Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @geoffreyvs: Let’s see how many ways candidates can divide like 15% of the national primary vote. https://t.co/lKDqldp1HZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You know which forecasters I *do* take seriously? People who spend more time researching & analyzing elections (and letting their work speak for itself) than engaging in relentless self-promotion & glorification in other people’s reply sections. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SenhorRaposa @alecbwhite @aedwardslevy @JessicaTaylor @databyler @TexasTribAbby @leahaskarinam @julia_azari @ClareMalone @MadelainePisani Sadly I didn’t get an invite to the recent @JMilesColeman @rudnicknoah @SenhorRaposa DC hangout so he’s off the list. Actually should have left Miles off too b/c of this snub — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More awesome journalists/analysts I didn’t have space to fit in the first tweet: @nathanlgonzales, @baseballot, @geoffreyvs, @ellawinthrop, @juruwolfe, @allymutnick, @MadelainePisani, @JMilesColeman. And so many more I’ll add to this list soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More awesome journalists/analysts I didn’t have space to fit in the first tweet: @nathanlgonzales, @baseballot, @geoffreyvs, @ellawinthrop, @juruwolfe, @JMilesColeman. And so many more I’ll add to this list soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are dozens of talented, smart and objective election/polling analysts who don’t get nearly enough attention. If you’re not following @aedwardslevy, @JessicaTaylor, @databyler, @TexasTribAbby, @leahaskarinam, @julia_azari, @ClareMalone, you’re doing 2020 wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@cspanwj Feeling grateful for the life of my grandfather, Robert Lautzenheiser, who passed away this afternoon at the age of 103 (he cast his first vote in 1936!). For decades, he was MA's state climatologist and inspired my love of data. Rest in peace & thanks again to @CspanMcArdle. https://t.co/WZTgso52JH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: There's been a whole lot of attention to what a recession would mean for Trump in 2020, but first, what would it mean for t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, there were 3 races everyone in this chart got "wrong:" #CA21, #OK05, #SC01. I also missed #NY11 and #NY22. But careful evaluation, and a little luck, allowed us to call 430/435 races right (pending #NC09). I'd take 430/435 any cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

From Election Day afternoon, 2018 (judge for yourselves): — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@FiveThirtyEight Our final 2018 House outlook at @CookPolitical was Dems +30 to +40. We believe a blend of quantitative and qualitative (such as personally interviewing candidates) evaluation is the best approach to forecasting elections, and it worked out well in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The outlet that really "nailed" 2018? @FiveThirtyEight, which had Dems +39 by Election Day (one seat off actual) and built an extremely detailed, transparent & intellectually honest race-by-race model. Hats off to them (and they deserve more credit for '16, too). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

+1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, @PaulHRosenberg's math is wrong. In July 2018, @CookPolitical rated 31 GOP seats as Toss Up or worse - more than enough to tip the House to Dems (he seems to leave out the 9 GOP seats we rated as Lean/Likely D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You know which forecasters I don't take seriously? People who tell you their secret "model" can predict the outcome of the 2020 election (even down to the EC count), before we know trivial details like, say, the identity of the Dem nominee or the state of the economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Salon @CookPolitical @NBCNews By July '18, we were calling Dems strong favorites in the House and virtually every nonpartisan forecaster I respect (@NateSilver538, @Nate_Cohn, @kkondik, @LarrySabato, @nathanlgonzales) also saw a "Blue Wave" coming. https://t.co/2c3WhdfXOY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Salon @CookPolitical Here's my piece for @NBCNews and @CookPolitical from 12/29/17: https://t.co/QdR7VLRNrn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The first line of this @Salon piece is laughable - @CookPolitical wrote back in Dec. '17 that Dems were the favorites to take back the House and by July '18 we called them "substantial favorites." Come on. https://t.co/wApXA8L0Zl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks so much to @CspanWJ for graciously allowing me to pay tribute to my grandfather, Robert Lautzenheiser (103 and in hospice care), who gave me my passion for data. https://t.co/naY032DSlV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My dream as a kid: talking House races on @cspanwj. ✅ My dream as an adult: surviving @cspanwj open phones. 🤷‍♂️☎️ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be fair, the river was infested with very large crocodiles. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I did, however, spend several hours watching a herd of 1,000+ zebras struggle to decide whether to cross a river and couldn’t help but think of the Dem presidential field. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just got back from a 10 day vacation on another continent and it feels like a miracle: don’t think I missed any House GOP retirements. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) Holy Altoona that’s a college-heavy sample 2) I don’t think Trump needs to win PA to get to 270 this time. He would’ve won the EC without it in ‘16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*I'm defining "major metro areas" as counties belonging to the nation's 100 most populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the Census. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why are TX & AZ the future for Democrats? They're urban. Here's how they stack up vs. a few others in terms of % of statewide votes cast in major metro areas: AZ: 81% TX: 72% PA: 64% MN: 63% MI: 54% NC: 54% WI: 52% IA: 25% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hot off the press: our latest 2020 House overview, featuring analysis of the 56 most competitive races in the country, is now available to @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's how rapidly Dems have consolidated strength in high-density cities/suburbs & backsliding in small town/rural: In 2007, Dems held 233/435 House seats, totaling 32% of the nation's land area. In 2019, Dems hold 235/435 House seats, totaling 20% of the nation's land area. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We aren’t too many election cycles away from Texas and Arizona voting bluer than Michigan and Wisconsin, for two reasons: TX/AZ’s electorates are 1) more urban/suburban 2) much less white. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is accurate. I'm just not sure "quickly" = a 9 point shift between '16 and '20, given that Trump's relative unpopularity in urban/suburban TX was already priced into the '16 result (Trump +8.99%). — PolitiTweet.org