Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Projection: Dan Bishop (R) defeats Dan McCready (D) in #NC09. GOP hold. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ok, I didn't want to call you out @JohnKingCNN, but you're pronouncing Robeson Co. wrong. #nailsonachalkboard #youredoingamazingotherwise #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Bishop (R) pulls this race out (as looks likely), the irony is that it's these rural/ancestrally Dem counties that will have made the difference, rather than his own state senate district in the Charlotte burbs. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's no other way to say it: McCready (D) has turned in a terrible performance in low-income Robeson Co., where registered Ds outnumber Rs 60%-13% (not a typo) but Trump *won* in 2016. McCready (D) won Robeson by 15.3% in 2018, but he's only ahead by *3.1%* w/ 92% reporting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Really hard to see a path to a McCready (D) victory right now. On track to fall short by 1-2% at the moment. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in #NC09: Union Co. now fully reporting & Bishop (R) wins it by 20.6%. Harris (R) won it by 20.0% in 2018. Another positive sign for Bishop. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, 2019 turnout in rural #NC09 completed counties at 61%-69% of 2018 levels. One possible lifeline for McCready (D) is if it ends up higher than that in Mecklenburg, but hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in #NC09: all of Richmond Co. is in (rural Dem area). McCready (D) won it by 2.5% in 2018 but has *lost* it by 4.8% tonight. Again, he better hope Mecklenburg delivers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in #NC09: Anson Co. is fully reported. McCready (D) wins it by 14.1%, down from 16.6% in 2018. This is the kind of rural underperformance he can only make up in Mecklenburg (Charlotte burbs)... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Story of #NC09 right now: McCready has a Robeson Co. problem. Does he have a Mecklenburg Co. solution?? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lesson from every special election in the past few years: you can't lose $$ betting on a widening urban/rural divide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, Greg Murphy (R) is winning #NC03 by 22% right now, not far off Trump's 24% margin in the district from 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally some decent news for McCready (D): he appears to be *slightly* outperforming his 2018 %s in Mecklenburg completed precincts, tho he's underperforming them in other counties (especially Robeson). #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: Bishop (R) takes #NC09 lead by 535 votes overall w/ 42/52 Union Co. precincts now reporting. Remaining Mecklenburg E-Day the biggest outstanding puzzle piece. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NC09 state of play: McCready (D) ahead by 380 votes overall, but Bishop (R) hitting his E-Day vote targets so far and keep in mind, the Mecklenburg Co. portion of #NC09 is Bishop's political base. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Robeson Co. (which a certain cable network keeps pronouncing wrong): McCready (D) lead down to 9.8% with 15/39 E-Day precincts reporting. He won county by 15.3% in 2018. It's likely the remaining precincts include Lumbee/African-American areas, but needs to do better there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McCready (D)'s overall #NC09 lead now down under 2,000 votes and shrinking. Big question is Mecklenburg E-Day votes, but so far Bishop (R) is hitting most of his targets elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Union Co. watch: Bishop (R) now up to 58.9% w/ 29/52 precincts counted. He ultimately needs to be at around 61% there...on his current trajectory he's a good bet to get there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tight, but if you forced me to choose I'd probably rather be Bishop (R) right now. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Note to TV folks: it's pronounced "Rob-uh-sin" not "Robe-a-sin" county. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bishop (R) now up to 57.9% in Union Co. w/ 23/52 precincts counted. Once again, #NC09 headed for a photo finish. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remember, Bishop (R) probably needs ~61% in Union Co. to win #NC09. Right now he's at 56.5% w/ 16/52 precincts reporting, but that'll go up as Election Day vote is counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting: in #NC03, 91% reporting in Pitt Co. and Murphy (R) is actually overperforming Trump's numbers there, though he's underperforming them considerably everywhere else. It's both candidates' backyard. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NC09 story is roughly same across board: McCready (D) overperforming his '18 shares in the early vote, but the early vote is a smaller component of the overall vote than it was in '18. Those two things probably balance out. Translation: still anyone's ballgame. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the first fully reported #NC09 county, Scotland, turnout is about at 61% of 2018 levels. Dems hoping that turnout much more robust than that in Mecklenburg. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks like a reporting error on NYT site that has McCready (D) up big in Union Co., which is sure to go big for Bishop (R). Should be fixed shortly but topline misleading. #NC09 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Scotland County is complete. McCready won it by 12.9, down from 13.7 in the general. Consistent with another close race, th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Projection: Greg Murphy (R) defeats Allen Thomas (D) in #NC03, though final margin still TBD. Republican hold. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking #NC09: Mecklenburg early vote now in, McCready (D) wins it 60%-40%. He won it 57%-42% in 2018. On surface, a good sign for him but again, EV is way down vs. 2018 and still plenty of room for Bishop (R) to make it up in Election Day vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NC03: it's looking good for a Murphy (R) win, but worth noting turnout in the completed coastal counties (Currituck & Dare, both heavily GOP) is at only 25%-30% of 2016 levels. — PolitiTweet.org