change, but for now it’s a big advantage for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another scenario: it’s mid-Nov. 2020 & the entire race hinges on an AZ cliffhanger. After weeks of counting, the D nominee pulls ahead at the end. Trump gracefully concedes, thanking AZ officials for conducting a fair, fraud-free count. Wait, one of these things is not plausible — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(This isn’t to throw shade at the DNC’s choice of Milwaukee. It’s a great choice. It’s just not really a valid reason for Dems to pin their hopes of winning back WI.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Milwaukee 2020: because Philly 2016 clinched Pennsylvania...oh wait — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's more or less what this nightmare scenario for Dems looks like in the @FiveThirtyEight Swing-o-Matic (replace Clinton's name w/ whatever Dem you wish): https://t.co/vYhzaL4bWs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why does Trump have a better chance of holding Wisconsin than MI or PA in 2020? Here you go... Non-college whites vs. African-Americans as % of electorate (rough estimate): PA: 50% / 10% MI: 53% / 13% WI: 57% / 6% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A couple more thoughts on this: 1) Of the states above, AZ & WI strike me as the likeliest to be decisive “tipping point” states 2) FL is trending poorly for Dems & AZ/NC likely to be riper targets 3) If it comes down to one vote, Omaha’s #NE02 more winnable for Dems than #ME02 — PolitiTweet.org