Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's also the present. And it's in large part the result of the heightened geographic concentration of the Dem vote vs. past eras (i.e. Whitmer '18 doubling Granholm's '02 margin but winning 37% fewer counties), which has supercharged the effectiveness of GOP gerrymanders. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Important special election context: There are only 4 Dem-held House seats that Trump carried by a larger margin than #NC09… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @galendruke: SCOTUS ruled in June that it will not wade into the issue of partisan gerrymandering. Now the legal battle has moved to th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CookPolitical In an era of sky-high straight-ticket voting, it's an astonishing political feat that Peterson, a Blue Dog original, has hung on this long (Trump won #MN07 by 30%). @CookPolitical subscribers first read about Michelle Fischbach (R)'s likely bid in our early Aug. House Overview. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: House Ag Committee Chair Collin Peterson (D), who has defied political gravity in a rural R+12 district since 1990, just got a serious GOP challenger. We're moving #MN07 from Lean Democratic to Toss Up. https://t.co/HEnv1QWFrz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @AshleyKirzinger: NEW ANALYSIS: With @CookPolitical finds that while a large share of voters are already firm about how they plan to vot… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CharlieCookDC: Cook Political Report collaborated with Kaiser Family Foundation to take a close look at 2020 swing voters. Report & qu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @GrantrGregory: Here's population growth rates by state from 2010 to 2018. Texas has grown by 14% (!) which is a total of 3.6 million (!… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @galendruke: Couple things this Times editorial board piece left out about the NC gerrymandering case: 1) NC's constitution itself has… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes!! It's all coming back to me now... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When's the last time three House members have announced retirements in one day? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: #CA53 Rep. Susan Davis (D), 75, to retire in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Exactly. Important to remember a 3-4% Dem national lead could easily be consistent w/ a narrow Trump reelection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Texodus: so far, 22% of TX’s Republicans are retiring in 2020. If that % were to eventually apply nationally, there would be 43 House GOP open seats, surpassing 2018’s historic number. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @leahaskarinam: No doubt that some of the Texas Republicans who retired will be avoiding competitive 2020 races. But also Texas has an e… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: #TX17 Rep. Bill Flores (R) becomes fifth TX Republican to retire in 2020. Solid R seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the off-year theatrics of this zillion-way field, odds 2020 could settle into a protracted two-way primary between Biden & Warren? Looking decent atm (but still so much time to go). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As with PA's cong map in '18, 1) these are R-drawn districts 2) Ds control state Supreme Court, 3) partisan gerrymander struck down under state, not federal constitution. But whereas PA's redraw clearly considered partisan fairness, NC's mandated to be partisan-blind. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) The need for VRA-compliant districts & NC's political geography make it possible Rs could win legislative majorities w/ fewer votes, even on "neutral" maps. 2) How can partisan legislators prove they didn't consider partisan/voting data when drawing a map? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC court orders GOP legislature to redraw gerrymandered legislative districts in two weeks. This time, they're *prohibited* from using partisan data to draw new maps. But there are several reasons to be cautious here... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC’s an interesting case: its two major metros (Charlotte and Raleigh) = just 34% of statewide vote, in part because Census considers Durham/Chapel Hill separate + so many mid-size metros (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Fayetteville, Wilmington, Hickory, Asheville etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By this metric, Arizona (81%), Texas (67%) and Georgia (58%) now feature much more metropolitan electorates than Michigan (54%), Pennsylvania (54%), Ohio (51%) or Wisconsin (32%). If you don’t consider AZ just as pivotal a 2020 state as WI, you’re missing what’s going on. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@cspanwj @cspanMcArdle Thanks to @BryanMarquard of the @BostonGlobe for this excellent writeup on my grandfather's life & his meticulous ways with data. https://t.co/9GPkX0kNKl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are only 12 Electoral College prizes where major metro areas (1+ million residents) cast more than two thirds of the statewide/total vote: DC: 100% RI: 100% MD: 89% NJ: 89% AZ: 81% CA: 78% NY: 74% MA: 72% IL: 72% VA: 71% NV: 69% TX: 67% Guess which two stand out? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why should AZ be at the top of any 2020 discussion (along with MI/PA/WI)? It both starts out close (Trump +3.5) AND strong signs it’s moving towards Dems pretty fast. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here’s the NC/GA/TX conundrum for Dems: TX is probably moving towards them the fastest but starts out the furthest away (Trump +9). NC is there probably moving towards them the slowest but was the closest (Trump +3.7). GA probably in the middle on both counts (Trump +5.1). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I’d argue Dems probably have a slightly better shot at winning Arizona or NE-02 (Omaha) than they have of winning Florida. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, talking about ME, MN, NV, NH (all Clinton +3 or less) makes sense. But the discussion of New Mexico (Clinton +8) and Oregon (Clinton +11) as Trump targets continues to be ridiculous. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Make it six: AZ & NC belong here too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This R+21 seat is the most Republican in Illinois, so @CookPolitical will be keeping #IL15 in Solid R. — PolitiTweet.org