Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*to use a well-established political data science term — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We talk often about how working-class whites are overrepresented in the Electoral College battleground. But Black voters punch above their weight in those states too, and restoring turnout to 2012/Obama-era proportions would be a big f****** deal.* https://t.co/t8B0rG5Bky — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*to use a well-established political data science term — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We talk often about how working-class whites are overrepresented in the Electoral College battleground. But Black voters punch above their weight in those states too, and restoring turnout to 2016 proportions would be a big f****** deal. https://t.co/nnDbPYfBfC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t expect Harris to change anyone’s vote choice. But in terms of $$ and minority engagement/turnout, hard to see her as anything other than a net plus for Biden. https://t.co/9QYyQLEVmk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ForecasterEnten: We have now seen a bunch of data now that suggests voters that at least initially voters like Harris and the decision… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Good story by ⁦@reidepstein⁩: a lot of votes to be won if Biden can simply disabuse voters of Trump’s attack that he wants to defund the police. https://t.co/Pa3wamPBrZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @baseballot: FiveThirtyEight is out with a big project this week—no, not that one. Introducing our state-by-state guide to voting in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @electionsmith: In Florida's 2016 GE, 90k mail ballots arrived at county offices on Election Day. 80k more VBM ballots arrived one day… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Can't help but think all the USPS coverage is going to shift millions of D ballots from mail to early in-person/dropbox voting where available, mitigating some of this problem. https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Almost nowhere in TX is this happening faster than in Collin County, where we just moved #TX03 from Likely R to Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And I've got a Brooklyn Bridge to sell you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Life comes at you fast. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BruneElections: The craziest part of the 2020 campaign is still how the Biden campaign went from being on life support to an unstoppabl… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@noahamac By "merge," I mean combine the most Dem parts of each and put the most GOP parts of each in separate districts. My hypothetical map has equally populous districts +/-1k residents as of 2018 estimates. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"We can't underestimate the number of election administration errors" we're headed for, an alarmed House GOP staffer monitoring fall preparedness just told me. The staffer cites "egregious" postal delays, lack of poll workers/training and overwhelmed election administrators. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Same is true if Candace Valenzuela (D) flips suburban Dallas's #TX24: Rs could easily merge her w/ Collin Allred (D) in #TX32. And if Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) flips suburban Houston's #TX22, Rs could easily merge him w/ Lizzie Fletcher (D) in #TX07. Expect 2021 drama. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A huge caveat if Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) flips Gwinnett, GA's #GA07 this November: in 2021, GA Rs could easily merge her and Lucy McBath (D) into one super-blue district in the northern ATL suburbs (#GA06, in the hypothetical below) - essentially flipping the seat back. https://t.co/TMNsFmfnZi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@vetthebern The ACS data for eligible adults is much closer to 37% non-white. But that doesn't necessarily reflect the reality, b/c the electorate was only 27% non-white in 2016/2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: RDD pollsters, like Marist, take a sample of adults and then screen to RVs based on self-reported registration. If your res… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per Census, 27%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NPR/Marist just out shows Biden leading 53%-42%. But anyone else find it strange their sample of RVs is 37% non-white? Non-whites were ~27% of all voters in 2016 and I'd be surprised if they were >30% in 2020. https://t.co/rc6iik8hFr — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're also revising our @CookPolitical House outlook from a net gain of up to five for either party to a net gain of between zero and 10 seats for Democrats. Full analysis ($): https://t.co/njs2zsqRb6 https://t.co/y2MbvdEKID — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: 15 more House rating changes, including 11 in Democrats’ direction and 4 in Republicans’ direction. We’ve now shifted 46 (!) House ratings in the past month, including 40 towards Ds. https://t.co/qnYe1ez3G5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've got 15 House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical this morning. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: These are just staggering sums. Biden raised just over $60 million — in *all of 2019* — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BresPolitico: I’ve been covering Congress a long time, more than 26 years. Never seen anything like what this candidate is saying. Yet… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Put these lists together and the total - 15 - is, rather amazingly, higher than the total number of GOP women currently in the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, there are 7 more GOP women running against Dem incumbents in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column: #IA01 Ashley Hinson #MN07 Michelle Fischbach #NM02 Yvette Herrell #NY11 Nicole Malliotakis #NY22 Claudia Tenney #OK05 Terry Neese/Stephanie Bice (runoff) #SC01 Nancy Mace — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Four GOP women are basically guaranteed to come to Congress in 2021: #GA14 Marjorie Taylor Greene #IL15 Mary Miller #MI10 Lisa McClain #TN01 Diana Harshbarger Four more w/ strong opportunities in open seats: #CO03 Boebert, #IN05 Spartz, #IA02 Miller-Meeks, #TX24 Van Duyne — PolitiTweet.org