Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@posglen @aedwardslevy @JessicaTaylor I've seen enough to take down my patio umbrella — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big difference from 2016: in this poll, Trump leads TX's college+ whites 49-42. In 2016, by my estimates, Trump carried them 61-33. This is a massive suburban defection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New TX @QuinnipiacPoll: Biden 45, Trump 44 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One divide that stands out to me from latest ABC/WaPo poll: "Would you prefer to vote...by mail or in person?" College+ whites: 51%-47% mail Non-college whites: 66%-31% in person Black: 60%-36% in person Hispanic: 60%-37% in person — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 1986, the race for #GA05 was a brutal, protracted primary/runoff between civil rights icons John Lewis (D) and Julian Bond (D). In 2020, it's an all-virtual affair at warp speed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Election Day can’t come soon enough for Dems... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Yamiche: Awful, awful news: Civil Rights Icon Rep John Lewis has died. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I stand by this call from 23 days ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: A strong interview with @davidshor here, much of which I agree with. One thing I'd flag and reiterate is that the Lafayette… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hot off the press, our new @CookPolitical House ratings w/ 20 changes. Updated seat count: 221 Solid/Likely/Lean D 189 Solid/Likely/Lean R 25 Toss Ups https://t.co/StuidXmxtc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally, six GOP incumbents move out of Solid R into @CookPolitical's Likely R category, which is essentially an anti-Trump wave watch list: #CA04 Tom McClintock (R) #NC09 Dan Bishop (R) #OH12 Troy Balderson (R) #TX03 Van Taylor (R) #TX06 Ron Wright (R) #TX25 Roger Williams (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, six Dem incumbents move into safer @CookPolitical categories: #PA08 Matt Cartwright (D) Toss Up to Lean D #CA39 Gil Cisneros (D) Lean D to Likely D Likely D to Solid D: #AZ02 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) #CO06 Jason Crow (D) #MN03 Dean Phillips (D) #VA10 Jennifer Wexton (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, four GOP incumbents move from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical: #KS02 Steve Watkins (R) #MN01 Jim Hagedorn (R) #NC08 Richard Hudson (R) #WA03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's simultaneously possible for Ohio to be in play - and for it to be a poor strategic decision for either campaign to spend $$ there (right now only the Trump campaign is). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, four GOP incumbents move from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical: #KS02 Steve Watkins (R) #ME01 Jim Hagedorn (R) #NC08 Richard Hudson (R) #WA03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Most notably, three GOP incumbents and one open seat move from Lean R to Toss Up: #IN05 OPEN (Brooks) (R) #NE02 Don Bacon (R) #OH01 Steve Chabot (R) #TX21 Chip Roy (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because the erosion in President Trump's support is disproportionately occurring among college-educated whites, it's especially acute in suburban House districts with high numbers of them - and these @CookPolitical rating changes reflect that. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03) https://t.co/58FyEjkERG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. https://t.co/30m5A0jBVo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction. https://t.co/Bb9UCO1Jm7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This morning, @CookPolitical will be moving 20 House race ratings, all towards the same party. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden is ahead by 9.1% in today's @FiveThirtyEight average. Bottom line: Trump would need to close that gap by at least 5 points to be highly competitive in the race for the Electoral College. https://t.co/bzoeFgK5nZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty amazing that Trump is at 35% w/ Hispanics but just 31% w/ college+ whites in this @QuinnipiacPoll (small samples I know). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tough to find a district that's morphed as rapidly as #TX24 in the DFW suburbs. True story: In 2012, it was majority white and voted for Mitt Romney by 22%. In 2016, it voted for Trump by just 6%. In 2018, it voted for Beto by 4%. Today, it's majority non-white. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Random observation: FL & AZ have the highest Hispanic shares of the six core battleground states, a demographic where Biden is underperforming. But Biden might not be paying a price b/c FL & AZ also have the highest shares of seniors, where he's overperforming. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Paul LePage-endorsed former state Rep. Dale Crafts (R) wins the GOP primary in #ME02 for the right to take on Rep. Jared Golden (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: M.J. Hegar (D) defeats Royce West (D) in the #TXSEN Dem runoff and will face Sen. John Cornyn (R) in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: former White House physician Ronny Jackson (R) has defeated Josh Winegarner (R) in the #TX13 runoff. Trump won the district 80%-17% in 2016, so to call Jackson a lock in November would be an understatement. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Candace Valenzuela (D) defeats Kim Olson (D) in the #TX24 Dem runoff and will face Beth Van Duyne (R) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow: Kathaleen Wall (R) losing the #TX22 runoff to Troy Nehls (R) 71%-29% after self-funding $7.4 million. She spent $6 million to lose in a nearby district in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org