Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, Smith (D) is only losing LA County by 5% less than she's losing Ventura. As @baseballot noted, Katie Hill (D)'s 2018 margin was 12% better in LA than Ventura. My hypothesis: high-income Ds in Ventura mailed '20 ballots back at higher rate than low-income Ds in LA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be imprudent to call the race w/o knowing how many ballots are left to count, but the odds of Garcia (R) ultimately winning #CA25 seem pretty high to me right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Garcia (R) up 11% (about 16k votes) w/ 139k votes reporting. This is going to be very tough for Smith (D) to overcome. #CA25 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd be pretty surprised if the final #CA25 result isn't within 5% either way. But also I'd be surprised if Mike Garcia (R)'s initial lead is less than 5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Biden ends up winning #NE02 by 11% (as the new DCCC internal poll claims), he'd be winning the national popular vote by double digits & winning an Electoral landslide. Anything can happen, but I don't see a 10%+ margin in either direction as the most realistic outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It was never a competitive race. But Tricia Zunker (D) is on track to come within 12-15% of Tom Tiffany (R) in #WI07, which voted for Trump by 20%. Not a bad showing for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not impossible, and we still believe #NE02 is competitive. But a scenario I see much more frequently: challenger comes really close in a wave cycle, runs again, doesn't come nearly as close the next time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in 2018, Justice Democrats endorsed 45 candidates running for GOP-held House seats, including Kara Eastman in #NE02. *Zero* won. Elsewhere, Democratic candidates flipped 43 GOP seats, retaking the House majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, #NE02 would've likely been a missed opportunity for Dems no matter the primary outcome, since Ann Ashford (D) proved allergic to raising money. At this point, it would take a wave more massive than '18 to elect Eastman. Not impossible, but not likeliest outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Likely missed opportunity for House Ds as Kara Eastman (D) defeats Ann Ashford (D) in #NE02 primary to face GOP Rep. Don Bacon (R). If Eastman couldn't beat him in 2018, her chances aren't much better in 2020. But the district (one Electoral Vote) is a Toss Up for president. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Tom Tiffany (R) defeats Tricia Zunker (D) in #WI07 special election. But his margin will likely be considerably smaller than Trump's 20% margin in the district from '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although it would be impressive for Mike Garcia (R) to have an initial lead of, say, >10%, my expectation is that we won't have a clear picture of who has won #CA25 by tonight...and probably not by tomorrow night either. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Part of Mike Garcia (R)’s appeal in #CA25 (Clinton +7% in 2016) is that he’s a lot of things Trump’s not: a military veteran, son of a Mexican immigrant, even-keeled and well-credentialed. If he loses, close identification w/ Trump (not a new voting site) = the likely culprit. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

House R leaders making a big bet that POTUS’s last-minute trumpeting of the “Mike Garcia Congressional Race” will rally #CA25 Rs to vote. The problem is, it could end up rallying far more Dems to vote (and there are far more Ds than Rs who haven’t mailed ballots back yet). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CA_120: There’s a voting booth for #CA25 in Berkeley? That would be big news! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact check: Lancaster (most heavily non-white area of #CA25) was the only population center in #CA25 *without* an in-person vote center until this weekend. If Smith (D) pulls this out, decent chance she will have in-person provisionals to thank, not mail ballots. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another reason Garcia (R) has a shot: Rs have typically performed relatively well w/ vote-by-mail in CA, while Ds have typically dominated same-day registrants & provisionals (which skew younger & non-white). Latter type of vote likely to be way down this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, this would be first GOP pickup of a CA seat since *1998.* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Garcia (R) does hold on & win #CA25 (Clinton +7% in 2016), it should throw even more caution on predictions about partisan impact of VBM. In WI, where voters had to apply for a ballot w/ ID, Ds > Rs. In #CA25, all voters were sent ballots automatically and Rs overperforming. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems sounding alarm in #CA25 special. Of 108k ballots returned so far: 45% R, 35% D, per @paulmitche11 data - even though registered Ds outnumber Rs 39%-32% in #CA25. Little doubt Mike Garcia (R) ahead today. Christy Smith (D) has a lot of catching up to do in final days. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: Watch @Redistrict talking about his latest House overview: Read his full article here and subscribe: https://t.co/l0jY… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats' advantage in the House has grown, and it's no longer clear Republicans are the favorites to gain seats in November. Our latest (10,000 word) House Overview of competitive races is now available for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/p1Ap4axdRW https://t.co/2gfafz4TMs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The preponderance of data we've seen suggests Rep. Justin Amash (I) no longer has a realistic path to reelection in #MI03. Perhaps he made the same determination. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kirk_bado The filing deadline for independents in MI is July 16th...so he could still change his mind. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Abrams came within 1% of Kemp two years after Clinton lost by 5% - pretty impressive in a state where voting is deeply racially polarized. Anyone who were to outperform Clinton by 4% across the board nationally in ‘20 would be defeating Trump w/ 300+ Electoral votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are oceans of local talent in both parties effectively locked out of higher office b/c they’re wearing the wrong color jersey in their state. Criticism of Abrams for campaigning for VP seems fair. But argument she “couldn’t even get elected” #GAGOV in 2018 much less valid. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ConnieSchultz @SenSherrodBrown I've never argued OH couldn't be "in play." It could be. So could IA, CO or VA. But mathematically, these states are no longer *decisive* in any race for 270 Electoral votes. In the fall, Biden or Trump would be better off shipping their OH/IA volunteers into MI/PA/WI instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ConnieSchultz @SenSherrodBrown That happened pretty much everywhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ConnieSchultz @SenSherrodBrown And someone w/ the equivalent of Sen. Brown's appeal and skills would have won MI, PA or WI by 15%+ in 2018. Can Biden win OH? Sure, in a landslide. Is OH even close to being decisive in the Electoral College anymore? No. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Easy to gawk at disinfectant dumpster 🔥. But why POTUS’s steady negative trend w/ *swing* voters? A few basics briefings lack: 1) clear plan to expand testing to levels sufficient to reopen 2) empathy/compassion for loss 3) ways people can help beyond following CDC guidelines — PolitiTweet.org