Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The 2020 Democratic nominee will have a better chance of winning: — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Three of the five House Rs who represent districts in the top 100 for foreign-born share of the population are now retiring in 2020 (Woodall, Olson, Marchant). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now official: Marchant becomes the fourth Texas GOP member (and third from a majority non-white district) to announce retirement in the past two weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, six GOP House incumbents from TX won their races by less than 5%. Three of them (Olson, Hurd and Marchant) are retiring so far and I’d be really surprised if they’re the last. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've had #TX24 in Toss Up since the beginning of the cycle at @CookPolitical, and it remains a top Dem pickup opportunity after Marchant's retirement. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Texodus continues. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Dem nominee do about as well in TX as FL - a big change from the past. That said, both still very likely to the right of the 2020 EC tipping point. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: an underrated segment of the Dem primary electorate is moderate suburbanites whom Trump/others have effectively converted from Rs to Ds. These people turn out, and are *not* Warren/Sanders voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Becoming more convinced Biden's lead is more attributable to Dems who find other, more liberal candidates unappealing/risky vs. Trump/inauthentic than Dems who are genuinely enthusiastic about him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trifecta driving ongoing GOP House exodus: 1) Being in the minority can suck, esp. w/ committee term limits 2) Hyper-partisan, investigation-driven Hill atmosphere 3) Dealing w/ POTUS many in House GOP still privately say is unfit for office — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @geoffreyvs: Everyone does remember that Trump won Texas by 9 percentage points, right? NINE. Flipping Arizona, at Trump +3.5 in 2016, I… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JeremySWallace: Talk about living on the edge. U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-TX, never won 50% of the vote in a general election, yet still wo… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@chrislhayes Sounds intriguing. Are we all invited to the freak-out? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TX Rs could easily solve their problems in 5-6 of their current districts by drawing safe new Dem seats in Austin & South Texas and packing Dems into the Houston (#TX07) & Dallas (#TX32) seats Dems picked up in 2018 (fwiw, I don't see Dems taking back the TX House in 2020). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another thing to keep in mind: Republicans will likely get (one last?) chance to re-gerrymander TX's congressional seats in 2021, and while pickups in 2020 could help Dems hold the House, a few could be reversed in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In terms of House seats, maybe. But Dems could cut into Trump's 2016 margin by 800k votes (8%) and still fall short. "Freak out" is probably a bit much at the statewide level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reps. John Katko in #NY24 and Brian Fitzpatrick in #PA01. But it's shocking how few remaining House Rs have any political incentive whatsoever to criticize Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CookPolitical Hurd is one of just 3 remaining House Rs in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the House's only black Republican, and is now the sixth Republican - and the third from TX - to announce retirement plans in the past ten days. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CookPolitical Texodus? After Olson & Hurd, attention shifts to GOP Reps. Mike McCaul in #TX10, Kenny Marchant in #TX24, John Carter in #TX31, who also won by skin of their teeth in 2018. This could get out of hand for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Huge news for Dems: Rep. Will Hurd (R) to retire in 2020. He's probably the only R capable of holding the seat. #TX23 moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @UglyGerry: It's here. GERRY. A font created by your congressional districts. Log on to https://t.co/WkuVp7oDpu and use the font to tell… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Whatever you think of it, it is really incredible that the Democratic debates have devoted so much oxygen to fairly unpopul… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Programming note: Yangust will be followed by SethTomber, Betober and Klovember. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After the Butti-Boom of March and the Warren Swoon of June, August is starting to feel like a good month for “Williamson, why the f*** not” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One thing I’m watching in these debates: how much time candidates spend talking about actual voters vs. themselves. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You’re not a real political junkie until you order @The_Almanac 2020 - get yours now!! https://t.co/bNrHHe09nn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The same applies for Dems in 2020: just as Pence provided Trump-skeptical Rs a rationale to vote against Clinton, the 2020 Dem nominee may need to balance his/her ticket to provide primary-alienated Dems more of a rationale to vote against Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's choice of Pence for VP was extremely awkward at the time (and still is, in a lot of ways). But it provided critical reassurance to a big group of GOP voters who were skeptical of Trump in the primaries: religious/social conservatives. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

None of this means Dems can't win the White House in 2020 (see Trump, 2016), but it makes the task of defeating a really unpopular president a lot harder than it should be. It also makes the eventual Dem nominee's choice of a running mate pretty damn important. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

These debates make pretty clear the D nominee will be someone who either: 1) holds positions unpopular w/ the broader electorate, e.g. on border crossings, private insurance, reparations 2) is resented by a substantial share of progressive activists for opposing these proposals — PolitiTweet.org