Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in #NC09: Bishop (R) leading Union Co. early vote 56%-44%, down from Harris (R)'s 59%-41% last November. But it's too early to say that's a terrific sign for McCready (D) b/c the early vote turnout there is down 47% vs. 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First #NC09 results: glancing at Union Co., Bishop (R) leads early vote there by much smaller margin than Harris (R) did last November - but turnout is way lower, so hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

CNN reporting Greg Murphy (R) up by 5% over Allen Thomas (D) in Dare Co. w/ 63% reporting there. That's consistent w/ a strong Dem overperformance in #NC03 tho probably short of an upset. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @RRHElections: We would have thought that he would have voted absentee. https://t.co/aV5sxAs0uB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Take a deep breath, we won't be getting any results for another 10 minutes. And, we should expect that the first results (early vote) will be very favorable for Dems. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My estimates of what McCready (D) needs in each county to win #NC09 tonight (not that it took rocket science to calculate after '18): Anson: 58% Bladen: 42% Cumberland: 52% Mecklenburg: 54% Richmond: 50% Robeson: 56% Scotland: 56% Union: 39% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The fact #NC09 is even close makes pretty clear: Trump's appeal w/ his base isn't all that transferable to down-ballot R politicians when he's not on the ballot himself. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hyde: 54% Jones: 53% Lenoir: 60% Onslow: 42% Pamlico: 48% Pasquotank: 62% Perquimans: 47% Pitt: 53% Tyrrell: 54% 2/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here are my estimates of what Thomas (D) would need in each county to pull off a massive upset in #NC03: Beaufort: 49% Camden: 36% Carteret: 37% Chowan: 54% Craven: 50% Currituck: 33% Dare: 49% Greene: 57% 1/2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting fact: #NC03 is one of just three districts nationally where Dems didn't even field a nominee in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the attention on #NC09, I'm just as curious about the margin in #NC03, an R+12 seat where Allen Thomas (D) has raised a not-insignificant $564k and Greg Murphy (R) has run a quiet general election campaign following a contentious primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.s. remember Rick Saccone? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One GOP excuse for a #NC09 loss that might hold some water: Trump’s appeal among his base hasn’t proven all that transferable to down-ballot R politicians, and R base turnout will be much higher in ‘20 when Trump’s back on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One excuse for a GOP loss in #NC09 tonight that wouldn’t really hold water is the absentee ballot fraud scandal. It’s the reason for the do-over, but it hasn’t really been a focus of the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My read on this #NC09 EV data: 1) Turnout in #NC09 do-over on track to be much lower than in 2016/2018 2) Nothing in here to suggest that McCready (D) has any better chance of winning than in Nov. 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For Dems, even a 0-5% loss in #NC09 would be a sign they're still overperforming 2016 by a margin consistent w/ keeping the House majority in 2020. The higher the turnout, the more impressive a strong Dem showing would be. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why the #NC09 stakes are sky-high for Rs: If they can't win a district Trump won by 12%, how can they convince their members - many of whom are on the fence about running again in '20 - that they can win back the House? Only 168/435 districts gave Trump a bigger '16 margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @amyewalter has noted, Dems only hold two House seats where Trump took a higher % of the vote: #MN07 Collin Peterson (D) - 61% Trump #NY22 Anthony Brindisi (D) - 54% Trump Conor Lamb (D) won a 2018 special election in 58% Trump #PA18, though his new CD is only 49% Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why I'd consider a McCready (D) victory in #NC09 tonight a big upset: 1) Trump won #NC09 by 12% in 2016 2) Even in the "Blue Wave" of 2018, Dems only picked up one seat where Trump took a higher %: #NY22 3) Bishop (R) represents a part of #NC09 where McCready needs a good margin — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is it really possible the #NC09 election will end today? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, it's my observation that the vast majority of election administrators at state/county/city levels (an invaluable and often thankless role) draw precinct boundaries in a fair & neutral manner. There are, of course, rare & troubling exceptions. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SenhorRaposa Don’t see how changes to precinct boundaries would be a significant source of bias here. And I’m counting %s of votes cast, not %s of precincts, so not *that* different from population in places like MI/PA/WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BrianStryker @GrantrGregory i'm not counting the number of precincts, i'm counting the number of votes. precinct size just isn't a significant source of bias in this analysis. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mel_bough Would Dems have a dramatically better chance to retake #NCGA majorities *in a wave* under such a remedial plan? Absolutely. But probably not in an ordinary year, in part b/c of the state's basic political geography. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In Prof. Jowei Chen's expert report (h/t @mel_bough, https://t.co/nqoXx8ThSs p. 15), 1,000+ simulated NC maps "following only non-partisan redistricting criteria" produced: ~46 D-leaning House seats (vs. 42/120 in current GOP plan) ~20 D-leaning Senate seats (vs. 18/50 GOP plan) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In NC, where Trump won by 3.7% in 2016, 58.4% of all voters cast ballots in Trump-won precincts - which is partly why even a partisan-blind remedial map (which the NC judges mandated last week) would probably still result in Dems being underdogs for state legislative majorities. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, this geographic disparity was just about as wide (and as big a penalty for Dems) in 2012, when Obama won the popular vote by 3.9% and 51.3% of all voters cast ballots in precincts that voted for Romney. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Or take Wisconsin, where Trump won by just 0.8% but 59.3% of all voters cast ballots in Trump-won precincts. Or Pennsylvania, where Trump won by just 0.7% but 58.0% of all voters cast ballots in Trump-won precincts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This disparity is even more extreme in states like Michigan, where Trump won by 0.2% in 2016 but 61.0% of all voters cast ballots in precincts that voted for Trump. It's just a huge problem for Ds when it comes to winning legislative power. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: even though Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, 52.5% of all U.S. voters cast ballots in precincts that voted for Trump - which helps explain why it's easier for Rs to draw effective gerrymanders than Ds. — PolitiTweet.org