Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So why are Dems suing to invalidate a new map that converts a 10R-3D map to an 8R-5D map? Because they have nothing to lose: a map drawn by a special court-appointed master would only get even better for them vs. the remedial map just drawn by the GOP-led #NCGA. https://t.co/YJsjtSPOZW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big: the new map the #NCGA just passed is an insurance policy for Dems' House majority. It effectively gifts Dems two additional seats in 2020 (#NC02 & #NC06). And, a pending Dem lawsuit against it could put one *more* seat in play, giving Dems/Pelosi even more insurance. https://t.co/S27r3L7g0s — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: North Carolina Republicans passed a new House map with an 8R, 5D breakdown that sacrifices George Holding & Mark Walk… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new map NC Rs just passed is a pretty firm 8R-5D plan (Dems +2 vs. current), but the map clearly takes liberties to advantage Rs in the southeastern part of NC, so it’s anyone’s guess whether it’ll pass state courts’ muster. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who advised him that touting your $36 billion empire on loop is a winning formula w/ today’s Dem electorate? https://t.co/j7yZQBobXo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who advised him that touting your $36 billion empire on loop this is a winning formula w/ today’s Dem electorate? https://t.co/0HkdjRkoBs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D) moves from Lean D to Toss Up at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two House rating changes for Dem freshmen at @CookPolitical this morning in part bolstered by 2019 election results... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Probably not anything new to my followers, but if you listen to one data/politics podcast all year this should be it. https://t.co/QU7lxcS55B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @TwentyOneCity: Likely new districts post-2022. Get used to these names: OR-06 MT-01 MT-02 AZ-10 CO-08 TX-37 TX-38 TX-39 FL-28 FL-29 NC… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@geholzberg @CTIronman @EJSbrocco Actually, NC A&T would be whole in #NC13 under this scenario. https://t.co/hTik3QTWGw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mtdukes: Explore @NCCapitol's full findings from our examination of the state's new US House district proposals here. 20 maps, all in… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It took ~20 minutes to draw an NC map that's more compact than any of the proposals in this folder. Under the hypothetical below, Dems would pick up #NC02 & #NC13 and have an outside shot at #NC07, #NC08 & #NC11 if their stars were to align. https://t.co/EjCyGtnDNF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Will NC courts' invalidation of the current R gerrymander actually produce a more compact congressional map? Judging by the remedial drafts in this folder, I'm not so sure... https://t.co/LK2VFdJPSE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Currently Lean R at @CookPolitical but worth watching... #FL15 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this point, Dems have pretty much consolidated behind Assemb. Christy Smith (D), who has an ideal profile for #CA25. And tough to see how ex-Rep. Steve Knight (R) isn't the other top vote-getter given his name ID. Uygur/Papadopoulos unlikely to matter. Rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Race to the bottom? Cenk Uygur (D) & George Papadopoulos (R) are both running in the #CA25 special election, presumably to see who can muster a lower % of the vote... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Key finding: Warren’s weakness relative to Biden in the battlegrounds isn’t necessarily working-class whites; it’s moderate affluent whites. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@allymutnick @collinpeterson @liz_crampton Wondering what Peterson thinks about Toastique, the Gourmet Toast and Juice Bar — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: A Monday must-read: Longtime Dem Rep @collinpeterson tells @liz_crampton he sold his apartment near the Wharf not because… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's election led to a blue wave in 2018. But the focus on that blue wave has obscured something equally important: the red exodus. Today's GOP has become a much more Trump-centric party in Congress, just as it's become in the electorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House. Since then, 101 have either been defeated/retired/otherwise left office or are retiring in 2020. (h/t @Dchinni) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Peter King (R)'s retirement moves #NY02 from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. PVI: R+3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(h/t @notlarrysabato. also, Deeds clobbered his opponent by 35% overall b/c Charlottesville is in his district) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An exclamation point on how much ticket-splitting has declined: when Creigh Deeds (D) was first elected to the VA Senate in 2001, he took 88% of the vote in his heavily R home of rural Bath Co. (pop. 4k). On Tuesday, he lost it & came within two votes of losing his own precinct. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are a lot of places where VA Rs could have drawn additional Dem “vote sinks:” Fairfax, PWC, Henrico, Chesterfield, VIrginia Beach, etc. to achieve a solid 55+ seat majority. Instead, they drew a map that aimed for a 65+ seat R supermajority and wound up losing it all. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One of the reasons Ohio’s 12-4 GOP gerrymander survived the blue wave was that back in 2011, Rs sacrificed one of their own seats to draw a Dem “vote sink” in Columbus b/c they knew keeping the city cracked would be unsustainable. It paid off. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even under the hyper-aggressive 2011 GOP-drawn map, Trump won just 49/100 VA delegate districts in 2016. I just drew a *more* compact map under which Trump would've won 57/100 districts, including 52/100 by 10%+ (and, it has more majority-minority districts). Hindsight 20/20... https://t.co/Wldw8ml0cW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The irony is: had Republicans drawn a *less* aggressive gerrymander of the VA House of Delegates, they’d still have a majority. They spread themselves way too thin (esp. in NoVa/Richmond) & didn’t draw enough majority-minority seats, and it backfired in court/at ballot box. — PolitiTweet.org