Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yep...good times (from 9/17): https://t.co/jogIaavlAi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Take Collins, whose state is actually open to voting for Ds (unlike KY). Her disapproval among Rs is 34%, but who are they? Likely Trump fans who will never vote for a D. Her approval among Ds? 27% - much lower than it used to be, but still maybe enough to win a close state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems salivating over McConnell and Collins’s high unpopularity should probably ask (before taking a victory lap): what % of their disapprovers are conservative/pro-Trump Rs who would never, ever vote for a Dem? I’m willing to bet...a lot. https://t.co/kZi3FEDhgO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @danpfeiffer @jonfavs @mattyglesias @blfraga fwiw I’m not aware of state-level polling the campaign conducted that would have boosted their comfort level in those places (altho there was plenty floating around elsewhere) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @danpfeiffer @jonfavs @mattyglesias @blfraga My impression was that they were pretty aware of the weakness w/ that demog, but it didn’t seem to translate into much sense of urgency about PA (and certainly not MI/WI). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Flip side: Republicans represent 83% of the 100 districts with the highest shares of native-born residents & have strong opportunities in 4/17 Dem-held seats, so the GOP share could go up to 87% soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only Rs who represent districts in the top 100: #FL25 Diaz-Balart, #GA07 Woodall, #TX22 Olson, #TX24 Marchant, #TX02 Crenshaw. Dems have strong opportunities in 3/5 in 2020 so the Dem share could plausibly go up to 98% soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Context: #TX22 Olson represents more foreign-born constituents than all but one other Republican in the House - #FL25 Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: Democrats represent 54% of all House districts but 95% (!) of the 100 districts with the highest shares of foreign-born residents. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Historic turnout in 2020 might not work out as well for Democrats as many seem to assume https://t.co/5NBijrJXVi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who’s left? A mix of true Trump enthusiasts & members who know speaking out against the POTUS in public amounts to a political death sentence in their next primary. The reality: this vicious cycle means there isn’t any going back and likely no such thing as too far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Where are the congressional Rs who would speak out to hold POTUS accountable for his comments? They’ve lost to Dems, retired or been driven out of the party. Gone. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @FrankLuntz: Voter turnout + political lean of U.S. states in presidential elections, 1980-2016: https://t.co/7nSbHSIr1c https://t.co/wu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So generally, it doesn't matter how great a challenger or how awful an incumbent is running in a place that's hugely lopsided (unless we're talking Roy Moore-level pedophile-type baggage). Voters are going to vote against whichever party they view as their enemy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sometimes people forget how narrow a "trading range" of competitive elections exists today. Only one Dem, Collin Peterson, represents a seat where Trump took more than 55% (Trump took 61% in #MN07), and he only held on w/ 52% against a nobody in a terrific Dem year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2018, no Republican won a House seat where Trump took less than 45% of the vote, and no Democrat flipped a House seat where Trump took more than 55% of the vote. We live in an era of extremely high straight-ticket voting & polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: Twitter this week: Cory Gardner is toast. How can he win in that (D+1) state? Also Twitter this week: Amy McGrath's race… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beautifully reported and written by @TimAlberta. https://t.co/dMBmaWPuw0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of the 20 new House Ds who replaced other Ds in '18, 14 joined Progressive Caucus (incl. AOC/Tlaib/Omar/Pressley) & 9 are New Dems/Blue Dogs (a few are both). But of the 42 new Ds who flipped R seats - i.e. the majority makers - 33 are New Dems/Blue Dogs, just 8 Progressives. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Literally the only other KY district Dems would have any remote chance of flipping is the Lexington one McGrath lost in the best imaginable year for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I said "appealing," Harry... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@weber_daron I said "appealing" — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alabama voted for Trump by 27.7%, the R nominee was an alleged pedophile, Trump wasn't on the ballot and the Dem still only won by 1.7%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But you know what *is* winnable for Dems in 2020 w/ the right kind of candidate - especially a woman w/ an appealing personal story and zero ties to an unpopular Congress? A country that voted for Clinton by 2.1%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Folks, there is just no amount of $$$ that is going to elect a Dem to federal office next fall in in a place that voted for Trump by 30%.* *except maybe Collin Peterson in #MN07 but that’s about it — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nationally, Dem voters/donors love McGrath’s profile (and those of many other ‘18 women whose personal stories dwarf those of the ‘20 prez candidates). Kentucky voters as a whole...not so much. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jonathanchait District: Trump +15% State: Trump +30% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Having covered her impressive ‘18 performance in a red district, I mean this in all seriousness: Amy McGrath would actually have a better chance at the presidency in ‘20 than #KYSEN. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reality check: Amy McGrath ran for House in 2018 (a terrific Dem year) and lost by 3% in #KY06, which went for Trump by 15% in 2016. Now she’s running w/ basically the same message in a state that went for Trump by *30%.* Folks... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: Rep. Justin Amash's departure from the GOP moves #MI03 from Solid Republican to Toss Up. Still many unknowns in the race. — PolitiTweet.org