Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ascension Parish (outside Baton Rouge) 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 46.1% per my benchmarks. He got 47.7%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tangipahoa (Edwards's home parish) is 97% in. Edwards (D) needed 51.0% per my benchmarks. He's at 53.4%. I'd rather be John Bel Edwards (D) right now. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The good news for Edwards (D): turnout is *down* from primary in Caldwell Parish (heavily R), but looks considerably *up* in completed/nearly completed parishes where Edwards is winning. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Caldwell Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 26.3% per my benchmarks. He got 25.1%. Looks like another close race brewing. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Red River Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 48.5% per my benchmarks. He got 50.9%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also: the *only* precinct in Morehouse that isn't reporting cast just 34 votes in the primary, so this impressive number looks extremely likely to hold up for Edwards (D). #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Edwards (D) at 51.4% in Morehouse Parish w/ 98% reporting. He only needed 46.3%, per my benchmarks. Some great news for the incumbent in Ralph Abraham's backyard. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Edwards (D) needs 43.4% in St. Mary Parish, per my benchmarks. He's at 43.8% w/ 80% reporting there so far. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only three LA parishes that gave Ralph Abraham (R) over 60% in primary are LaSalle, Richland & Franklin. Edwards (D) jumps from primary to runoff (EV only): LaSalle: 11% to 18% Franklin: 19% to 31% Richland: 27% to 40% Rispone might have an Abraham voter problem. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Edwards (D) jumps from primary early vote are much less impressive in St. Tammany, Ascension, Calcasieu, Lafayette than they are in #LA05 and East Baton Rouge. Mixed bag. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We can expect Edwards (D) to take a decent lead once Orleans/Caddo early votes are reported. Question is whether he can hold off Rispone (R) when E-Day votes arrive. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Edwards (D) beating his primary %s by an impressive amount, but reminder: we have no idea what E-Day vote looks like or to what extent early votes are cannibalizing Dems' E-Day votes. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

East Baton Rouge Parish early vote just in: Edwards (D) took 57% in the primary. Takes 65% in the runoff. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

LaSalle Parish (another heavy Abraham zone in #LA05): Edwards (D) took 11% of early vote in primary. He's at 18% in the runoff. Could Rispone be having a big problem consolidating the Abraham vote? #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Richland Parish (heart of Ralph Abraham's #LA05): Edwards (D) wins 40% of runoff early vote. He got 27% of it in the initial round. That's a pretty big jump. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early vote is way up vs. the 10/12 primary, but reminder: the numbers we're seeing now won't tell us much about who will win. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Michael Bloomberg fav/unfav among likely Dem caucusgoers in new @dmregister IA poll: 19/58 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JMilesColeman: Polls are closed in Louisiana. #lagov #lalege — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At the same time, this kind of result ⬇️ drives home why Buttigieg or Klobuchar could have such a tough time broadening their support beyond IA to less white states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd also like this poll if I were Sanders or Klobuchar. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow, new @DMRegister IA poll: Buttigieg 25% Warren 16% Biden 15% Sanders 15% Klobuchar 6% https://t.co/t8HBllf9Xo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2002, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) won reelection w/ 51.7% in a runoff, carrying 35 of Louisiana's 64 parishes. Tonight, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) might only need to win 20/64 parishes to win a second term. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Important follows for all things #LAGOV-related tonight: @JMilesColeman @WinWithJMC @MadelainePisani — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, here are my estimates of the raw votes Edwards (D) and Rispone (R) might need in each parish to break even statewide. #LAGOV https://t.co/0P1OPLEjEc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: here are my estimates of what % Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) needs in each parish to win reelection tonight. #LAGOV https://t.co/viHOcZXHQE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NC07 Rep. David Rouzer (R) moved to Wilmington last year, but he's really from 100+ miles north in Johnston Co. (still his political base), which is why Rs originally connected the two areas back in 2011. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

sorry, south and *east — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A weird issue the new GOP-passed NC congressional map wouldn't do anything to fix: about 23% of NC's population lives south and west of Charlotte, but there are currently zero members of Congress from there. #ncga — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems would much prefer NC courts enact a map like this one, which puts Fayetteville & the Sandhills together to create a new #NC08 that Clinton would've narrowly won in '16 & where state Sen. Ben Clark (D) could run in '20. Would effectively be 7R-5D, w/ 1 Lean D. https://t.co/QmY0FWEHuf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The key region in dispute? Fayetteville, Robeson Co., & the Sandhills. The new R-drawn map still divides Dem votes there between #NC08 & #NC09 to protect two R incumbents who live in the far-away Charlotte suburbs. https://t.co/96c4E76ClG — PolitiTweet.org